Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Is cryptocurrency the greatest market bubble of all time?

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dyna said:
the ATO estimates 2 million Aussie Crypto bunnies have blown $ 20 Billion, that was drawn out of perfectly sensible bank accounts last year, and floated off down the river of no return.
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From $25 billion to $167 million: How a major crypto lender collapsed and dragged many investors down with it​

"Also in the fine print of Celsius’ terms and conditions is a warning that in the event of bankruptcy, “any Eligible Digital Assets used in the Earn Service or as collateral under the Borrow Service may not be recoverable” and that customers “may not have any legal remedies or rights in connection with Celsius’ obligations.”

In light of this and all the other scams and collapses in the crypto space, the fact that "crypto bunnies" are still putting down bets at the crypto casino seems to defy all reason. But then one must consider that gambling is an addiction and there is no industry watchdog regulating this space, for now. In the meantime, cryptoland is still an oasis for fraud, deception and theft.
 
I was checking out some of the nft communities and was surprised they are building strong. It's all taken a hit to the prices obviously. But there's a lot of newer members.

I was surprised. Doesn't look dead just yet.
 
The bubble of all bubbles?
Sure looks like it now. Very interesting prediction from Warren Buffett may back in 2018.

Buffett has long been against cryptocurrencies. He told CNBC in 2018 that “they will come to a bad ending” and said that Berkshire Hathaway will “never have a position in them.”
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From: Yahoo Finance 15 Jun 2022.

What would world's most famous investor say to those who might be thinking of firing up their investment apps and buying Bitcoin at a bargain price.

Buffett has made his share of extremely cutting remarks about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency over the years: “I don't have any Bitcoin. I don't own any cryptocurrency, I never will,” he told CNBC in 2020.

It’s “probably rat poison squared,” Buffett once said.
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i've punted a little bit in crypto, about half in BTC, a quarter in ETH and the rest in various little sh#tcoins, totaling around 0.25% of my overall investment capital at this point. i do agree that it's basically gambling, hence the use of the word "punted" rather than "invested".

but it's demonstrated in the past that it is quite capable of bouncing back 5x, 10x or even more after an 80% fall, so i don't think there's too much harm having a bit of a punt, and am continuing to trickle more in slowly, trusting in my discipline to stop once i've committed 1% of my overall capital to it.

sure, there's a chance it ultimately flames out and goes to zero, but even if it does, if you restrict it to a tiny % of your capital and don't go crazy overboard like putting your life savings into Terra or Celsius as some people apparently did, it should be fine.
 
Sharkman said:
i've punted a little bit in crypto, about half in BTC, a quarter in ETH and the rest in various little sh#tcoins, totaling around 0.25% of my overall investment capital at this point. i do agree that it's basically gambling, hence the use of the word "punted" rather than "invested".

but it's demonstrated in the past that it is quite capable of bouncing back 5x, 10x or even more after an 80% fall, so i don't think there's too much harm having a bit of a punt, and am continuing to trickle more in slowly, trusting in my discipline to stop once i've committed 1% of my overall capital to it.

sure, there's a chance it ultimately flames out and goes to zero, but even if it does, if you restrict it to a tiny % of your capital and don't go crazy overboard like putting your life savings into Terra or Celsius as some people apparently did, it should be fine.
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Well nearly 1k of profit last FY, much better than my losses on the market.
I would gamble a bit more as well
If Fiats goes to the proverbial, people will panic and go everywhere..crypto might orofit..
But nothing significant in term of investment for me either
 
qldfrog said:
Well nearly 1k of profit last FY, much better than my losses on the market.
I would gamble a bit more as well
If Fiats goes to the proverbial, people will panic and go everywhere..crypto might orofit..
But nothing significant in term of investment for me either
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i'm the opposite, well in the red on my crypto at the moment, since i only just started getting into it during the last FY, but my fiat was actually slightly up on the year (at least in AUD terms), as i have a significant international weighting and AUD has been hammered in 2021-22.

but the plan i set out for myself before even putting a cent into crypto was always to drip feed at most 1% of total capital into crypto over 2 years or so, given that it tends to operate in 4 year cycles due to the halvening, so being in the red right now doesn't bother me. hopefully the coins bought (and mined) over the next 12 months will show some nice profits if crypto explodes upwards again (as it has done following previous halvenings), but if they don't, i'm at peace with the decisions i made.

also on the lookout for tiny PoW sh#tcoins that might be worth mining for a few days, the ones that are worth like 0.01 of a cent. basically treating it as a lottery ticket. by the time these sh#tcoins get listed on an exchange (if they even get that far) they'll probably be a few cents already. to participate in that first big jump they have to be mined rather than bought. and if it dies out, it's only cost me a few $ of electricity (well, that plus the value of a different coin i could've been mining instead, but that's an opportunity cost not a direct cost), not a bad bet if i can find one that i think might have potential.
 

Bitcoin Now Braced For A ‘Black Swan’ Shock As Mt. Gox Prepares To Repay 142K BTC​

The magic pudding that is Bitcoin and its South Sea Bubble price is about to be tested by a Mt. Gox dump event. How much of this repatriated BTC will actually be churned as opposed to hodled? Time will tell but as the Tesla dump (they have now unloaded 75% of their BTC), Celsius and Luna events demonstrated, the price of BTC is not so resilient. The shorts are on notice, should be some interesting price action on the horizon.
 
