KZL - Kagara Limited

[Aargh!]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Just reading the Huntley's recommendation again and wonder if it might now be unduly pessimistic. A few days after that posting this opinion was expressed in the Australian

Feb 19
"Kagara Zinc (KZL) 39.5c

IN the grand mining tradition of hiving off fashionable commodity plays to unsuspecting investors, the copper and zinc miner hopes to parcel up its Queensland gold tenements and float them off as Mungana Goldmines.

Fair enough, too. There is zero interest in base metals but gold is attracting tentative interest given the record Australian dollar gold price.

According to Kagara, Mungana will consist of the Red Dome and Mungana porphyry deposits, containing an inferred resource of 1.6million ounces (plus copper and silver). Red Dome was mined profitably by Nuigini Mining between 1985 and 1996. Kagara argues that if Nuigini could turn a quid at the then going rate of $500 an ounce, the project should be a nice earner at the current $1500 an ounce.

We will see. In the meantime, Kagara's zinc and copper plants at Thalanga and Mt Garnet have been hit by flooding, but deliveries have not been "materially affected".

Kagara posted record December-quarter copper output at a margin of US68c a pound over cash costs, but zinc was extracted at a skinny buffer of US15c/lb.

While the operations are cashflow positive, provisional pricing adjustments plunged Kagara into the red. "No base metal miner in Australia is profitable at present and Kagara is no exception," it said.

Kagara is a hold. The company stands to unlock value from its gold assets but it really needs a sustained base metals recovery. "




I tend to agree. With out doubt it has been a difficult time for them and Q1 2009 may yet turn out to be the ugliest quarter, but with rising metals prices and Mungana Gold being prepped for sale the outlook is somewhat better.

Base metals prices are a clear enough story. December quarter was cash flow positive from operations with cash costs of 1.20 for copper and 0.41 for zinc. They should have moved a little lower as they have seen a full quarter with low exchange rate and low fuel costs. Meanwhile we have seen copper and zinc move above the December quarter average prices.

it will be interesting to see the progress on the costs as output increases. Copper is expected to increase from 26,000T to 35 to 40,000 T this year and zinc is due to increase from 40,000T to more than 100,000T by 2011.

The big hit they took in Q4 08 from provisional pricing adjustments should not be repeated - a much smaller impact if any in Q1 and may turn positive in Q2 if metals prices hold.

Debt is a problem that should be brought back in to line by a successful float of Mungana Gold. The sale is scheduled for June. They have announced resource upgrades and scoping study results in support of the sale. The scoping study numbers were a bit ambitious in terms of metals price assumptions but estimated production costs of A$300/oz should generate some decent interest.

KZL looks like it was being priced for failure but the corner may have been turned and if a survivor then there could some decent upside here.

Nice post JBNimble. Something stirred today, up 30%. Wonder if anything has leaked....? 100 characteeeeers.....

 

[J.B.Nimble]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Nice post JBNimble. Something stirred today, up 30%. Wonder if anything has leaked....? 100 characteeeeers.....

Crikey - 30% up. Was it something I said? LOL. Glad I moved on this hunch last week.

On the lookout for more Lazarus stocks...

 

[michael_selway]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Crikey - 30% up. Was it something I said? LOL. Glad I moved on this hunch last week.

On the lookout for more Lazarus stocks...

Wow thats amazing today

0854 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS downgrades Kagara Zinc (KZL.AU) to sell from neutral on risks associated with miner's debts. KZL needs to refinance two debt facilities totaling A$150m by end of October and UBS says it believes the miner has insufficient cash to repay either of the facilities. "Without certainty on the method of readjusting the balance sheet, we believe an investment in KZL is risky," UBS says. Target price cut to 30 cents from 43 cents; KZL last traded at 49.5 cents. (APW)

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 30.1 -17.5 -6.5 8.8
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

 

[J.B.Nimble]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Well UBS sure can pick them...

KZL went on a nice little run from mid 30s to almost 80 in the Xmas/New Year rally on much weaker news. I'm hoping for similar mileage on this run.

 

[Kryzz]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

KZL might be ready to pop, volume is picking up in this current basing pattern, nearing resistance at .80 c...

 

[John4788]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Looking real nice . . . . lots of upside to come IMHO. I hope that there won't be another "please explain" from the ASX ?

John
Melbourne

 

[YELNATS]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Well UBS sure can pick them...

