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JHX - James Hardie Industries

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i see james hardie as a good long term buy, taking into consideration this 'good business model' there are indications that the co. will pick up once the housing market picks up again in the U.S....which i feel is still some way off...recommendation went from Buy to Accumulate when the U.S plant shut down, so probably wasnt the best time to get in!!
 
James hardie definitely in no mans land at the moment.

Sitting at no support levels and will be very volatile I suspect.


Its in the wrong sector right now. The market could get to all time highs and JHX could lose 10%. It will not follow the index.

Where is the positive news coming from to drive the share price... I cant see it in the near term.
 
neither can i...jhx seems to be getting belted on a daily basis...all this 'the worst is yet to come' talk from the U.S isnt making it any better...
how long do property markets usually take to turn around from a slump? lol...
 
bit of a rebound from james hardie today, any clues ppl? housing market in the u.s hasnt turned around already has it? lol
 
notting said:
Should get a reality check soon!!
New-home sales slump
Ramped up my short yesterday.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/07/25/real_estate/home-sales/index.htm?iid=EL
Click to expand...

You've been talking about this short forever... have you been averaging up?

While I don't disagree that JHX share price appears to be defying fundamentals - it's been doing that for so long now I have to resign to the fact that I am probably just wrong.

Or may be you should consider respecting your stop, or accept the good old saying about relative strength between your bank account and market irrationality.
 
Yes. All good points.
I am expecting weakness because the market was over exited about the recent housing reports from the US which can be volatile on a short term basis. The base is so low and it's more about old homes finally being sold after 4 years not new homes so much.
The way I have been managing this trade, although it is getting along way from my initial entry is buying large chunks of it back when it dips (have been in profit twice) and then shorting again when it pops on silly days. So although I started shorting somewhere in the mid 7s, can't remember what price it was, am only 1% off the mark with a pretty heavy trade.
I could be wrong and always expect that, but so far the damage has been limited to the dividend short on about half the volume I have now. Things ain't that great and it's trading at about 8.70 if you add the div taken out so not worried at all. Sometimes I just enjoy the rhythm.
Unconventional but I'm not giving up yet.
If it cuts through 8.50 with attitude, as you can see on the weekly, I will be starting to shake! And all the worlds problems would have been solved.
 
notting said:
If it cuts through 8.50 with attitude, as you can see on the weekly, I will be starting to shake! And all the worlds problems would have been solved.
Click to expand...

Your money your call. But have a plan now and stick to it. It's difficult to plan things when you are "starting to shake".
 
skc said:
Your money your call. But have a plan now and stick to it. It's difficult to plan things when you are "starting to shake".
Click to expand...

Was shaking so much when it hit 8.60 managed to stop out of most of it at 8.37
Interestingly it backed off that previous resistance pretty hard but bounced of firdays pivot at 835.
So still in pos mood for today safer to limp away, but will whatch closely to get in as now will be it's ultimate test.
 
There it goes touched on 7.71 down significantly from 8.60.
Held a about 15% or what I was stopped out on.
Hate the way it can shake you out, psych you out and just keep murdering you if you refuse to let go and hang on.
The problem with shorting is that it happens so fast when it turns.
I love that saying, 'the market can remain wrong, longer than we can remain solvent.'
 
I like this narrow consolidation of price at all time highs. Friday's close is a new all time high close (break-out on line chart).

Both weekly and daily OBV, TMF are above their averages and rising.

 
I often follow www.theage.com.au "markets live" page and a couple of days ago there was a reference to Credit suisse saying that they were tipping a special dividend at James Hardie

"However, we are increasingly confident of a full-year special dividend (22cps), which is likely to attract interest from income/yield investors and see the stock trade above fair value"

I found the AFR link: http://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/special-dividend-tipped-at-james-hardie-20150518-gh41sc (it opens for me without subscription)

What's interesting to me is that they "tipped" a special dividend of 22 cents and low and behold before market opens today we get the FY report from JHX declaring a special dividend of exactly 22 cents. It just goes to show you how much we are able to get as information compared to the big boys.
 

I'm not quite sure how to interpret your post, but if you are suggesting we are at a disadvantage; I am not so sure that this example is a perfect example. JHX has been delivering special divs with each FY result for the last couple of years. So based on result modelling on the mgmt guidance and a bit of educated guesswork I think arriving at 22cps was pretty foreseeable.

JHX result shows that the markets thirst for capital management initiatives continues.
 
Hey thanks VS. Yes that's what I was implying. I don't know all things James Hardie so I didn't know they do special dividends so often.

I do agree that this isn't the best example as the public got the information a couple of days before the actual profit announcement. I was happy in this case as "buy on the rumour sell on the fact" worked well for me and I only held for a couple of days.
 
James Hardie Industries share price knocked down 7.58% to $21.56 today after the release of their latest quarterly financial results.

Net profit grew 58% to $US90.6 million for the three months to 30 June, but the company warned 2018/19 financial year profit will be between $US300 million and $340 million rather than the $US313 million and US$358 million range expected by analysts.

 
JHX going well.......extremely well with ATH set @ $31.68 on Friday.

Don't worry about the gaps, just power on up !!!



not held
 
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