In addition to BTC & ETH .. another crypto I really like as believe it's a very promising worthwhile project is Chainlink (Link) from having watched various YouTube video's & followed Chainlink throughout social media.

P.S. Not investment/trading advice per say so please DYOR
 
Sharkman said:
i've punted a little bit in crypto, about half in BTC, a quarter in ETH and the rest in various little sh#tcoins, totaling around 0.25% of my overall investment capital at this point. i do agree that it's basically gambling, hence the use of the word "punted" rather than "invested".

but it's demonstrated in the past that it is quite capable of bouncing back 5x, 10x or even more after an 80% fall, so i don't think there's too much harm having a bit of a punt, and am continuing to trickle more in slowly, trusting in my discipline to stop once i've committed 1% of my overall capital to it.

sure, there's a chance it ultimately flames out and goes to zero, but even if it does, if you restrict it to a tiny % of your capital and don't go crazy overboard like putting your life savings into Terra or Celsius as some people apparently did, it should be fine.
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The wonderful technology of blockchain is here to stay as is being widely accepted/incorporated as we speak by many large institution's.

Blockchain is being adopted mainstream and so quality crypto project's will thrive unlike many that will fall away/disappear in time. I believe the likes of say BTC, ETH & Link will still be around & flourish in the year's ahead imo
 
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Telamelo said:
The wonderful technology of blockchain is here to stay as is being widely accepted/incorporated as we speak by many large institution's.

Blockchain is being adopted mainstream and so quality crypto project's will thrive unlike many that will fall away/disappear in time. I believe the likes of say BTC, ETH & Link will still be around & flourish in the year's ahead imo
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chainlink is one of my minor crypto holdings as well (in post #209 by sh#tcoin i meant anything that isn't BTC or ETH, rather than a coin that's almost worthless... i probably should've used the term "altcoin" there instead. i was definitely referring to actual sh#tcoins in post #211 though!)

it's around 4-5% (out of the 0.25% of total capital i currently have in crypto), will probably maintain it around that weighting as i slowly grow my crypto portfolio up to 1% of total capital.

will it be around to flourish in years ahead? BTC and ETH probably, LINK and other smaller altcoins i'm not so sure. in this climate i think it makes sense to go top heavy into BTC and ETH with only minor positions in alts. i'm going 50% BTC / 25% ETH / 25% alts myself. and if i do find any sh#tcoins to mine as rank longshots, i probably won't include them in the weighting, i'll just mine them straight into a self-custody wallet for a few days, then leave them sitting there and hope for a nice surprise in a couple of years.
 
The big gains in crypto are gone for the moment.

The reason they are gone is:

Screen Shot 2022-09-08 at 11.36.54 AM.pngScreen Shot 2022-09-08 at 11.41.25 AM.png

Now of course you have the additional risk that they end up at zero.

A 'safer' speculation based on the length of the history and the valuation and that there is an intrinsic value, ie. industrial demand combined with an investment demand is:

Screen Shot 2022-09-08 at 11.42.14 AM.png

Silver, the poor man's gold, is and always has been money proper.

jog on
duc
 

El Salvador’s Bitcoin Law — one year on, with the World’s Coolest Dictator​

"How’s bitcoin going, a year later?
  • There’s almost no use of bitcoin as currency. The official Chivo Wallet is hardly used, and they never did get it working properly. Businesses have taken down their “we accept bitcoin” signs.
  • There’s almost no use of bitcoin for remittances.
  • Hundreds of millions of dollars in public funds have gone up in smoke — which is as if the US spent hundreds of billions — with nothing to show for it.
  • Crypto crashed. As well as screwing over local bitcoin holders, this halved the face value of the government bitcoin reserve.
  • El Salvador can’t borrow internationally. The IMF won’t talk to them while bitcoin is in place. The price of Salvadoran sovereign debt has fallen through the floor, as has El Salvador’s credit rating.
  • The Bitcoin Volcano Bonds supposedly had $1.5 billion of buyer interest lined up — then Russia invaded Ukraine, and those buyers vanished.
  • Ground has not been broken for Bitcoin City. I’m pretty sure it never will.
  • A bunch of American so-called libertarians got flown around the country in military helicopters, though. Military escorts are the true meaning of liberty — for a few people."
How can Bitcoin shills and evangelists possibly call this anything other than a failed experiment and financial disaster for an impoverished country?
 
When I posted this thread almost exactly 12 months ago Bitcoin was over US$65,000. Now it is approximately US$16,000. The bubble is in the process of deflating just as I suspected it would.

I'm not one of those people who thinks that all cryptocurrencies will go to zero. Some will survive and thrive the way some tech companies did when the dot com bubble burst over 20 years ago. Ultimately the ones that will survive and grow again will need to have a very compelling use case, cutting edge blockchain technology and visionary management. Phoenixes will rise from the ashes and I believe that there are still fortunes to be made in crypto - yes, yet again - as the few diamonds in the rough eventually emerge from the carnage and continue to push on.

I believe that decentralised finance will be the crypto sector that eventually makes good in a big way as long as it can successfully navigate any government regulation. I don't know about NFTs, gaming and Metaverse, so I won't comment.

As for the bubble deflating I still think we have further to fall, but the bottom will likely be reached in 2023. There's blood in the streets, but no capitulation as yet. I continue to watch with a great deal of interest from the sidelines.
 
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