JML - Jabiru Metals

[dj_420]

i expected to see this stock consolidate a bit at these levels. hopefully today we will have found some support around the 82 cents level.

zinc has breached 100 000 tonnes and seems to be forming support $2.00 plus. even on profit taking spot has stayed above 2.00 now.

 

[hypnotic]

i expected to see this stock consolidate a bit at these levels. hopefully today we will have found some support around the 82 cents level.

zinc has breached 100 000 tonnes and seems to be forming support $2.00 plus. even on profit taking spot has stayed above 2.00 now.

It's gone up a little bit today breaking out 85 cents resistance.

I would love to see an annoucement regarding the progress of the jaguar project now. Will probably send this stock to $1 mark, especially with the spot prices now. I was wrong, I thought the zinc spot price will only reach the $2 mark at the end of the month, looks like there is a lot more demand for zinc and it is fast running out.

Come on start producing JML.... the unhedged zinc prices will send this to the moon i think.

fingers crossed!

 

[imajica]

at the moment JML has been conolidating around these levels. forming a nice base for the next leg up IMO

JML will be producing by June and the share price is still not reflecting true value

get on board before it takes off

independent broker values this one at $1.33

 

[hypnotic]

at the moment JML has been conolidating around these levels. forming a nice base for the next leg up IMO

JML will be producing by June and the share price is still not reflecting true value

get on board before it takes off

independent broker values this one at $1.33

Hi Imajica,

Would you be able to tell me which independent broker valued it at $1.33, i would love to read the report on what they have said that's all. Do you have a link to it or is it ones from the company website?

Hypnotic

 

[imajica]

can't remember where I obtained the report - will have a look though

did save some of the info in WORD

JML calculations

av life of mine output of zinc: say 30,000tpa

cost per pound: (-0.40) USD YES thats negative cost

Zinc price then: be conservative say 1.80

1.80--0.40 = 2.20

2.20 *1.40 *2200 * 30000 = $203M

less Depn $170M. Less exploraiton, tax about $110M

Current mkt cap: $290M

P/E ratio = 290/110 = 2.63

Correct p/e should be 4.00, taking into account short mine life.

Therefore 4*110 = $440 m

440/330 = $1.33 a share @ 1.80zn

 

[Caliente]

subjectively no doubt: JML is cheap at these levels.

and while we're being subjective, from past experience as a holder, the next surge shows JML to hit the 90's and start to threaten the dollar mark. I still feel there will be significant resistance breaking that barrier and from there, things will get slower.

note however: I hold

so please dyor and/or check out broker reports. where is it already imajica

 

[EasternGrey1]

Thx for the calcs imajica. I've done my own, and they're pretty similar. My NPV15 comes out between 1.10 and 1.67 per share, depending on the assumptions used, so 1.33 is totally credible.

 

[dj_420]

every time the other zinc stocks have had pullback after a run JML stays fairly strong and sp holds up well. the exp tennements for JML are also very prospective looking forward to some more drilling results soon.

so obviously the market thinks the current sp is fair and we do not see much of a retracement on pullbacks.

their jaguar deposit is open at depth also and should see a resource upgrade once they start production.

 

[Sean K]

every time the other zinc stocks have had pullback after a run JML stays fairly strong and sp holds up well. the exp tennements for JML are also very prospective looking forward to some more drilling results soon.

so obviously the market thinks the current sp is fair and we do not see much of a retracement on pullbacks.

their jaguar deposit is open at depth also and should see a resource upgrade once they start production.

There is still the chance CSM take them over too.

 

[mildew79]

zn will likely be 2.50 + by the time they produce.
this stock is value on your calculations alone but nice to know theres also a good upside....
one thing we can assume pretty safely is zn will be very unlikely to be @ 1.80 or lower considering demand and world supply volumes. might have to get on board i think. maybe next break....

what you reckon freeball?? :

 

[dj_420]

trading formed an pennant here, higher lows and lower highs, trading tightening with volume reducing.

a continuation pattern in an uptrend, can indicate a breakout. confirmation needed for breakout, a break above resistance around 83 - 84 cents indicate breakout.

 

[mildew79]

trading formed an pennant here, higher lows and lower highs, trading tightening with volume reducing.

a continuation pattern in an uptrend, can indicate a breakout. confirmation needed for breakout, a break above resistance around 83 - 84 cents indicate breakout.

more like an equilateral tri if you are trading patterns id say dj 420. a pennant does not have a rising base right??
anyhow break is as you stated but id be more tempted to get in a few cents higher after confirmation if you are buying in the upper range of trading (ie breakouts).

 

[dj_420]

yeah your right mildew, still only new to tech analysis. but a good break above 84 cents up to test old highs would be good.

would like to see some more drill results soon also.

 

[Impala]

Random walk theory beats "technical analysis" any time. Concentrate on the excellent underlying value proposition of Jabiru and be patient.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

zn will likely be 2.50 + by the time they produce.
this stock is value on your calculations alone but nice to know theres also a good upside....
one thing we can assume pretty safely is zn will be very unlikely to be @ 1.80 or lower considering demand and world supply volumes. might have to get on board i think. maybe next break....

what you reckon freeball?? :

Hi Mildew,

Sorry I missed youre post . Certainly agree that JML is a potential bagger and entered them a few months back. IMO they will deliver on the goods and be up and running in around May/June on budget and with planned output. Thats the news I've been hearing and despite BHP having skilled constuction shortages and blow outs at Ravy, Jaguar has a full team plugging away with no drama's!.

Interesting that JML has held strong during the recent pullback in the high 70's on low volume. Furthermore yesterday's trade in JML was the largest volume in JML for ages (5 mil), with a clear break through sell pressure and could be the start of a run, time will tell!.

Anyway I'll see you at the Xmas do at PT next week, cheers mate

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

JML'S starting to test old resistance with volume and positive momentum, we might hit some highs if it runs through the high 80c range!.

 

[Out Too Soon]

trading formed an pennant here, higher lows and lower highs, trading tightening with volume reducing.

a continuation pattern in an uptrend, can indicate a breakout. confirmation needed for breakout, a break above resistance around 83 - 84 cents indicate breakout.

Looks like you were right dj, although I'm still a charts skeptic I can't help but see pennants etc everywhere now. bought back in today having stop lossed out a month ago. I originally intended to hold until the good times mid 2007 when the real action starts & again that's my intention.

 

[hypnotic]

Looks like it might be testing the all time high tomorrow.
If it does surge pass $0.88 then it is possible to be heading towards the dollar mark.

Looking really good, i think it has formed a very strong base now at the 80 cents mark.

With production within 6 months (hopefully) this is looking good.

Does any know if there will be a Jaguar project progress update soon??? It would be the right time for a positive update with the mine now....

Interesting though the LME Zinc stock is starting turn around to a up trend?
This could affect the zinc price for sure...

Hypnotic

 

[dj_420]

nice breakout from the triangle pattern. i think there is news pending on some exp drill results. its been quite a while since we had market ann.

although it also could be just because of that collapsed zinc mine. anyways very nice increase today.

 

[LifeisShort]

Go you good thing!!! Jabiru once in production should command some attention from the bigger players. There is lot to like about this company. I like the story