IVA - Inova Resources
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Sean K
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Re: IVA - Ivanhoe Australia
The grades found here are the highest ever discovered, (along with the Mo) but as you say, what tonnage?
Initial resource is due very soon. It was quoted somewhere that it was due in 2-3 weeks from around the 25th of March, so it's very close!
At the grade and depth, I think Ivanhoe will lend then some money to dig down to this deposit quick smart!
Unless Mo/Re tank further!!!
We might be talking about different companies, unless I have my chem elements mixed up. Re, is Rhenium as far as I know. The last element to be found on the periodic table. You add it to aircraft bits and pieces. Very rare.
The grades found here are the highest ever discovered, (along with the Mo) but as you say, what tonnage?
Initial resource is due very soon. It was quoted somewhere that it was due in 2-3 weeks from around the 25th of March, so it's very close!
At the grade and depth, I think Ivanhoe will lend then some money to dig down to this deposit quick smart!
Unless Mo/Re tank further!!!
Sean K
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Re: IVA - Ivanhoe Australia
And it's not just the GEC, I am sure!! IVA are on to something here. It will depend on the economics of course. How much is there, grade, depth, etc, and how much will it cost to pull out. As mentioned Mo has been decimated, what will be the economics of this? Take your bets!
I'm not sure about Re but I have been watching Mo very closely due to my interest in KMN, which has been a disaster for me. Well, percentage terms anyway. They also have a Cu/Mo find which has a significant amount of Re included. Funny thing was they took months to get Re results back whereas IVA have managed to get results turned around within weeks. I wonder why?
And it's not just the GEC, I am sure!! IVA are on to something here. It will depend on the economics of course. How much is there, grade, depth, etc, and how much will it cost to pull out. As mentioned Mo has been decimated, what will be the economics of this? Take your bets!
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Re: IVA - Ivanhoe Australia
Its difficult to put a value on Merlin at this stage but I had a go after the initial announcement. I roughed out a tonnage based on the first announcment and felt the 5bill in ground value that was speculated about in the media was credible. I had a play at putting an NPV on it by picking out capex/opex on some similar scale/depth underground developments. If we were in production or near to it I could live with $4 at present Mo and Re prices assuming a very modest 500,000 T per year operation - any more than that and they could kill the Re market and Re makes up half the value as it currently stands. The 1.80ish that it ran to on this occasion was a pretty full value for now (312.5mill shares on issue here...) Of course if Mo starts to pick up again in the same way that Cu has started to recover we will get real interested.
Thinking about the right point for a re-entry but my TA is lousy...
Ahh... I guess you are talking IRC. No doubt IRC has a very interesting prospect at Julia Creek but commercialisation is a long way off (imo). It would also be wrong to characterise JC as a moly project. It is basically a vanadium project with a moly co-product. I reckon it will get up one day but will be struggle in this market. (Vanadium is in serious bust mode at the moment) It all comes down to grade and that is what Merlin has in spades...
Yes, I'm looking for the consolidation too. I was a bit suspicious when the move up started. Friedlander was buying and that bit of extra buying pressure seemed to put a bit of tailwind behind the share price. At first I felt it was a bit of mark to market window dressing for Ivanhoe Mines (80% shareholder in IVA). When I saw the trading halt for the announcement it felt even more that way. The announcement really added little that we didn't already know from the end of last year but the market took the bait and off we went. I needed that one
Its difficult to put a value on Merlin at this stage but I had a go after the initial announcement. I roughed out a tonnage based on the first announcment and felt the 5bill in ground value that was speculated about in the media was credible. I had a play at putting an NPV on it by picking out capex/opex on some similar scale/depth underground developments. If we were in production or near to it I could live with $4 at present Mo and Re prices assuming a very modest 500,000 T per year operation - any more than that and they could kill the Re market and Re makes up half the value as it currently stands. The 1.80ish that it ran to on this occasion was a pretty full value for now (312.5mill shares on issue here...) Of course if Mo starts to pick up again in the same way that Cu has started to recover we will get real interested.
Thinking about the right point for a re-entry but my TA is lousy...
