Is cryptocurrency the greatest market bubble of all time?

moXJO said:

It's a casino that's paying though. One of the dumbest guys I know was ranting how he made money in crypto. Was deadset sprouting youtube gossip about how it was going to move.

I have a rule after that last crash. If three guys that have no business trading come and preach to me in a week. Or newbs tell me they are going to "get into crypto". I generally sell off holdings.

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Normally your strategy is a sound one, but the normal rules have not applied since about Feb of 2020.

Dona Ferentes said:

Sounds TOO good to be true, froogs

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How so?
Getting 5.8% PA return on an "asset" that can go "poof" into a cloud of dust at any second doesn't sound TOO good to be true at all !

RPY is return per year (PA)
The crypto broker I use (Swyftx) currently only offers staking on these below. The RPY is shown for each.




So, it's real, but,
"do ya feel lucky punk?
Well do ya?"

Dona Ferentes said:

Apparently !

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I'm not sure if I like the tone of your exclamation??

I don't think I need to explain all the risks associated with crypto's... bottom line is total loss.

The point was, if you ARE going to hold a crypto, it may as well be staked... if it can be. ?

Will ad that one may have noticed that the larger market cap cryptos have smaller returns than the lesser knowns. (TRON, SOLANA, CARDANO are the examples from the above screenshots of larger market cap cryptos)

So I’m going to ask the question…

How da f**# can any of those returns be met???

I let the fools do some talking...

joeno said:

Can someone explain to me what the product is?

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It's easier to summarize what crypto is not. It's not a reliable store of value, viable medium of exchange, safe haven asset, unit of account or currency. If you cut through the hype around decentralized finance, the network effect, fixed supply (in the case of Bitcoin) and myriad of other proposed use cases for crypto, it's almost entirely a speculative, high risk asset class with no fundamentals to justify its incredible market capitalization. Crypto trades more like a tech startup that's raising capital for a product idea that gives it some kind of unique edge, burning through that capital while trading at a loss with its stock price soaring in anticipation of the product hype becoming reality. I think of the crypto market as a transfer of wealth from the naïve to pump and dumb merchants spinning up new cryptos by the thousands to fleece greedy speculators with a road to riches mentality. It's a tradable hyper-bubble but definitely not an asset class to HODL including Bitcoin.

frugal.rock said:

How so?
Getting 5.8% PA return on an "asset" that can go "poof" into a cloud of dust at any second doesn't sound TOO good to be true at all !

So, it's real, but, "do ya feel lucky punk? Well do ya?"

I'm not sure if I like the tone of your exclamation??

I don't think I need to explain all the risks associated with crypto's... bottom line is total loss.

The point was, if you ARE going to hold a crypto, it may as well be staked... if it can be.

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You've lost me, all I'm reading is a contradictory set of conjectures

I'll absquatulate from the exchange

Tyre Kicker said:

So I’m going to ask the question…

How da f**# can any of those returns be met???

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My understanding is they are used to validate transactions on the block.

So some coins use POW and others POS. So you mine a coin on POW and forge a coin with POS.

Crypto has been in a "bubble" for about a decade. So long as people can trade it, it will continue to be in one.

Tyre Kicker said:

How da f**# can any of those returns be met???

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The returns are paid in the crypto staked, so to be clear, it's a PA figure of crypto only.
As said by Mo, proof of stake POS rewards.

If someone comes up with some app that lets you pay for things, just like any typical daily transaction, then I think crypto has a great chance of moving out of the bubble domain.
There's a lot more fingers in the crypto pie than there was two years ago, some big names.

It will be interesting to see the public backlash at governments legislating crypto.
Or is legislation only going to change the traceability, for taxation purposes?
Dunno. Wait and see on that.

frugal.rock said:

It will be interesting to see the public backlash at governments legislating crypto.
Or is legislation only going to change the traceability, for taxation purposes?

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One of the more insidious aspects of crypto tech is how it gave central banks and governments a blueprint for implementing MMT, increase surveillance and manipulate money supply by implementing their our digital currency. China's intolerance for crypto competition with their digital yuan is likely to be replicated by other governments to some extent. At the very least, expect much more regulatory oversight of crypto prior to the introduction of central bank issued digital currencies. Crypto legal tender is a harbinger of a dark future for privacy, government surveillance and personal liberties. A case of being careful what you wish for.

i see cryptos as a medium of exchange ( like a bank cheque , cash , including foreign currency , and similar )

so are cryptos in a bubble ( which implies people accumulating them ) or are they becoming a more popular method of exchange ( either is possible , and currently both probable )

Trader X said:

One of the more insidious aspects of crypto tech is how it gave central banks and governments a blueprint for implementing MMT, increase surveillance and manipulate money supply by implementing their our digital currency. China's intolerance for crypto competition with their digital yuan is likely to be replicated by other governments to some extent. At the very least, expect much more regulatory oversight of crypto prior to the introduction of central bank issued digital currencies. Crypto legal tender is a harbinger of a dark future for privacy, government surveillance and personal liberties. A case of being careful what you wish for.

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i agree , and precisely why i have avoided the crypto space ( i don't actually hate crypto , only worry about control-freak governments )

frugal.rock said:

I haven't read the whole thread, so this may have been mentioned?
Staking.
Some coins can be "staked" and then you earn a per annum percentage or "reward" on the coins staked.

Currently, I have TRON staked on approximately 6% PA rate.
The reward is deposited daily and is compounding.
Apparently, the only risk is the normal risk of price fluctuation of the crypto, and the reward % is subject to variations as well.
Staking the coin was simply a matter of pressing a button... to trade the crypto again, I just unstake it by a press of a button.

