Is it OK to jest about global warming?

[2020hindsight]

http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2009/03/11/2513003.htm
Sea level rise underestimated: scientists
Wednesday, 11 March 2009 Gelu Sulugiuc
Reuters

The UN's climate change panel may have severely underestimated the sea level rise caused by global warming, say a group of climate scientists.

"The sea level rise may well exceed 1 metre by 2100 if we continue on our path of increasing emissions," says Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, speaking at the International Scientific Congress on Climate Change in Copenhagen.

"Even for a low emission scenario, the best estimate is about 1 metre," he says.

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 predicted global warming would cause sea level to rise by between 18 and 59 centimetres this century.

and the future is probably worse than the previous post suggested.
,,,
as they say ... the future is history

 

[wayneL]

Wikipedia... pffffft.

Read ==>> http://climatesci.org/2009/07/05/real-climate-permits-the-continued-presentation-of-misinformation/

 

[2020hindsight]

IPCC ... pfffft
just a lot of clowns who fluked a Nobel prize

 

[wayneL]

IPCC ... pfffft
just a lot of clowns who fluked a Nobel prize

Finally, you have seen the light.

IPCC, Nobel committee = Politics

That Al Bore, a proven liar/exaggerator, is an NL is comical and epitomises the depths to which the Nobel committee has sold out to money and politics.

A Nobel prize confers no credibility at all.

 

[2020hindsight]

as for the storms and their frequency , the Tuvalu PM on the ABC's "world today" yesterday (I think that's right) - explained that the frequency of storms is much much higher than it used to be. He quoted typical bad years from last century, when they were inundated, and went on to say that "now we have them almost every year" (paraphrased).

Whether he's judging them by their power, or by their effect , I don't know.
But hey - I'm not about to tell him he doesn't know what he's talking about.

I'm not about to point him to some website financed by Mobil Exxon to put his mind at rest etc etc etc ...

PS Tell you what - I'm not about to laugh at his predicament either - nor that of the Vic Bushfire victims.

http://www.moyak.com/papers/tuvalu-climate-change.html

 

[2020hindsight]

That is counter to the evidence.

Show me proof of:

1. Accelerating sea level rises
2. More severe storms

Wayne
I'm interested in why you exclude IPCC from "the [available] evidence"

 

[wayneL]

I'm not about to point him to some website financed by Mobil Exxon to put his mind at rest etc etc etc ...

climatesci.org is not financed by Oil money. It is not a site that positions itself at the diametric opposite of those foolish pro IPCC sites.

It deals in real science, in fact it is pro ACC, but rightly debunks the influence ascribed to co2 by the IPCC.

Wayne
I'm interested in why you exclude IPCC from "the [available] evidence"

It has been demonstrated beyond reasonable doubt that they only consider one outcome and model towards that. The fact that, as proven by science I have posted before, there are not enough available fossil fuel reserves to fulfil their modelling assumptions. The fact that they have spectacularly failed to move their hypothesis into a bona-fide theory. The fact that they have an association with the Gore charlatan and fail to correct his exaggerated propaganda and outright lies. The fact that they are happy to allow him to represent his fiction as an "agreed" reality.

I prefer honest brokers like Pielke and Watts.

 

[2020hindsight]

well FWIW, my post #101 also disagrees with the IPCC.
It concludes that they've underestimated the problem.
(sorry sea level ... I should say "one of the miriad of problems")

"The sea level rise may well exceed 1 metre by 2100 if we continue on our path of increasing emissions," says Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, speaking at the International Scientific Congress on Climate Change in Copenhagen.

 

[2020hindsight]

... ahhh found that interview finally
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2009/s2638573.htm
including the increased frequency of cyclones / storms. :2cents - or maybe you'll only accept :1cent for that one wayne.

PETER CAVE: The aid agency Oxfam says Australia and New Zealand need to stop being part of the problem and start being part of the solution.

It estimates that climate change could result in 75 million refugees in the Asia-Pacific region over the next 40 years.

People living in the islands, like the leader of the tiny territory of Tokelau, say they're watching helplessly as climate change ravages their countries.

New Zealand correspondent Kerri Ritchie reports.

KERRI RITCHIE: When the New Zealand Prime Minister John Key visited Samoa this month, the leader of the tiny pacific nation of Tokelau boarded a run-down old boat and travelled for 24 hours so he could speak to him.

Foua Toloa wants New Zealand and Australia to know that his people are in very real danger.

He says climate change is already leaving its ugly mark on his country.

FOUA TOLOA: The forces and the devastation and even the inundation of the land is even worse. You recall, 1914 you have a cyclone, there was a huge cyclone, 1966 and then it lapsed. But the current years it's been "bang" - every year you expect a cyclone

KERRI RITCHIE: Foua Toloa says the rising sea waters are stealing their food.

FOUA TOLOA: Back home it's an atoll, very low. When salt water comes in, you know, it solidifies to the stage that you need so much rain, you know, to dissolve that salt. And it's killing a lot of vegetation, even the town, the swampy town (inaudible), it's effecting. So it takes a lot of time to break before the next cyclone.

KERRI RITCHIE: Further north from Tokelau are more coral atolls which make up the nation of Kiribas.

Forty-eight-year-old Palaneesi Alofa Pidatatee (phonetic) lives in a rented house in the capital. She told Radio New Zealand all her coconut trees are dead and every day she fears for her country's future.

PALANEESI ALOFA PIDATATEE: I notice that the high tide, it's like a waterfall. Water is just flowing though my front yard and I chased the water and I found it was sea water.

KERRI RITCHIE: Barry Coates is the executive director of Oxfam New Zealand.