Sean K
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Re: IVA - Ivanhoe Australia
Initial resource out for Merlin.
The grade is incredible.
Merlin’s Identified Mineral Resource estimate Merlin is:
• 13 million tonnes at 0.8% molybdenum, and 14 g/t rhenium,
0.2% copper and 4.8 g/t silver.
The estimate of contained metal is:
• 110,000 tonnes (240 million pounds) of molybdenum;
• 180,000 kilograms (6 million ounces) of rhenium;
• 30,000 tonnes copper; and
• 2 million ounces of silver.
Mr Reeve added: “At current spot prices, Merlin is equivalent to a gold deposit containing 6 million ounces of gold at a grade of 14 grams per tonne, or a copper deposit containing 1.1 million tonnes of copper at a grade of 8.5% copper. It is unique in the sector.”
Initial resource out for Merlin.
The grade is incredible.
Merlin’s Identified Mineral Resource estimate Merlin is:
• 13 million tonnes at 0.8% molybdenum, and 14 g/t rhenium,
0.2% copper and 4.8 g/t silver.
The estimate of contained metal is:
• 110,000 tonnes (240 million pounds) of molybdenum;
• 180,000 kilograms (6 million ounces) of rhenium;
• 30,000 tonnes copper; and
• 2 million ounces of silver.
Mr Reeve added: “At current spot prices, Merlin is equivalent to a gold deposit containing 6 million ounces of gold at a grade of 14 grams per tonne, or a copper deposit containing 1.1 million tonnes of copper at a grade of 8.5% copper. It is unique in the sector.”
Re: IVA - Ivanhoe Australia
i wonder what price you can put on a monopoly? well close to one.
it makes aus of strategical importance too geopolitically.
you can only assume more products will be developed in the future that need re too.
makes u wonder how much other material of value is sitting out in there.
i wonder if this annoucement will get traction mediawise too and push it.
i wonder what price you can put on a monopoly? well close to one.
it makes aus of strategical importance too geopolitically.
you can only assume more products will be developed in the future that need re too.
makes u wonder how much other material of value is sitting out in there.
i wonder if this annoucement will get traction mediawise too and push it.
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Re: IVA - Ivanhoe Australia
You could be right. It hasn't faded as I had expected a couple of weeks back. Market cap of around 500mill seems pretty full for this stage of development but a lot of trading support for this now...
well well well...what do we have here...
nice breakout on solid volume....
anybody concurs that this little baby will pop tomorrow?
You could be right. It hasn't faded as I had expected a couple of weeks back. Market cap of around 500mill seems pretty full for this stage of development but a lot of trading support for this now...
Re: IVA - Ivanhoe Australia
Greetings fellow IVA holders. Great news for IVA and always particularly nice to see a rally in a market generally getting smashed on the day.
Just wanted to say thanks to all those on ASF who share their insights into the interpretation of actual drilling reports from a hands on point of view or relative to other deposits etc.
Those in this thread know who they are - fortunately I wasn't scoffing cornies when I read the ann. ;-) - but to all others here also - thanks, it's really appreciated.
Good luck to all holders.
Cheers,
Scorez
Greetings fellow IVA holders. Great news for IVA and always particularly nice to see a rally in a market generally getting smashed on the day.
Just wanted to say thanks to all those on ASF who share their insights into the interpretation of actual drilling reports from a hands on point of view or relative to other deposits etc.
Those in this thread know who they are - fortunately I wasn't scoffing cornies when I read the ann. ;-) - but to all others here also - thanks, it's really appreciated.
Good luck to all holders.
Cheers,
Scorez
Re: IVA - Ivanhoe Australia
read a nice article today about our little IVA today on Bloomberg....check it out
IVA article on Bloomberg
Greg
read a nice article today about our little IVA today on Bloomberg....check it out
IVA article on Bloomberg
Greg
Sean K
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Re: IVA - Ivanhoe Australia
But, what can this be worth to them? Maybe market cap deserves to be much higher. Hard to say really. This deposit is supposed to be pretty open as well.
The Ivanhoe boys are ramping this pretty hard, and maybe with justification.
