KGN - Kogan.com Limited

Hi divs.....
Hmmmmmmm..... KGN eh.......
I feel compelled to offer my recent KGN Analysis for your consideration.....

I cannot see any +ives for KGN.... Way too expensive for my liking.....
But as always DYOR....
Cheers M8....
DrB.

DrBourse said:

I cannot see any +ives for KGN.... Way too expensive for my liking.....

Click to expand...

currently i agree

but we are several days away from the 'comp. start ' and am thinking a dose of 'retail is dead ' + the recent mediocre results will dip that share price ( but sadly $4 should hold before the comp. start )

however certain disapproved denizens of the internet are talking a new wave of lockdowns/pandemic , which would be a very convenient distraction from events elsewhere ( some will be world-changing )

having successfully played KGN in the first half of 2020 , i am ready to look for a repeat adventure ( IF the entry price is low enough )

some see KGN as a retail ( consumer discretionary ) but i see it as a tech/growth stock and as such i am prepared to dabble ( NOT back-up the truck ) in such a stock which indicates low income yields in the near/mid- future , as my portfolio needs some growth vectors

BTW i hold KGN at a healthy profit , so far

divs4ever said:

currently i agree

but we are several days away from the 'comp. start ' and am thinking a dose of 'retail is dead ' + the recent mediocre results will dip that share price ( but sadly $4 should hold before the comp. start )

however certain disapproved denizens of the internet are talking a new wave of lockdowns/pandemic , which would be a very convenient distraction from events elsewhere ( some will be world-changing )

having successfully played KGN in the first half of 2020 , i am ready to look for a repeat adventure ( IF the entry price is low enough )

some see KGN as a retail ( consumer discretionary ) but i see it as a tech/growth stock and as such i am prepared to dabble ( NOT back-up the truck ) in such a stock which indicates low income yields in the near/mid- future , as my portfolio needs some growth vectors

BTW i hold KGN at a healthy profit , so far

Click to expand...

Good morning Mr divs. as with the Comp allofour entries are a guess as to what might be.
The only given is the first morning with everyone on zero percentages

farmerge said:

Good morning Mr divs. as with the Comp allofour entries are a guess as to what might be.
The only given is the first morning with everyone on zero percentages

Click to expand...

in theoretical terms i am 'buying a rumor , and hoping to sell on the fact '

so far this year my other strategies have not done well

since commsec stopped publishing market turnover data i can only assume turnover is light and therefore volatile ( and warped by big fundies )

so am going for psychology over maths this month

this strategy is a legacy of my early days gambling on race-tracks when corruption was known ( by the masses ) aka play the trickster not the data

PS this only works in small careful gambles , upset the kingpin at your own peril

Kogan.com April 2024 Business Update

Continues strong profitability Kogan.com Ltd (the Company;
the Business; Kogan.com; ASX:KGN) is pleased to announce continued strong profitability through 3QFY24, maintenance of a healthy Balance Sheet, and continued growth in its loyalty program, Kogan FIRST. Kogan FIRST grew to over 472,000 Subscribers at 31 March 2024.
This represents growth of over 16% YoY.
The Business has continued to deliver immense value through the program to its most loyal customers, and expects the strong growth to continue.
Founder and CEO of Kogan.com, Ruslan Kogan, said: “Kogan FIRST has become the north star for the business, creating immense value for our loyal customers.
We deliver remarkable value to our loyal members, and in so doing ensure that members come to Kogan first! “Kogan FIRST is the best way to take advantage of our remarkable value on the most in demand products and essential services.
Almost half a million smart shoppers recognise this! “I’m excited to announce today that we continue to grow the benefits through the program, launching Kogan Travel hotel deals.
As of today, Kogan Travel now offers the best value domestic and international hotel stays and packages with exclusive pricing for Kogan FIRST Subscribers.
If you have some travel coming up, we encourage you to compare our prices and start saving.
“Our team is committed to delivering remarkable value to millions of customers and help them combat the cost-of-living, so they can live their best lives.”
The Company provides the following update which, where applicable, is based on unaudited management accounts as at 31 March 2024.
The update compares the 3QFY24 to 3QFY23:
● Gross Sales of $178.3 million reflects a decline of 6.2% PCP following a recalibration to our quality of Revenue and focus on Platform-based Sales 1 , which resulted in a significant reduction in inventories YoY.
The reduction in inventories has been discussed at length in recent announcements made by the Company, and follows the Company’s plan to reposition itself into a more capital-light business.
● Revenue of $105.9 million reflects a decline of 2.4% PCP, and is a result of the recalibration of Revenue quality and inventories right-sizing outlined above.
● Gross Profit of $39.0 million increased 13.8% PCP, driven by an improved Gross Margin.
● Gross Margin of 36.8% improved by 5.2pp PCP, underpinned by a larger contribution from Platform-based Sales 1 and improved profitability of in-warehouse inventory sales after the prior sell-through of excess inventory.
1 Refers to sales generated by Kogan Marketplace, Kogan FIRST, Kogan Verticals, Mighty Ape Verticals and Advertising & Other Income. It excludes Exclusive Brands, Third-Party Brands and Mighty Ape.
● Platform-based Sales 1 contributed 61.6% of Gross Sales in 3QFY24.
○ The new Advertising Platform is continuing to scale, generating $0.8 million in Revenue during the period.
● Group Active Customers were 2,660,000 as at 31 March 2024, consisting of 1,950,000 for Kogan.com and 710,000 for Mighty Ape.
● Kogan FIRST Subscribers 2 totalled over 472,000 as at 31 March 2024, compared to over 407,000 as at 31 March 2023. Kogan FIRST membership cost was increased from $99 to $129 on 8 April 2024.
● The Group’s return to strong profitability continued:
○ Adjusted EBITDA 3 was $9.0 million (3QFY23: $4.4 million)
○ Adjusted EBIT 3 was $5.3 million (3QFY23: $0.2 million)
● The Company’s Balance Sheet remains strong, underpinned by:
○ Cash totalling $34.1 million, with no external debt, as at 31 March 2024, compared to net cash (after loans & borrowings) of $49.1 million as at 31 March 2023.
This result was achieved after completing the Mighty Ape Tranche 4 payment (being the final tranche) of $10.9 million and investing $33.8 million into the Company’s Share Buy-Back program over the past 12 months.
○ Inventories totalling $71.1 million as at 31 March 2024, comprising $61.1 million in-warehouse and $10.0 million in-transit.

