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Is the Global Financial Crisis over or there is a second round?

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lukelee

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Is the Global Financial Crisis over or there is a second round?
One of my friend told me that australian financial crisis hasnt come yet.
 
Crisis? What crisis?

I smashed my mortgage in 2009 - awesome!!!

Bring on round 2 I say!!!!!

Brad
 
I think we are over the worst, with jolts to come...but importantly balance sheets of survivors are in better shape....fat has been pruned and managers are more prudent...

I like to think we are out of the crisis and into the circus, where all sorts of clowns and dissappearing acts will keep us balanced on a tight rope for a while.....
 
lukelee said:
Is the Global Financial Crisis over or there is a second round?
One of my friend told me that australian financial crisis hasnt come yet.
Click to expand...

Be ready to brace yourself for the GFC pt11, about to hit soon.
 
grace said:
Hi cutz, care to give us some detail on what you think is coming? Just curious as usual.
Click to expand...

In a nutshell an oz property market collapse followed by a local banking crises coupled with a worldwide panic caused by a realization that the recent sharemarket rally was perhaps a tad optimistic coupled with the big boys unloading positions.

Hate to state the obvious but the worst crises since 1929, we're not getting off as lightly as what recent events have suggested.

But hey, who am I to say.
 
Wait until the DOW hits 10,800 and then see what happens, I think the worst is to come and with Fed's World wide not giving out the true facts how can one tell?
 
It was the unanimous verdict of all the punters at the Ross Island Hotel, Railway Estate, Townsville, at midnight on New Years, that the GFC was officially over.

So its over. all over red rover.

There are no second rounds at the Ross Island. Everyone buys a round on entry as the place is packed 14/7.


gg
 

I like this.

It took 3 1/2 years for the market to fully "digest" 1929 back then, before beginning the bull again in 1933.

But as for property I disagree - America had "jingle mail", where a mortagee can simply hand in the keys and walk away from the loan. Australia does not have this.
 
It is always different story when you start to make repayments and billions borrowed are not chicken feed!
 
Given the scale of the original crisis, it does seem that we got out of it way too lightly. It's not impossible I suppose but it just doesn't seem right. So I think there's more to come.

1. US Government financial situation seems to be an outright disaster with no hope of actual resolution. All they can do now seems to be delaying the inevitable - and it's getting harder and harder just to do that. At some point the game will be up - when is anyone's guess.

2. Oil is at USD 80 per barrel despite the global economy being bad and demand having dropped. Just a few years ago, the mere thought of prices anywhere near that high during the midst of a boom would have sparked panic but now we're at that level in a serious economic slump. What happens when the economy recovers and demand starts to pick up? My guess is that oil prices shoot up and that at some point this kills the economic recovery.

3. After a recession, consumer spending should pick up in order to replace work out goods etc. But with such a short slump and all the stimulus spending, what is there that's worn out? Not much I'd expect.

4. Consumers are still up to their eyeballs in debt at least in Australia. That's not a good base from which to launch a sustained recovery.

Overall, the whole thing just seems to have been far too easy. It's like living through a cyclone then walking the streets finding nothing more than a few damaged fences and upturned pot plants. Given the intensity of the storm, that just doesn't seem right.
 
Smurf1976 said:
Given the scale of the original crisis, it does seem that we got out of it way too lightly. It's not impossible I suppose but it just doesn't seem right. So I think there's more to come.
Click to expand...

The $64m question is when.

I think there is an inevitability to a full scale depression/collapse. "When" is the unknown. It could be this year, or twenty years from now.

If there is one thing I've learnt over the last 5 or so years, is that the bulls (facilitated by Greedscam, Uncle Ben et al) have a lot more juice than I ever imagined.

The bulls will keep winning (with the odd turn) until a Roman Empire style collapse.
 
Up for a good few months. But in the end isn't deflation and the deleveraging of credit the needed (and painful) solution.
No point waiting in fear for the end to come though. You might miss out on some brilliant gains in the meanwhile.
 
moXJO said:
No point waiting in fear for the end to come though. You might miss out on some brilliant gains in the meanwhile.
Click to expand...

I agree, I'll keep letting my charts tell me personally. Why anyone bothers to read/listen/watch the news these days dazzles me. Each to their own I guess

:sheep: :sheep: :sheep:
 

Is there any point in shorting it then? If the institutions / brokerages on the other side of the trade couldn't deliver?

Trade of the year 2008 went to John Paulson, who shorted the CDO market. He made 12 billion dollars from the trade, but only after a tension filled 24 hrs in which the large brokerage firm (unnamed) nearly didn't pay up (bankruptcy being their other option).

My point is... I don't have 12 billion dollars to put the hard word on a brokerage firm!
 
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