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and the future is probably worse than the previous post suggested.The UN's climate change panel may have severely underestimated the sea level rise caused by global warming, say a group of climate scientists.
"The sea level rise may well exceed 1 metre by 2100 if we continue on our path of increasing emissions," says Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, speaking at the International Scientific Congress on Climate Change in Copenhagen.
"Even for a low emission scenario, the best estimate is about 1 metre," he says.
The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 predicted global warming would cause sea level to rise by between 18 and 59 centimetres this century.
IPCC ... pfffft
just a lot of clowns who fluked a Nobel prize
WayneThat is counter to the evidence.
Show me proof of:
- Accelerating sea level rises
- More severe storms
I'm not about to point him to some website financed by Mobil Exxon to put his mind at rest etc etc etc ...
Wayne
I'm interested in why you exclude IPCC from "the [available] evidence"
"The sea level rise may well exceed 1 metre by 2100 if we continue on our path of increasing emissions," says Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, speaking at the International Scientific Congress on Climate Change in Copenhagen.
PETER CAVE: The aid agency Oxfam says Australia and New Zealand need to stop being part of the problem and start being part of the solution.
It estimates that climate change could result in 75 million refugees in the Asia-Pacific region over the next 40 years.
People living in the islands, like the leader of the tiny territory of Tokelau, say they're watching helplessly as climate change ravages their countries.
New Zealand correspondent Kerri Ritchie reports.
KERRI RITCHIE: When the New Zealand Prime Minister John Key visited Samoa this month, the leader of the tiny pacific nation of Tokelau boarded a run-down old boat and travelled for 24 hours so he could speak to him.
Foua Toloa wants New Zealand and Australia to know that his people are in very real danger.
He says climate change is already leaving its ugly mark on his country.
FOUA TOLOA: The forces and the devastation and even the inundation of the land is even worse. You recall, 1914 you have a cyclone, there was a huge cyclone, 1966 and then it lapsed. But the current years it's been "bang" - every year you expect a cyclone
KERRI RITCHIE: Foua Toloa says the rising sea waters are stealing their food.
FOUA TOLOA: Back home it's an atoll, very low. When salt water comes in, you know, it solidifies to the stage that you need so much rain, you know, to dissolve that salt. And it's killing a lot of vegetation, even the town, the swampy town (inaudible), it's effecting. So it takes a lot of time to break before the next cyclone.
KERRI RITCHIE: Further north from Tokelau are more coral atolls which make up the nation of Kiribas.
Forty-eight-year-old Palaneesi Alofa Pidatatee (phonetic) lives in a rented house in the capital. She told Radio New Zealand all her coconut trees are dead and every day she fears for her country's future.
PALANEESI ALOFA PIDATATEE: I notice that the high tide, it's like a waterfall. Water is just flowing though my front yard and I chased the water and I found it was sea water.
KERRI RITCHIE: Barry Coates is the executive director of Oxfam New Zealand.
BARRY COATES: It's a community of 3,000 people offshore of Bougainville and Papua New Guinea who are having to move their people and 3,000 people is not an insignificant move and that's been an example of the kind of forced migration that's going to have to take place on a far larger scale.
KERRI RITCHIE: Barry Coates says if Australia and New Zealand don't press for a decent deal in climate change negotiations they're dooming these small Pacific Islands out of existence.
BARRY COATES: You know, if you can imagine for these atoll countries with a few metres above sea level as the highest point, they've got nowhere to go. We actually expect that Australia and New Zealand will be better neighbours and will do more themselves to put forward positive proposals into the negotiations.
KERRI RITCHIE: Recently the President of Kiribas pleaded with Australia and New Zealand to open their doors to any Kiribas citizens who become climate change refugees.
Barry Coates from Oxfam believes that people who are displaced should first be moved to higher ground in their own country. If that's not possible, he thinks they should go to a nearby nation.
Kiribas resident Palaneesi Alofa Pidatatee (phonetic) doesn't want to go anywhere.
PALANEESI ALOFA PIDATATEE: We never thought that we have to move. No, that is not an option to us. We do not want to move. Because if we move away from our islands, we have lost everything. We will lose our identity. You cannot create Kiribas or Tuvalu or Fiji in someone else's country.
KERRI RITCHIE: Tokelau's Premier Foua Toloa says it is very worrying times for Pacific Islanders.
FOUA TOLOA: We are in the dilemma that the effect of whatever is done outside the control of Tokelau is impacting us. So when you say afraid, I'm very much. Maybe hopefully one day we don't wake up underneath the water.
KERRI RITCHIE: Climate change is expected to be a hot topic at next week's Pacific Islands Forum in Cairns.
... ahhh found that interview finally
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2009/s2638573.htm
including the increased frequency of cyclones / storms. :2cents - or maybe you'll only accept :1cent for that one wayne.
and equally, like I say, just don't jest with the man
unless you're wearing a helmet.
So.... AGW is a reality because someone is a violent man?
We have truly entered the twilight zone.
as for the storms and their frequency , the Tuvalu PM on the ABC's "world today" yesterday (I think that's right) - explained that the frequency of storms is much much higher than it used to be. He quoted typical bad years from last century, when they were inundated, and went on to say that "now we have them almost every year" (paraphrased).
Whether he's judging them by their power, or by their effect , I don't know.
But hey - I'm not about to tell him he doesn't know what he's talking about.
I'm not about to point him to some website financed by Mobil Exxon to put his mind at rest etc etc etc ...
PS Tell you what - I'm not about to laugh at his predicament either - nor that of the Vic Bushfire victims.
http://www.moyak.com/papers/tuvalu-climate-change.html
20/20 is the sea rising at Tavulu or is the island sinking?
MARK COLVIN: The Papua New Guinea province of New Ireland is still reeling from the huge seas that destroyed coastal homes and villages earlier this week.
PNG disaster officials estimate that the flooding has affected up to 50,000 people on the New Ireland mainland and the surrounding low lying islands.
Australian Scientist, John Hunter, happens to be researching sea level rise on a neighbouring island. I called him on his satellite phone.
He said while the impact of global warming on the sea level can only be measured in millimetres, an event like this, which happens once every 30 years will only become more regular, such as every 2-3 years by the year 2050. And Australia will not be immune.
oops - out by a factor of 10 there - apologies.3mm per year - I'm guessing that's about the average rate of growth of a person to the age of 50 years.
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