Another article in th Oz, my bolded bit, which sounds interesting:
Merlin's high-grade mine magic boosts Ivanhoe
Sarah-Jane Tasker | April 22, 2009
Article from: The Australian
ROBERT Friedland's Ivanhoe Australia is attracting global attention, with confirmation its Queensland asset is the world's highest-grade molybdenum-rhenium deposit.
The Merlin Project has been described as one of the most significant discoveries in Australia, sparking comparisons with BHP Billiton's massive Olympic Dam mine.
"The Merlin resource estimate will provide Ivanhoe Australia with the potential to become the world's dominant and most reliable supplier of rhenium and position the company as a major molybdenum producer," chief executive Peter Reeve said.
Shares in Ivanhoe, which listed on the Australian Securities Exchange in August, jumped 29.66 per cent to $1.88 following the announcement.
Ivanhoe said the estimated 13 million tonne mineral resource had an in-ground metal value of about $6.4 billion, based on current spot metal prices. This equates to almost $500 per tonne of ore.
"As the picture of this remarkable deposit has emerged through our ongoing exploration, we have likened it to some of the earlier, great mineral discoveries in Australia, such as Western Mining's discovery of the Kambalda nickel field," Mr Reeve said.
"We believe the Merlin discovery will have that type of major corporate impact for our company."
Ivanhoe, 80percent-owned by Canada-based Ivanhoe Mines, has tenements covering 2250sqkm in the Mount Isa-Cloncurry mineral district in Queensland, including copper and gold discoveries.
Professor Murray Hitzman, the Fogarty Professor of Economic Geology at the Colorado School of Mines, who is overseeing an iron oxide-copper-gold (IOCG) research project at Cloncurry, said after a recent site visit that Merlin was a new type of molybdenum-rhenium deposit, with average grades an order of magnitude higher than the highest-grade existing molybdenum producers.
Rhenium is used in super-strength aerospace alloys. Molybdenum is a component of stainless steel and other alloys.
Professor Hitzman said the geophysics suggested a possible continuation of the Merlin system to the north.
"There is a major, untested magnetic anomaly at Flora East within and/or under the Mount Dore granite, 3km north of the northernmost drilling at Mount Dore-Merlin. This anomaly may well be the centre of a major IOCG system," he said.
In Australia, Olympic Dam is the largest IOCG, which is described as a "holy grail" for geologists.
At current spot prices, Merlin is equivalent to a gold deposit containing 6 million ounces of gold at a grade of 14 grams per tonne, or a copper deposit containing 1.1 million tonnes of copper at a grade of 8.5 per cent copper.
"It is unique in the sector," Mr Reeve said.
"I am getting all sorts of weird calls from geologists around the world saying they have never seen this in their life.
Good point about the mc, and it's why I didn't jump in a little earlier.
But, what can this be worth to them? Maybe market cap deserves to be much higher. Hard to say really. This deposit is supposed to be pretty open as well.
The Ivanhoe boys are ramping this pretty hard, and maybe with justification.
Another article in th Oz, my bolded bit, which sounds interesting:
Merlin's high-grade mine magic boosts Ivanhoe
Sarah-Jane Tasker | April 22, 2009
Article from: The Australian
ROBERT Friedland's Ivanhoe Australia is attracting global attention, with confirmation its Queensland asset is the world's highest-grade molybdenum-rhenium deposit.
The Merlin Project has been described as one of the most significant discoveries in Australia, sparking comparisons with BHP Billiton's massive Olympic Dam mine.
"The Merlin resource estimate will provide Ivanhoe Australia with the potential to become the world's dominant and most reliable supplier of rhenium and position the company as a major molybdenum producer," chief executive Peter Reeve said.
Shares in Ivanhoe, which listed on the Australian Securities Exchange in August, jumped 29.66 per cent to $1.88 following the announcement.
Ivanhoe said the estimated 13 million tonne mineral resource had an in-ground metal value of about $6.4 billion, based on current spot metal prices. This equates to almost $500 per tonne of ore.
