Is Japanese lost decade in store for all?

[glads262]

I was just thinking about perpetual economic growth last night, and the fact that it is impossible to continue consuming more and more in perpetuity.

In Japan, they have had a lost decade. Deflation, very little economic growth, ageing population, and A BIRTHRATE OF 1.2.......

Are the Japanese actually worse off per capita? If their economy is still growing (albeit slowly) and their population is falling, do they not then have more GDP per capita?

The fact that their building industry is at a standstill, because they actually don't need new houses (population decreasing), may be exacerbating the slowdown in growth, because building houses is employment intensive.
But, there are less people each year actually needing a job.

Is this what we are all in store for?? Italy - birthrate 1.3, economy is stuffed and government is in debt.

What do Italy & Japan have in common?? High savings rates, and high government debt. High savings, because their population is ageing and more people are in retirement years. High government debt, because the government tries to spend its way out of a declining population.

If Australia, for example, stopped all migration, we have a birthrate of 1.6 I think (which would be lower without the MASSIVE cash handouts (middle class welfare) to families. We would then not have a housing shortage, but a SURPLUS. Where would we be then?? The government would spend 100% of GDP (like Japan) ie 1.1trillion dollars, trying to prop up the economic growth. Even though GDP per capita would be slowly rising.

Any thoughts out there?? Anyone know of any studies on economies in this context?

 

[Glen48]

I read some where were the Muslim population will over take Westerner's via migration and births when you read those birth stats how do we know which race they are???

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

The trouble with japan is they didn't let the crash clean out that which wasn't worth being in operation. So for many years they have been protecting interests which has affected any growth to the point of limiting it.

Japan is now in depression and the living standard of the middle class which was very large years ago with lifetime employment, is falling. The birthrate is low because women only want to marry men who have a decent salary and there is a trend change of younger womens' habits which is to spend time with friends going shopping an having coffee etc. and not worrying about boyfriends.

Japan has huge problems down the track if their birthrate does not pick up dramatically.

 

[Aussiejeff]

The trouble with japan is they didn't let the crash clean out that which wasn't worth being in operation. So for many years they have been protecting interests which has affected any growth to the point of limiting it.

Japan is now in depression and the living standard of the middle class which was very large years ago with lifetime employment, is falling. The birthrate is low because women only want to marry men who have a decent salary and there is a trend change of younger womens' habits which is to spend time with friends going shopping an having coffee etc. and not worrying about boyfriends.

Japan has huge problems down the track if their birthrate does not pick up dramatically.

Exactly where UK, Europe, US, Oz etc are also headed. Saving "deadwood" from firesales just results in a bigger pile of deadwood. How can that possibly make sense?

 

[glads262]

But Japan HAS cleaned up its banks now (apart from some shareholdings by government...)

The MASSIVE drop in exports just goes to show that their entire "economic growth" is built on manufacturing things for other people.

My point here is, what happens to this type of economy once the birthrates start coming down all over the world?
Then, GASP, when the world population peaks?

Who will take all of these excess exports then??

I realise I'm talking about something way down the track for many countries (such as east asia...) but this is a reality for almost all OECD countries. (Australia included - when you take away migration)

 

[Happy]

..

Japan has huge problems down the track if their birthrate does not pick up dramatically.

1.3 or 1.6 birth rate is positive so population increases.

In the world of limited resources negative economic growth and negative population growth might be something that will save our existence.

If not, we will just grow and grow and then one day collapse.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

If the worlds central banks keep issuing Vapors then we will all be Turning Japanese

 

[Sean K]

Exactly where UK, Europe, US, Oz etc are also headed. Saving "deadwood" from firesales just results in a bigger pile of deadwood. How can that possibly make sense?

It's the reason why the human species has survived, but also the reason why it will also fall apart. Once apon a time we hung together as tribes to ensure our survival from the elements. Once conquered, we have set about destroying the world we live in, and now each other. Down a slippery slope I feel, unless we learn to live side by side. Can't see that happenin any time soon, sad to say.

But, yes, I think possibly a lost decade, or somewhere between 5-10 years depending...good opportunity to go on a holiday and get set for the next bull....