BARRY COATES: It's a community of 3,000 people offshore of Bougainville and Papua New Guinea who are having to move their people and 3,000 people is not an insignificant move and that's been an example of the kind of forced migration that's going to have to take place on a far larger scale.

KERRI RITCHIE: Barry Coates says if Australia and New Zealand don't press for a decent deal in climate change negotiations they're dooming these small Pacific Islands out of existence.

BARRY COATES: You know, if you can imagine for these atoll countries with a few metres above sea level as the highest point, they've got nowhere to go. We actually expect that Australia and New Zealand will be better neighbours and will do more themselves to put forward positive proposals into the negotiations.

KERRI RITCHIE: Recently the President of Kiribas pleaded with Australia and New Zealand to open their doors to any Kiribas citizens who become climate change refugees.

Barry Coates from Oxfam believes that people who are displaced should first be moved to higher ground in their own country. If that's not possible, he thinks they should go to a nearby nation.

Kiribas resident Palaneesi Alofa Pidatatee (phonetic) doesn't want to go anywhere.

PALANEESI ALOFA PIDATATEE: We never thought that we have to move. No, that is not an option to us. We do not want to move. Because if we move away from our islands, we have lost everything. We will lose our identity. You cannot create Kiribas or Tuvalu or Fiji in someone else's country.

KERRI RITCHIE: Tokelau's Premier Foua Toloa says it is very worrying times for Pacific Islanders.

FOUA TOLOA: We are in the dilemma that the effect of whatever is done outside the control of Tokelau is impacting us. So when you say afraid, I'm very much. Maybe hopefully one day we don't wake up underneath the water.

KERRI RITCHIE: Climate change is expected to be a hot topic at next week's Pacific Islands Forum in Cairns.

 

[wayneL]

... ahhh found that interview finally
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2009/s2638573.htm
including the increased frequency of cyclones / storms. :2cents - or maybe you'll only accept :1cent for that one wayne.

I don't see much science in that interview, in fact, none at all.

Heresay ==>> useless.

 

[2020hindsight]

and equally, like I say, just don't jest with the man
unless you're wearing a helmet.

 

[wayneL]

and equally, like I say, just don't jest with the man
unless you're wearing a helmet.

So.... AGW is a reality because someone is a violent man?

We have truly entered the twilight zone.

 

[queenslander55]

So.... AGW is a reality because someone is a violent man?

We have truly entered the twilight zone.

I really think that at this juncture in the debate it is probably appropriate that we all:

...and sit back and enjoy our bourbon and cokes!

 

[noco]

as for the storms and their frequency , the Tuvalu PM on the ABC's "world today" yesterday (I think that's right) - explained that the frequency of storms is much much higher than it used to be. He quoted typical bad years from last century, when they were inundated, and went on to say that "now we have them almost every year" (paraphrased).

Whether he's judging them by their power, or by their effect , I don't know.
But hey - I'm not about to tell him he doesn't know what he's talking about.

I'm not about to point him to some website financed by Mobil Exxon to put his mind at rest etc etc etc ...

PS Tell you what - I'm not about to laugh at his predicament either - nor that of the Vic Bushfire victims.

http://www.moyak.com/papers/tuvalu-climate-change.html

20/20 is the sea rising at Tavulu or is the island sinking?

 

[2020hindsight]

20/20 is the sea rising at Tavulu or is the island sinking?

or is it both.

 

[Smurf1976]

Any proper attempt to link sea levels to CO2 would need to take into account water released from aquifers, brown coal etc plus all things dumped into or floated upon the ocean which has directly increased sea levels simply due to the addition of volume. And then it would need to take into account water removed from the oceans and stored in dams. Collectively these are rather huge volumes of water.

I very much doubt those pointing to sea level changes have even thought about the above. If they have, then let's see the numbers...

 

[2020hindsight]

more evidence of that recent trend of 3mm per year again ...
this time the source of info is the CSIRO.
Having known a couple of CSIRO blokes, both of whom wore sandals lol , I'm guessing it's kosher

Looks like 50mm in 16 years to me. (1993 to 2008 incl)
Near enough to 3mm per year.
http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html

So Smurf, how would a few containers floating around compare with a thermal increase in volume of the oceans?

 

[2020hindsight]

This from PNG last December (New Ireland) - again storm surge.

http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2445383.htm

MARK COLVIN: The Papua New Guinea province of New Ireland is still reeling from the huge seas that destroyed coastal homes and villages earlier this week.

PNG disaster officials estimate that the flooding has affected up to 50,000 people on the New Ireland mainland and the surrounding low lying islands.

Australian Scientist, John Hunter, happens to be researching sea level rise on a neighbouring island. I called him on his satellite phone.

He said while the impact of global warming on the sea level can only be measured in millimetres, an event like this, which happens once every 30 years will only become more regular, such as every 2-3 years by the year 2050. And Australia will not be immune.

btw, that CSIRO graph shows 2 inches rise 16 years = 3.2mm per year (compared to average of 1.7 mm/yr last century)

but 3mm per year - I'm guessing that's about the average rate of growth of a person to the age of 50 years.

 

[2020hindsight]

3mm per year - I'm guessing that's about the average rate of growth of a person to the age of 50 years.

oops - out by a factor of 10 there - apologies.
Try "averaged to the age of 500", lol.

Still next time your 15 year old son lies on the beach near the water's edge - ask him to imagine that, by the time he reaches 75 yrs rolleyes = 60 yrs x 3mm = 180mm) , the water will pretty much have covered his body - just using the current rate!

Of course this could take much less than 60 years considering positive feedback loops and other reasons for acceleration and exponential growth in this rate of sea rise.