"As the picture of this remarkable deposit has emerged through our ongoing exploration, we have likened it to some of the earlier, great mineral discoveries in Australia, such as Western Mining's discovery of the Kambalda nickel field," Mr Reeve said.
"We believe the Merlin discovery will have that type of major corporate impact for our company."
Ivanhoe, 80percent-owned by Canada-based Ivanhoe Mines, has tenements covering 2250sqkm in the Mount Isa-Cloncurry mineral district in Queensland, including copper and gold discoveries.
Professor Murray Hitzman, the Fogarty Professor of Economic Geology at the Colorado School of Mines, who is overseeing an iron oxide-copper-gold (IOCG) research project at Cloncurry, said after a recent site visit that Merlin was a new type of molybdenum-rhenium deposit, with average grades an order of magnitude higher than the highest-grade existing molybdenum producers.
Rhenium is used in super-strength aerospace alloys. Molybdenum is a component of stainless steel and other alloys.
Professor Hitzman said the geophysics suggested a possible continuation of the Merlin system to the north.
"There is a major, untested magnetic anomaly at Flora East within and/or under the Mount Dore granite, 3km north of the northernmost drilling at Mount Dore-Merlin. This anomaly may well be the centre of a major IOCG system," he said.
In Australia, Olympic Dam is the largest IOCG, which is described as a "holy grail" for geologists.
At current spot prices, Merlin is equivalent to a gold deposit containing 6 million ounces of gold at a grade of 14 grams per tonne, or a copper deposit containing 1.1 million tonnes of copper at a grade of 8.5 per cent copper.
"It is unique in the sector," Mr Reeve said.
"I am getting all sorts of weird calls from geologists around the world saying they have never seen this in their life.
Re: IVA - Ivanhoe Australia
well it seems to be getting traction, thats all it needs to push it up in short term to me. i managed to get a small handful but wished i knew about it last year. like how much press does re get. i had to look it up on wikipaedia.
and from the report, my intial read l got the impression they may use different technology to produce/seperate the re other than some expensive flue gas system.
his point about the possible centre of the orebody is interesting too.
aus sitting on a huge lump of crucial metal which is extremely rare.
i guess know we wait, hope for a retracement later, and buy in before the next upgrade
well it seems to be getting traction, thats all it needs to push it up in short term to me. i managed to get a small handful but wished i knew about it last year. like how much press does re get. i had to look it up on wikipaedia.
and from the report, my intial read l got the impression they may use different technology to produce/seperate the re other than some expensive flue gas system.
his point about the possible centre of the orebody is interesting too.
aus sitting on a huge lump of crucial metal which is extremely rare.
i guess know we wait, hope for a retracement later, and buy in before the next upgrade
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Re: IVA - Ivanhoe Australia
Thanks Scorez. Welcome to the very small (but not exclusive) ASF IVA fan club. Time to share some more thoughts...
I was pleased with the announcement yesterday. It pretty much confirmed the numbers I worked up in early January. Around 500 AUD/t of ore, 50/50 split of value between Mo and Re, and insitu value of 4.5bill USD. I was within about 15% with my estimates so I feel pretty happy with that effort. Great to see the charts that confirm their grades as being in world of their own.
At the same time I was playing with estimating resource size I tried to get a feel for the type of development they might undertake. I think the governing factor will be the Re. It is a niche product and although demand is growing they wouldn't want to kill the market. Current market is about 45 T/yr with estimates of demand up to 60 T/yr. A 500,000 T/yr mine would put 7T of additional Re in to the market. I'm guessing they wouldn't want to go too much beyond that for fear of killing the Re price.
So I've used 500,000 T/yr underground operation as basis for some NPV numbers. Ore containing 4000 T/yr Mo, 7 T/yr Re, 1000T/yr Cu and 75,000 oz Ag with a 95% recovery and current spot prices would give revenue of around 135mill USD (192mill AUD).