Not forgetting underlying risks, the process is amazingly simple, probably supports cryptos in general as I imagine rewards are available probably due to DeFi (decentralised finance) and it would now seem illogical to not have your cryptos staked whilst you are holding them.

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My understanding staking is like owning shares. So for example i share in the profits of binancecoin because the company itself makes money off of charging its members fees.

So why not buy shares? If coins can provide 6% PA in perpetuity - that means it must be generating some sort of value worth that gross amount. I am not sure any coin is able to do that outside of - once again - gambling on crypto popularity.

frugal.rock said:

Currently, I have TRON staked on approximately 6% PA rate.
The reward is deposited daily and is compounding.

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Ah that sounds familiar Welcome to PIPS People in Profit.

Back in 2003-4 the biggest scam in the investment world was PIPS. It was the biggest of the High Yield Investment Programs At that stage there were scores of these little Ponzi schemes which tried to seduce punters with the promise of rapidly increasing profits . You could make money in these scheme if you got in and out very quickly. Very few people did.

Bryan Marsden, the architect of PIPS, built a bold new plan which promised to revolutionise the world, create abundance for all and solve world hunger, poverty, Climate change, environmental catastrophe with his super duper investment program. Just sign up and invest. There were people who realised it was a total scam and attempted to blow the whistle. The first reference is one such person. If you read nothing else that article is excelent value.

He also promised a return of 2% a DAY on your PIPS account and you could see the money accumulating before your eyes.

It was incredibly successful but clearly the multitude of crypto currency coinage has eclipsed even his take.

Trader X said:

It's easier to summarize what crypto is not. It's not a reliable store of value, viable medium of exchange, safe haven asset, unit of account or currency. If you cut through the hype around decentralized finance, the network effect, fixed supply (in the case of Bitcoin) and myriad of other proposed use cases for crypto, it's almost entirely a speculative, high risk asset class with no fundamentals to justify its incredible market capitalization. Crypto trades more like a tech startup that's raising capital for a product idea that gives it some kind of unique edge, burning through that capital while trading at a loss with its stock price soaring in anticipation of the product hype becoming reality. I think of the crypto market as a transfer of wealth from the naïve to pump and dumb merchants spinning up new cryptos by the thousands to fleece greedy speculators with a road to riches mentality. It's a tradable hyper-bubble but definitely not an asset class to HODL including Bitcoin.

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Post of the Year Nomination. Trader X. Worth repeating.

Squid Game crypto token collapses in apparent scam​

Published
2 November


Image source, Netflix
A digital token inspired by the popular South Korean Netflix series Squid Game has lost almost all of its value as it was revealed to be an apparent scam.
Squid, which marketed itself as a "play-to-earn cryptocurrency", had seen its price soar in recent days - surging by thousands of per cent.
However, as the BBC reported, it was criticised for not allowing people to resell their tokens.
This kind of scam is commonly called a "rug pull" by crypto investors.
This happens when the promoter of a digital token draws in buyers, stops trading activity and makes off with the money raised from sales.
Squid's developers have made off with an estimated $3.38m (£2.48m), according to technology website Gizmodo.

"Play-to-earn" cryptocurrency is where people buy tokens to use in online games and can earn more tokens which can later be exchanged for other cryptocurrencies or national currencies.

• Squid Game cryptocurrency rockets in value
• Chinese viewers slam 'copycat' Squid Game show

Last Tuesday, Squid was trading at just 1 cent. In less than a week its price had jumped to over $2,856.
Its value has now plummeted by 99.99%, said cryptocurrency data website

Sorry if the following points have been covered already.

First): Nothing like CFDs
I vaguely remember a time when CFDs were all the rage but I avoided them because I was already making mistakes with normal investing. CFDs would compound my stuff ups even more.

Now it’s crypto. I think it might make CFDs look like a kitten???

Second): A work associate
Last Friday I met someone (in hospitality/club) who was a manager (or 2IC). He told me that he and Chloe were finishing up on that day to do crypto full time. “It is the future ..... it’s not too late yet to join in but time is running out”. It surprised me because I never thought he would be an “investing“ type of person. Maybe lockdown made him consider this desperate measure? At least there will be hospitality jobs available if he ever changes his mind.

Third): A Young Friend
A young 18 year old who I have known for a while told me one or two of his friends were quitting their apprenticeships to do crypto full time. His parents are making him finish his HSC next year. Then he will do one year apprenticeship before following his friends’ career path. I seriously wanted to warn him. I only said it’s risky and it’s something I don’t understand. Hopefully crypto will crash before he makes that decision to join his friends.

Fourth): Junk Emails
My franchisor boss has done stupid things on the internet (like looking at pr0n) and infected our servers (and our work email addresses). Monitoring the massive amount of junk emails I delete daily, Bit Coin, crypto, etc comes and goes in waves. My simple theory: junk emails peaks after crypto peaks. Junk emails drops off after a massive drop and is replaced by the usual ED solutions, free sex and other normal junk emails instead of crypto junk emails. Then the cycle of crypto junk emails starts again.

Fifth): Skill Set
Maybe my thinking is just completely wrong and I have the wrong skills. No wonder it’s all going over my head. If I knew how click TikTok, be an influencer of Instagram, get lots of likes on Facebook, etc. These clicking and swiping skills will give a decent foundation to tackle crypto trading? Isn’t it as easy as downloading an app and start tapping away?
(I am sorry to say that getting lots of likes on ASF ain’t going to cut it ?)

Well, what do I know? Crypto may go up forever and I have missed out on a lifetime opportunity?

Faramir said:

He told me that he and Chloe were finishing up on that day to do crypto full time. “It is the future .....

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As someone who remembers it well, this all just sounds so much like late 1999 with people quitting their jobs and day trading tech stocks at home.

That did not end at all well for most.