michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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KZL - Kagara Limited
- Thread starter Kauri
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- kagara limited kagara zinc kzl
Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
well I am on the ZFX train (got a whole carriage) so not worried about that one bolting out of the station (although ZFX is the slowest moving train of them all (no doubt becuase it's the one im on)) but it's the cariages on the other trains (that are overtaking me) that I'm crying over. Although we always want to be on the train that we arnt and never the one we are on for some reason
well I am on the ZFX train (got a whole carriage) so not worried about that one bolting out of the station (although ZFX is the slowest moving train of them all (no doubt becuase it's the one im on)) but it's the cariages on the other trains (that are overtaking me) that I'm crying over. Although we always want to be on the train that we arnt and never the one we are on for some reason
Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
Its never too late to get on...
I actually topped up last week at $4+, this one still has a long way 2 go...
But yeh, i know how u feel, it feels like only yesterday when i was deciding whether or not 2 buy TZN @ 74c !
(and yeh, i decided not to, wasnt confident enough in zinc prices holding up until production and that time was also when zinc spot price went from 1.08 to 89c, so didnt have the balls to jump in)
clowboy said:
Its never too late to get on...
I actually topped up last week at $4+, this one still has a long way 2 go...
But yeh, i know how u feel, it feels like only yesterday when i was deciding whether or not 2 buy TZN @ 74c !
(and yeh, i decided not to, wasnt confident enough in zinc prices holding up until production and that time was also when zinc spot price went from 1.08 to 89c, so didnt have the balls to jump in)
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
Yeah same, its was actually quite scary back then i remember, didnt sell though which was brave, ZFX that is
Zinc Producers: ZFX, PEM, KZL, TZN, CBH (wish I could get the whole set of these earlier)
Soon to be: HER, AIM, JML, INL, UCL
Thing is, the "begining of the end" hasnt even come yet, and who knows how high Zinc Prices will go if this actually occurs (LME stocks down to 0), and how long it will last...
thx
MS
nizar said:Its never too late to get on...
I actually topped up last week at $4+, this one still has a long way 2 go...
But yeh, i know how u feel, it feels like only yesterday when i was deciding whether or not 2 buy TZN @ 74c !
(and yeh, i decided not to, wasnt confident enough in zinc prices holding up until production and that time was also when zinc spot price went from 1.08 to 89c, so didnt have the balls to jump in)
Yeah same, its was actually quite scary back then i remember, didnt sell though which was brave, ZFX that is
Zinc Producers: ZFX, PEM, KZL, TZN, CBH (wish I could get the whole set of these earlier)
Soon to be: HER, AIM, JML, INL, UCL
Thing is, the "begining of the end" hasnt even come yet, and who knows how high Zinc Prices will go if this actually occurs (LME stocks down to 0), and how long it will last...
thx
MS
Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
yeh i could tell u hold ZFX through the ramping...
are u sure TZN is producing yet?
AIM target production is june 2007 yeh? I dont know if zinc price can maintain these levels till then but of course u dont have to hold all the way...
michael_selway said:Yeah same, its was actually quite scary back then i remember, didnt sell though which was brave, ZFX that is
Zinc Producers: ZFX, PEM, KZL, TZN, CBH (wish I could get the whole set of these earlier)
Soon to be: HER, AIM, JML, INL, UCL
Thing is, the "begining of the end" hasnt even come yet, and who knows how high Zinc Prices will go if this actually occurs (LME stocks down to 0), and how long it will last...
thx
MS
yeh i could tell u hold ZFX through the ramping...
are u sure TZN is producing yet?
AIM target production is june 2007 yeh? I dont know if zinc price can maintain these levels till then but of course u dont have to hold all the way...
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060421/pdf/3wdwt4l8qp9zj.pdf
Quaterly out, what do u guys think? Better or Worse then expected?
thx
MS
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060421/pdf/3wdwt4l8qp9zj.pdf
Quaterly out, what do u guys think? Better or Worse then expected?
thx
MS
Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
rederob, tech and others holding KZL
i checked KZL on the asx b4 and got a pleasant suprise (not the price, LOL) when i saw the presentation
i was aware they were growing copper production but until now i didnt hear about growth in zinc production, but on page 3, 50ktonnes in FY2007 and 100ktonnes in FY2009 compared to 34ktonnes this year FY2006
(copper growth: 7ktonnes this year, 30ktonnes in FY2007 and 45ktonnes in FY2009)
Looks like they are having a rest in 2008, LOL
rederob, tech and others holding KZL
i checked KZL on the asx b4 and got a pleasant suprise (not the price, LOL) when i saw the presentation
i was aware they were growing copper production but until now i didnt hear about growth in zinc production, but on page 3, 50ktonnes in FY2007 and 100ktonnes in FY2009 compared to 34ktonnes this year FY2006
(copper growth: 7ktonnes this year, 30ktonnes in FY2007 and 45ktonnes in FY2009)
Looks like they are having a rest in 2008, LOL
michael_selway
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Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
hehe yeah was wondering why no 2008?