KZL went on a nice little run from mid 30s to almost 80 in the Xmas/New Year rally on much weaker news. I'm hoping for similar mileage on this run.

Yeah, and what does UBS stand for? Uninformed B*ll Sh*t? What would a Swiss bank know about Aussie mining?

PS I hold and hope.

 

[J.B.Nimble]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

KZL was bit of a laggard when the resurgence in copper stocks started. With a slightly highish cost of production they are more leveraged to the copper (and zinc) price than some of the other stars out there at the moment. Fear factor has kept them down for longer than they deserved but base metal prices and copper in particular have lifted enough to shake off the fear. Now they have some catching up to do and I expect this run up could continue for a while - in no hurry to take profits on this...

 

[J.B.Nimble]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Interesting developments that may shed additional light on the spectacular gains in the latter part of last week - from an open of 0.60 on Wednesday to as high as 1.24 on Friday morning. Reports coming through of approaches for Mungana ahead of the IPO. A succesful sale would clear debt and not hurt sentiment at all - next few weeks should be interesting.

April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Kagara Ltd., an Australian zinc and copper producer, has received approaches for its gold assets that are being readied for a A$150 million ($108 million) initial share sale in July to help reduce debt.

“We are not just confining ourselves to the IPO route,” Joe Treacy, a director with Perth-based Kagara, said today in an interview. “We’ve also had quite a lot of expressions of interests from other companies who are in the gold space looking for gold assets.”

Kagara is divesting the gold assets to help repay A$150 million of debt and is in refinancing talks with lenders, Treacy said. Rio Tinto Group and Alcoa Inc. are among global mining companies selling shares, bonds or assets to trim debt and boost cash as the global recession crimps demand, cuts metals prices and slashes earnings.

“We will be guided at the end of the day by what the market can bear,” Treacy said. “At the end of the day, we will weigh up all those options.”

Kagara jumped to a six-month high in Sydney trading, gaining 16 percent to A$1 at the 4:10 p.m. Sydney time close on the Australian stock exchange. The stock has more than doubled this month and has a market value of A$250 million.

“We are not seeing anything unusual” on the share register, Treacy said. This month’s rebound in copper and zinc prices has also boosted the stock, he said.

Existing Plant

The new company, Mungana Goldmines Ltd., would have the rights to all the gold production from Kagara’s projects in north Queensland state. Mungana could produce as much as 80,000 ounces a year initially before increasing output to 100,000 ounces, he said. First production could start within six months at a cost of A$20 million to modify the existing plant, he added.

Kagara is due to repay a A$50 million loan from Westpac Banking Corp. by June 30 and a A$100 million loan from National Australia Bank Ltd. by October 31, he said.

“We’ve got to talk to the banks about what is an acceptable level of debt,” Treacy said. “We will reduce the debt to the level that the banks and ourselves are comfortable with and that number really hasn’t been agreed.”

Kagara may receive between A$25 million and A$50 million from the initial share sale, he said. UBS AG analyst Jo Battershill cut his rating on the stock to “sell” from “neutral” on April 3 due to uncertainty over refinancing options.

The company is unlikely to post a profit this half amid a slump in zinc and copper prices earlier this year, Treacy said. Kagara posted a net loss of A$34 million in the six months ended Dec. 31.

“With operating cashflow insufficient to meet principal debt repayments, refinancing could potentially become a stumbling block” UBS’s Battershill said in an April 3 report.

 

[legs]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

So whats happening here?

Share purchase plan in place soon,

Suspended only because of this but was supposed to be up today... why isnt it??

Anyone any ideas?

Might be bad news that removed for ASX200, some fund managers will dump it due to contravening their fund rules??

 

[UMike]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

So whats happening here?

Share purchase plan in place soon,

Suspended only because of this but was supposed to be up today... why isnt it??

Anyone any ideas?

Might be bad news that removed for ASX200, some fund managers will dump it due to contravening their fund rules??

Dunno what the exact nature of what is going on, but this is C&Ped from their Ann 5/6/09

REQUEST FOR EXTENSION OF VOLUNTARY SUSPENSION
Further to our request of 2 June 2009, Kagara Ltd advises that it now anticipates being in a position
to make an announcement to the market with respect to its proposed significant capital raising on
Tuesday, 9 June 2009. However, to enable the book build which forms part of the institutional
component of the capital raising to be conducted, Kagara Ltd requests that its securities continue in
voluntary suspension until pre-open on Thursday, 11 June 2009.
The Company is not aware of any reason why the requested extension of voluntary suspension
should not be granted.