The inventory balance represents a YoY reduction of 9.2%.

i hold KGN

please be careful how you analyze this

'capital light ' often translates to less tangible assets ( which can be good or bad depending on the tangible assets retained/divested )

well above ( double ) my target price to add more

Very dodgy transactions recently using buy back to pay cash to Rus. for option conversions. Cant believe ASIC havent noticed. Extraordinary corporate behaviour. Look back through the recent announcements.

Seems the AFR noticed!

Good morning
What are analyst saying about KGN?

• Kogan started at Hold; $5.20 target: Bell Potter

Kind regards
rcw1

Good afternoon

Not a bad effort on Thursday and Friday just passed:




Have a very nice weekend

Kind regards
rcw1

You could argue that Retail should do well at this time of the year but its developed a nice base and setting up for me.
Starter position at 5.25 and added a chunk today at 5.75

First-half FY25 Business Update
Return to strong topline growth

Kogan.com Ltd (the Company; the Business; Kogan.com; ASX:KGN) is pleased to announce strong first-half performance with accelerated growth during the peak retail sales period.

The peak retail sales period incorporates the Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Christmas and Boxing Day sales events, occurring across the months of November and December.
A strategic decision to invest incremental profitability in marketing and promotional activity from November helped the Company to achieve accelerated topline growth (announced at the Company’s AGM), as illustrated by Figure 1 - accelerated growth.
Throughout 2024, we undertook a digital transformation for Mighty Ape, which successfully went live in late October 2024.
This milestone facilitated the launch of the Mighty Ape Marketplace and enhancements to the PRIMATE loyalty program.
However, implementation and technology challenges temporarily adversely impacted Mighty Ape sales and profitability during the peak period.
These issues have since been largely resolved, and the new unified platform is expected to deliver significant long-term benefits.
The Company provides the following update for key metrics which are based on unaudited management accounts as at 31 December 2024.

The update compares the 1HFY25 to 1HFY24:
● Gross Sales grew 10.3% to $492.5 million;
● Revenue grew 9.9% to $272.7 million;
● Gross Profit grew 18.3% to $106.0 million;
● Gross Margin grew 2.8pp to 38.9%;
● Adjusted EBITDA grew 17.5% to $25.3 million; and
● Adjusted EBIT grew 21.2% to $19.0 million.Figure 1 - accelerated growth
Authorised for release by the Board of Kogan.com Ltd.

ENDS

i hold KGN

hmm better than i expected even given it was fixing some issues and bottle-necks last year

From Market Matters today

• Kogan (KGN) -15.2% hit hard after the online retailer underwhelmed with 1H25 results (unaudited) with EBITDA coming in 7% below consensus – more below.

Not Held

Commentary from Market Matters today

miss.

"The peak retail sales period incorporates the Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Christmas and Boxing Day sales events, occurring across the months of November and December. A strategic decision to invest incremental profitability in marketing and promotional activity from November helped the Company to achieve accelerated topline growth ...."