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060516/pdf/3wrst0n28zhs0.pdf
Hey nizar, in terms of production volume growth, is OXR more or KZL in 2007 and 2008?
thx
MS
nizar said:
hehe yeah was wondering why no 2008?
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060516/pdf/3wrst0n28zhs0.pdf
Hey nizar, in terms of production volume growth, is OXR more or KZL in 2007 and 2008?
thx
MS
Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
I dont know if OXR will see appreciable production growth until Prominent Hill starts production 2nd half of 2008 and it will produce:
100ktonnes copper pa
130koz gold pa
currently gold from sepon is about 170koz pa, sepon copper 60ktonnes pa
golden grove zinc 140ktonnes pa (but 1st quarter was 40k so maybe higher?) and copper i cant remember
For full details, the BFS is supposed to be ready by mid-2006
didnt really answer ur question tho sorry
I dont know if OXR will see appreciable production growth until Prominent Hill starts production 2nd half of 2008 and it will produce:
100ktonnes copper pa
130koz gold pa
currently gold from sepon is about 170koz pa, sepon copper 60ktonnes pa
golden grove zinc 140ktonnes pa (but 1st quarter was 40k so maybe higher?) and copper i cant remember
For full details, the BFS is supposed to be ready by mid-2006
didnt really answer ur question tho sorry
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Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
I am not happy with KZL's "collar" on copper prices, but at least into 2007 they should do OK.
Luckily KZL do not hedge zinc - if they did, I would not touch them.
Over the next few months I am closing out of my long term holds where they are too heavily hedged to take advantage of spot (especially where gold is concerned).
I had a buy order on BHP, but tonight I will withdraw it as I think there is more adrenalin rush in midcap producers - can't believe BHP did not fall more than it did today, can you?
I added to only 2 of my existing positions today after they filled "gaps" - KZL & OXR.
I believe these companies will easily surpass their highs of last week as both will report astonishing profits at the end of the financial year, but have even bigger bottom lines next.
I would not have bought more if I was not confident about the fundamentals for copper and zinc: In the simplest terms, they are both in very high demand, and extremely tight supply.
Cap this with ongoing global industrial production that keeps getting revised upwards and the formula for medium term success is complete.
Nizarnizar said:
I am not happy with KZL's "collar" on copper prices, but at least into 2007 they should do OK.
Luckily KZL do not hedge zinc - if they did, I would not touch them.
Over the next few months I am closing out of my long term holds where they are too heavily hedged to take advantage of spot (especially where gold is concerned).
I had a buy order on BHP, but tonight I will withdraw it as I think there is more adrenalin rush in midcap producers - can't believe BHP did not fall more than it did today, can you?
I added to only 2 of my existing positions today after they filled "gaps" - KZL & OXR.
I believe these companies will easily surpass their highs of last week as both will report astonishing profits at the end of the financial year, but have even bigger bottom lines next.
I would not have bought more if I was not confident about the fundamentals for copper and zinc: In the simplest terms, they are both in very high demand, and extremely tight supply.
Cap this with ongoing global industrial production that keeps getting revised upwards and the formula for medium term success is complete.
michael_selway
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Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
Oh ic, yeah 2008 might be a bit late for the OXR
KZL growth does look promising actually
KZL - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 7.2 19.9 61.1 40.1
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 0.0
thx
MS
nizar said:
Oh ic, yeah 2008 might be a bit late for the OXR
KZL growth does look promising actually
KZL - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 7.2 19.9 61.1 40.1
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 0.0
thx
MS
Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
MS - thx for that i wasnt aware earnings for 2007 was upgraded to above 60c. This is what i expected to happen immediately after the quarterly, but it was only upgraded to 50cps, but at least now they revised it upwards
Seems for all zincers, eps forecast for 2008 is lower than 2007, most likely analysts/brokers do this due to zinc prices falling. I personally think that with KZL, the increase in production would more than offset any fall in spot prices. ie. earnings will be stable
Rederob - regarding the collar on copper prices, to be honest i didnt know what to make of this announcement and whether it was good or bad. But if my memory serves me correctly i remember us rallying 10% on that day on high volumes, 2/3 of the buying happened in the last hour after announcement was made. So the market mustve liked it
MS - thx for that i wasnt aware earnings for 2007 was upgraded to above 60c. This is what i expected to happen immediately after the quarterly, but it was only upgraded to 50cps, but at least now they revised it upwards
Seems for all zincers, eps forecast for 2008 is lower than 2007, most likely analysts/brokers do this due to zinc prices falling. I personally think that with KZL, the increase in production would more than offset any fall in spot prices. ie. earnings will be stable
Rederob - regarding the collar on copper prices, to be honest i didnt know what to make of this announcement and whether it was good or bad. But if my memory serves me correctly i remember us rallying 10% on that day on high volumes, 2/3 of the buying happened in the last hour after announcement was made. So the market mustve liked it
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Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
What I meant about the copper "collar" is explained below:
The good news is that the flat forward exchange rate of about 70 cents is likely to work considerably in favour of KZL, as in my estimation the AUD will probably achieve parity with the USD within the 4 year term.