I'd have thought they'd done this "book build" at the last Capital rasing done not that long ago (4mths ago?)

 

[Ferret]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

A 1 for 1 rights issue at 60c - nearly half the last traded price.

The rights aren't tradable and it is ex the rights entitlement when it recommences trade on Thursday. So no chance to sell out before the price drop if you didn't want to take them up.

I don't think thats looking after your shareholders. If you're not an Aus or NZ resident you might not even be legally allowed to take up the rights - thats if they even send you the personalised application forms. Not happy.

 

[Aargh!]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

A 1 for 1 rights issue at 60c - nearly half the last traded price.

The rights aren't tradable and it is ex the rights entitlement when it recommences trade on Thursday. So no chance to sell out before the price drop if you didn't want to take them up.

I don't think thats looking after your shareholders. If you're not an Aus or NZ resident you might not even be legally allowed to take up the rights - thats if they even send you the personalised application forms. Not happy.

There's some information at the end of the presentation regarding specific countries and relevant restrictions.

The Chinese again swoop down on another mining company.

KZL will reduce gearing from 39% to 5% and have a short term cash facility of $10m to cover operating costs. I didn't realise the were in such bad shape.

 

[UMike]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

A 1 for 1 rights issue at 60c - nearly half the last traded price.

The rights aren't tradable and it is ex the rights entitlement when it recommences trade on Thursday. So no chance to sell out before the price drop if you didn't want to take them up.

I don't think thats looking after your shareholders. If you're not an Aus or NZ resident you might not even be legally allowed to take up the rights - thats if they even send you the personalised application forms. Not happy.

Also how and why did they come up with that figure of 60c. Seems way too chep considering the potential that the company has as indicated by the recent SP rise.

An uneducated 80c to $1 would of been more appropriate.

Lucky I got back in a week ago.

 

[Evo]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

60c is a good price considering it was below that for most of the last year. Not too many institutions would want to take part if the price was too high. Brilliant outcome IMO and this will be trading well over $1 in the coming weeks/months now that the debt problems are all sorted. Lovely company to holw onto this one!

 

[doogie_goes_off]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Not the only company to sell up too cheap at the moment - everyone's queuing up to raise money to stabilise their balance sheet.

 

[pheadlam19]

Kagara

Kagara is about to have a share purchase plan. Would that be good money after bad ?: It closed at $0.90 on Friday and the offer price will be at $0.60. What do you think ?

 

[Ferret]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

The 90c price is ex the rights entitlement. So at the moment thats what the market thinks the diluted shares are worth and taking up the rights would give you a quick 30c per share profit. Mind you, you lost about 30c a share the day it went ex rights, so taking up the rights is really only getting your own money back.

 

[Boggo]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Seems to be making a recovery over the last few days, especially today.

What are the latest views or opinions.

(click to enlarge)

 

[J.B.Nimble]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Seems to be making a recovery over the last few days, especially today.

What are the latest views or opinions.

(click to enlarge)

Forget the chart for the moment...

Shares on issue before cap raise =256mill
Average sp over preceding couple of weeks ~ 1.18
MC over that period ~302 mill
Debt = 136 mill (at least, this is what they declare as their intention to be paid down)
Therefore EV = 438mill
Mining sector has had approximately 10% pull back since cap raise announced so adjust this EV back to 400 mill
Cash post cap raise is expected to be 83mill (working cap and funds for lounge lizard)
Suggests possible new MC around old EV + cash = 483 mill
Funds being raised = up to 262mill @ 0.6, so up to 437 mill new shares
Total shares post cap raise = (up to) 693 mill
Possible sp = 483/693 = 0.69

And what did we close at? 0.745
That feels reasonable based on straight maths. But what about sentiment?

KZL carried a discount due to the debt risks. That discount should disappear.

They now have the cash to turn on a cash flow from Lounge Lizard.

And in the wings we still have the Mungana IPO - will it still go ahead or will they choose to hold the asset? This is one of the interesting questions for KZL. I suspect it depends on whether the sp shows some acknowledgement of the value of Mungana. If not I guess they will continue and flick it out. Impact on sp if they do? Dunno - the market appears to have only a marginally better understanding of the value of cash.

Post cap raise this is a very different looking company - the risks and the desperation are largely gone. We should see a lot less volatility related to their balance sheet and a closer relationship to the state of the underlying metals markets. Personally, I like them at this price and I'm taking up the offer.