For capex and opex I have used mine costs from WSA's Digger South project as a reasonable analog. I've estimated capex at 55 mill (33 mill for mine and infrastructure and the balance is a pluck for the processing plant). Opex - I'll take a stab at 100 AUD/T of ore or 50 mill/yr . Mining costs alone in the Diggers South PFS are estimated at 95 AUD/T but we have had the fuel price reduction since then. Crunching those numbers, as flawed as they may be, with an 8% discount rate, a 20+ year mine life, and after tax, gives an NPV of around 850 mill AUD or around 2.66 of NPV per share for the Merlin project. I think I am realistic in the size of operation, I have probably erred on the optimistic with these capex given the polymetallic nature, and I'm almost certainly a bit optimistic on opex. On the flip side this is highly sensitive to Mo price which we would hope will go back up in a couple of years or so.
Anway with a close of 2.25, methinks the current sp is looking very full now - starting to reflect bigger than Texas hopes for the other targets they mention in the report or perhaps a rapid return to 80 USD/kg Mo. In any event as much as I love this I 'm loath to jump back in at this price.
Thanks Scorez. Welcome to the very small (but not exclusive) ASF IVA fan club. Time to share some more thoughts...
I was pleased with the announcement yesterday. It pretty much confirmed the numbers I worked up in early January. Around 500 AUD/t of ore, 50/50 split of value between Mo and Re, and insitu value of 4.5bill USD. I was within about 15% with my estimates so I feel pretty happy with that effort. Great to see the charts that confirm their grades as being in world of their own.
At the same time I was playing with estimating resource size I tried to get a feel for the type of development they might undertake. I think the governing factor will be the Re. It is a niche product and although demand is growing they wouldn't want to kill the market. Current market is about 45 T/yr with estimates of demand up to 60 T/yr. A 500,000 T/yr mine would put 7T of additional Re in to the market. I'm guessing they wouldn't want to go too much beyond that for fear of killing the Re price.
So I've used 500,000 T/yr underground operation as basis for some NPV numbers. Ore containing 4000 T/yr Mo, 7 T/yr Re, 1000T/yr Cu and 75,000 oz Ag with a 95% recovery and current spot prices would give revenue of around 135mill USD (192mill AUD).
For capex and opex I have used mine costs from WSA's Digger South project as a reasonable analog. I've estimated capex at 55 mill (33 mill for mine and infrastructure and the balance is a pluck for the processing plant). Opex - I'll take a stab at 100 AUD/T of ore or 50 mill/yr . Mining costs alone in the Diggers South PFS are estimated at 95 AUD/T but we have had the fuel price reduction since then. Crunching those numbers, as flawed as they may be, with an 8% discount rate, a 20+ year mine life, and after tax, gives an NPV of around 850 mill AUD or around 2.66 of NPV per share for the Merlin project. I think I am realistic in the size of operation, I have probably erred on the optimistic with these capex given the polymetallic nature, and I'm almost certainly a bit optimistic on opex. On the flip side this is highly sensitive to Mo price which we would hope will go back up in a couple of years or so.
Anway with a close of 2.25, methinks the current sp is looking very full now - starting to reflect bigger than Texas hopes for the other targets they mention in the report or perhaps a rapid return to 80 USD/kg Mo. In any event as much as I love this I 'm loath to jump back in at this price.
Sean K
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Re: IVA - Ivanhoe Australia
It's very hard at these levels to invest with confidence due to the sharp appreciation. They are still an explorer with quite some way to go before they start turning a profit. And general equity markets have the potential to send everyone running for the door at the drop of a hat. This is in fact what I am waiting for to get back into some quality stocks with long term potential, such as this. Pretty ordinary bar/candle on yesterdays action. Every chance that that gap will be filled imo.
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Sean K
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Re: IVA - Ivanhoe Australia
I suppose you could say that gap was filled but looks week. Bouncing off intraday low is a positive. Maybe that area is a bit of support now, but it's flimsy. More down around the 1.50 mark really. Waiting for more consolidation before making a decision here.
Looks like they will extend Merlin quite significantly. Perhaps further high grade results will provide further support, or even send it off again?
Lots of news still to come. Updated resource in May I think.