nizarnizar said:Rederob - regarding the collar on copper prices, to be honest i didnt know what to make of this announcement and whether it was good or bad. But if my memory serves me correctly i remember us rallying 10% on that day on high volumes, 2/3 of the buying happened in the last hour after announcement was made. So the market mustve liked it
What I meant about the copper "collar" is explained below:
Following the recent upgrade of the Balcooma Copper Reserve and the option to acquire the Thalanga plant being exercised, a hedging program covering 48,000 tonnes of copper has been finalised. This program, which matures in 48 equal instalments commencing January 2007, is a zero cost stepped cap collar arrangement having a floor price of US $1.30 per pound of copper with a cascading ceiling price of US $3.49 per pound of copper for calendar year 2007, US $2.90 for 2008, US $2.36 for 2009 and US $1.81 for 2010. The Company also put in place US $137.6 million of FX protection, at a flat exchange rate of $0.6993 over the 4 year period. Under this arrangement Kagara is guaranteed a minimum price of A $1.86 per pound of copper and receives the spot price for copper up to the ceiling prices.
Thus, the bad news is that with copper presently well above the 2007 ceiling price, the 12,000 tonnes of copper delivered into the hedging program each year may see significant revenue foregone.The good news is that the flat forward exchange rate of about 70 cents is likely to work considerably in favour of KZL, as in my estimation the AUD will probably achieve parity with the USD within the 4 year term.
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Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
Anyone know what percentage of copper production is hedged ?
haven't they also got a hedge on lead ?
Cheers
Coyotte
Anyone know what percentage of copper production is hedged ?
haven't they also got a hedge on lead ?
Cheers
Coyotte
Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
48ktonnes is hedged
from 2007-2010, KZL will probably produce 150ktonnes+ so this will be about one third.
35k in 2007 and 2008, 45k in 2009 and 2010
(assuming 2008=2007 and 2010=2009)
other figures are from the presentation released yesterday to asx
coyotte said:Anyone know what percentage of copper production is hedged ?
haven't they also got a hedge on lead ?
Cheers
Coyotte
48ktonnes is hedged
from 2007-2010, KZL will probably produce 150ktonnes+ so this will be about one third.
35k in 2007 and 2008, 45k in 2009 and 2010
(assuming 2008=2007 and 2010=2009)
other figures are from the presentation released yesterday to asx
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Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
well on those figures @ PE 15
Max present Value $3.00 ?
michael_selway said:
well on those figures @ PE 15
Max present Value $3.00 ?
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
hi how did u get $3
thx
MS
coyotte said:
hi how did u get $3
thx
MS
Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
well coyote as u said
pe of 15
61cents*15 = $9.15
do u want to pay $4 odd now or $9 next year.. LOL as if eps for 2007 will still be 61c by jan07!!
remember about 1-2months ago KZL eps was only 42.2 for 2007
analysts/brokers are always upgrading their earnings due to increasing spot prices of zinc. The spot price will continue to go up as LME supplies are depleting.. Grupo Mexico mine strike and the other strike in Sth America are only adding to supply constraints
will the price stay at $4 and then in one day once it hits january 1st, 2007 jump to $9... NO, it will be gradual, remember their reserves will be upgraded later on this year i feel, plus exploration upside..
future earnings potential is what drives the share price of miners, why do u think paladin is worth $2billion+ when i hasnt earned anything... and BDG... future earnings potential is the driver...
well coyote as u said
pe of 15
61cents*15 = $9.15
do u want to pay $4 odd now or $9 next year.. LOL as if eps for 2007 will still be 61c by jan07!!
remember about 1-2months ago KZL eps was only 42.2 for 2007
analysts/brokers are always upgrading their earnings due to increasing spot prices of zinc. The spot price will continue to go up as LME supplies are depleting.. Grupo Mexico mine strike and the other strike in Sth America are only adding to supply constraints
will the price stay at $4 and then in one day once it hits january 1st, 2007 jump to $9... NO, it will be gradual, remember their reserves will be upgraded later on this year i feel, plus exploration upside..
future earnings potential is what drives the share price of miners, why do u think paladin is worth $2billion+ when i hasnt earned anything... and BDG... future earnings potential is the driver...
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Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc
Just going off your footnote about discounting for future RISK
Current Forcast (@ this stage of Fin/year 19.9c p/s @ a PE 15 (max for a Oz mining stock) would put its TODAYS value @ max $3.00 (anything else is forcasting)
I Hold and probablly will continue to hold KZL
didn't mean to upseat the applecart
Cheers
Coyotte
michael_selway said:
Just going off your footnote about discounting for future RISK
Current Forcast (@ this stage of Fin/year 19.9c p/s @ a PE 15 (max for a Oz mining stock) would put its TODAYS value @ max $3.00 (anything else is forcasting)
I Hold and probablly will continue to hold KZL
didn't mean to upseat the applecart
Cheers
Coyotte
