Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

KIM - Kimberley Diamond Company

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what a bloodbath today...anyone with any ideas as to why this selling is continuing without mercy.... my reading of things (not the charts) suggest that KIM should be moving in the opposite direction.....
Could the market be wrong? :confused:
 
Not tonight Josephine .... a CLOSE at .65 and I've deleted this one from my watch-list .... I'll wait until it can put in a few BIG WHITES on heavier volumes before reexamining ....
 
I concur, i have been watching this one for awhile as it seemed to be in a bottomed out accumulation phase. breaking .68 is not a good sign. Would rather be short than long on this at the moment i think.
 
Fridays price action would have taken out few stops. Either someone is playing silly buggers taking out the stops or as smoothsatin suggests it is time to go short. Given the failed trend changes in May and June I am forgetting KIM and heading off to find better behaving stocks. (like the iron ore plays).
 

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jammin said:
Fridays price action would have taken out few stops. Either someone is playing silly buggers taking out the stops or as smoothsatin suggests it is time to go short. Given the failed trend changes in May and June I am forgetting KIM and heading off to find better behaving stocks. (like the iron ore plays).
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interesting to watch might hapen next week......I reckon price action suggests manipulation, to what end, it is hard to know.

I hold and am looking forward to a recovery in SP considered by some true believers as well overdue.......
 
Boy, this stock is really getting a hammering. All the news appears to be good, but for some reason the market doesn't appear to like big yellow diamonds. Could be a takeover candidate soon if the price falls any further :eek:
 
Yes, KIM is looking a little cheap...no bad news but getting pummeled anyway...I heard GSJBW rated KIM recently as a sell, can anyone confirm or deny this??
 
Santoro said:
Yes, KIM is looking a little cheap...no bad news but getting pummeled anyway...I heard GSJBW rated KIM recently as a sell, can anyone confirm or deny this??
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Santoro....

Regardless of GSJBW, look at the chart......

Is this a Company that is healthy or in trouble???

I note AMP has pulled out of their 11% stake, now less than 5%......

Whatever is causing this sell off, this Company is the short of the year....... It has just capitulated....

Cheers
 
The numbers in their recent quarterly were not too bad with the main bane of their life, operating costs per ton coming down towards more profitable levels ($12 pt).

On the flip side they are only making about $13 per ton processed based on their figures. It did seem, that this was abnormally weighted lower based on the lower value diamonds produced but I think the big thing hurting them is the US/AUD x-rate.

Back when they raised capital late december, they had based their ongoing budget forecasts on a 0.7 to 0.75 x-rate if remember correctly, so they are really being hurt by this (like many others).

All said though, this does look a little cheap and oversold in my opinon.
 
Have a look at the chart over a 13 year period it is coming up to a bottom key support level. cheers
 
haha this was my pick for july tipping comp. I should've put (short) next to my entry. A lot of people are jumping ship on this one
 
rgdk said:
The numbers in their recent quarterly were not too bad with the main bane of their life, operating costs per ton coming down towards more profitable levels ($12 pt).

On the flip side they are only making about $13 per ton processed based on their figures. It did seem, that this was abnormally weighted lower based on the lower value diamonds produced but I think the big thing hurting them is the US/AUD x-rate.

Back when they raised capital late december, they had based their ongoing budget forecasts on a 0.7 to 0.75 x-rate if remember correctly, so they are really being hurt by this (like many others).

All said though, this does look a little cheap and oversold in my opinon.
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I have recently finished reading "Reminiscence of a stock operator" and the KIM Quarterly Activities Report. From this the following ideas come to mind.
If the SP was in reality cheap and oversold then there would be buying support from the major holders of the stock reflecting their belief in the numbers reported. The lack of support could be read as an indication that other issues, not detailed in reports, such as the US/AUD x-rate, will have a negative impact on the company and hence it is not worth supporting at this time. Similarly the traders that have shorted, in response the the breaking of the 70c support level, will be assisting the SP down.
Call me cynical, but the SP is not responding to the numbers reported so there must be something else happening.
 
I have been watching KIM for a while and yes I got them at a much higher price than todays $0.47 and still dropping. But I recall back around 1998 I bought Ashton Mining also a diamond miner that used to trade at $2.00 and dropped to $0.50 and before you knew it RioTinto bought them out at $2.00 so is this a similar scene and we will see a take over offer very soon?

KIM maintains when the new plant comes on line it will be the fifth biggest diamond miner on the planet.

But the share price does not agree thats for sure..
Oh! dropped to $0.465 as I write this....:confused:
 
I suspect that a t/o is a very real possibility I know this has been kicked

around for ages but I have bought again today because there is no other

explanation for this trading behaviour.

Citi and goldamn Sachs have a SELL on the stock however even then Citi's target price is 62c

Why you'd short a stock iwith the possibility of a t/o I have no idea

NTA as per 2006 annual report is 45c
 
redandgreen said:
Why you'd short a stock iwith the possibility of a t/o I have no idea
NTA as per 2006 annual report is 45c
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Red, the short play I have is for a time frame of 1-5 days and is based on T/A not on F/A. IMO when the KIM SP can be seen to have found support again then I would be looking to go long.
I understand if you are only looking at the fundamentals there is no obvious reason to short.
 
Techbuy said:
I have been watching KIM for a while and yes I got them at a much higher price than todays $0.47 and still dropping. But I recall back around 1998 I bought Ashton Mining also a diamond miner that used to trade at $2.00 and dropped to $0.50 and before you knew it RioTinto bought them out at $2.00 so is this a similar scene and we will see a take over offer very soon?

KIM maintains when the new plant comes on line it will be the fifth biggest diamond miner on the planet.

But the share price does not agree thats for sure..
Oh! dropped to $0.465 as I write this....:confused:
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I would have thought that this has to be similar to Ashton Mining situation only that Rio now has its hands full with Alcan, so might have to be GEM (pure speculation of course.) I expect if the offer comes it will appear to be at a significant premium to this week's trading range but disappointing for those that have been in this one for a while
good luck to all longs
 
Let me know if I'm working this out wrong but end June 2006, KIM had:

100 tonnes @ $A1300-1400 (costs)
A$234 average per carat
7.2 cpht (carats per hundred tonne)

so sales of around $A1685 per hundred tonne - $1350 of costs = gross $335 per hundred tonne

By June 2007, KIM had:
Lowered the costs to A$1250 per hundred tonne
A$171 average per carat
7.9 cpht

now sales of $1350 per hundred tonne - $1250 of costs = gross $100 per hundred tonne

Looks like the price per carat may have dropped by 10-15% in this time as on currency exchange alone; A$171 currently is equivalent to $US150 (@0.87) but in June 2006 $US150 would have got A$202 (@ 0.74)

This stock is definitely hurt by the exchange rate.

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DYOR
 
Should point out that the throughput has increased significantly up from 2.1 million tonnes (June 2006) to 4.8 million tonnes (June 2007), not quite enough to offset the lower revenues but very necessary....should have some good upside should the US$ strengthen....


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DYOR
 
I reckon the bad news has been fully priced now, I would be very surprised

to see this stock much lower than its Friday's trading range

What I don't understand is that there is no consideration for the good story

in the SP. You are left scratching your head wondering there must be

more to this than meets the eye?????

A most frustrating stock, making a absolute nonsense of all my exhaustive

research over the last 6 month
 
I think that you are on the money with the sp having finally kicked back, albeit a little, today.

I am not a holder of this stock, but am tempted to buy now in the expectation that we may see some jagged peaks and troughs that could result in some short-term trading opportunities over coming weeks & months.

What do others think about this prospect?
 
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