From the resource ann:
The mineralised zone starts at a depth of 100 metres and extends down-dip for more than 400 metres, with an average width of approximately 25 metres. The currently identified strike length is 900 metres; however, it remains open to the north along strike and down-dip. In the southern part of the orebody, the thick zone of high-grade IVA0009MR - Merlin Resource mineralisation in MDQ0132 (50m @ 1.6% Mo and 24 g/t Re) has yet to be closed off along strike.
A total of 100 holes now has been drilled at the Merlin Deposit, with assay results returned for 87 of the holes. Results from only 60 holes have been used to calculate the initial Mineral Resource estimate. (Table 3 lists the drillholes for which assays have been returned but not utilised in the resource estimate.)
Step-out drilling to the north has continued on 100-metre advances and recent drilling in hole MDQ0220, in the far northeast portion of Merlin, intersected almost 30 metres of visually high-grade molybdenite mineralisation. This is the further-most hole drilled to the northeast of Merlin.
I suppose you could say that gap was filled but looks week. Bouncing off intraday low is a positive. Maybe that area is a bit of support now, but it's flimsy. More down around the 1.50 mark really. Waiting for more consolidation before making a decision here.
Looks like they will extend Merlin quite significantly. Perhaps further high grade results will provide further support, or even send it off again?
Lots of news still to come. Updated resource in May I think.
From the resource ann:
The mineralised zone starts at a depth of 100 metres and extends down-dip for more than 400 metres, with an average width of approximately 25 metres. The currently identified strike length is 900 metres; however, it remains open to the north along strike and down-dip. In the southern part of the orebody, the thick zone of high-grade IVA0009MR - Merlin Resource mineralisation in MDQ0132 (50m @ 1.6% Mo and 24 g/t Re) has yet to be closed off along strike.
A total of 100 holes now has been drilled at the Merlin Deposit, with assay results returned for 87 of the holes. Results from only 60 holes have been used to calculate the initial Mineral Resource estimate. (Table 3 lists the drillholes for which assays have been returned but not utilised in the resource estimate.)
Step-out drilling to the north has continued on 100-metre advances and recent drilling in hole MDQ0220, in the far northeast portion of Merlin, intersected almost 30 metres of visually high-grade molybdenite mineralisation. This is the further-most hole drilled to the northeast of Merlin.
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Sean K
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Re: IVA - Ivanhoe Australia
Looks to be holding that top support line and forming a new one around the $2.00 mark. Looks prospective for a new base but a little time to go maybe. Not many shares available to trade so maybe it's a good sign. Still looks toppy for the stage of development, depending on what else they pull up in this deposit. Hope I don't look back and see ODII unearthed while I sat on my hands.
Looks to be holding that top support line and forming a new one around the $2.00 mark. Looks prospective for a new base but a little time to go maybe. Not many shares available to trade so maybe it's a good sign. Still looks toppy for the stage of development, depending on what else they pull up in this deposit. Hope I don't look back and see ODII unearthed while I sat on my hands.
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Re: IVA - Ivanhoe Australia
Should have got in earlier on this one too.
Interesting that the Canadian parent also has a good JV with Rio
in the Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold project in the South Gobi.
Should have got in earlier on this one too.
Interesting that the Canadian parent also has a good JV with Rio
in the Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold project in the South Gobi.
Sean K
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Re: IVA - Ivanhoe Australia
$2.00 finally broke and she's taking a decent rest, and capitulating a bit with the market weakness.
Watching this one closely for a longer term proposition. There is no doubt about the fundamental potential of this, but at what price is it a good entry now? And where will it go? Much depends on the POM, but even if we go WW market wise for the next few years, and POM stays supressed during this depression, there will be another bull in commods once we all recover. (I assume)
Still waiting for a resource upgrade at Merlin which should have come through I thought.
$2.00 finally broke and she's taking a decent rest, and capitulating a bit with the market weakness.
Watching this one closely for a longer term proposition. There is no doubt about the fundamental potential of this, but at what price is it a good entry now? And where will it go? Much depends on the POM, but even if we go WW market wise for the next few years, and POM stays supressed during this depression, there will be another bull in commods once we all recover. (I assume)
Still waiting for a resource upgrade at Merlin which should have come through I thought.
