Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Iron Ore Plays - Discussion

I've started a spreadsheet based on what Muzza posted and some points from Jet, maybe to try and compare some of these Iron Ore shares.

I didn't see the 60 minutes program last night, but going by some of the threads and the reaction to some of these share prices today, especially AGO, it reinforces what we already know. Iron shares are HOT at the moment.

I'm trying to learn more about Iron Ore and get a better understanding I hope, as to why some shares have taken off and why others others haven't, yet seem better eg. BTV was $1.90 at the end of fin year with market cap approx $41M with no JORC reported that I can see and GBG was just over $1.00 with market cap $520M, with JORC and BFS on the way.

I haven't researched all the companies in the list, maybe others would like to add information they know or suggest what could be added. You will also notice a worksheet Possible Dollar Return (PDR), this is my first attempt at trying to use this and I'm not sure if I'm correct. So maybe someone could comment on that too. I meant to add a comment to the Market Cap, these were all recorded on the same night, last week but unfortunately I didn't record the date.

As a disclosure of my Fe shares, I own GBG and MGX and have day traded CUL. My thoughts are GBG appears under valved to some of these other shares.

But hopefully others with more Iron Ore experience will share their thoughts here too, about some of the other companies.
 

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  • Iron Ore Shares.xls
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I've started a spreadsheet based on what Muzza posted and some points from Jet, maybe to try and compare some of these Iron Ore shares.

I didn't see the 60 minutes program last night, but going by some of the threads and the reaction to some of these share prices today, especially AGO, it reinforces what we already know. Iron shares are HOT at the moment.

I'm trying to learn more about Iron Ore and get a better understanding I hope, as to why some shares have taken off and why others others haven't, yet seem better eg. BTV was $1.90 at the end of fin year with market cap approx $41M with no JORC reported that I can see and GBG was just over $1.00 with market cap $520M, with JORC and BFS on the way.

I haven't researched all the companies in the list, maybe others would like to add information they know or suggest what could be added. You will also notice a worksheet Possible Dollar Return (PDR), this is my first attempt at trying to use this and I'm not sure if I'm correct. So maybe someone could comment on that too. I meant to add a comment to the Market Cap, these were all recorded on the same night, last week but unfortunately I didn't record the date.

As a disclosure of my Fe shares, I own GBG and MGX and have day traded CUL. My thoughts are GBG appears under valved to some of these other shares.

But hopefully others with more Iron Ore experience will share their thoughts here too, about some of the other companies.

Thanks LoveZn, perhaps we should call you LoveFe!!!!

Good way to compare those out in the market, long live the Pilbara!!!

Is there anyone with geological experience who could comment on the spreadsheet/projects presented? I also believe that GBG is undervalued when considered against it's peers, however not being a Geo, it's hard for me to properly assess the projects on their independent merit.

Cheers
 
I have pinched this from the other site as a i feel it is a good summary of Polaris and points out the great potential, especially with favourable views on iron ore in coming years.

"Hey guys I have spent the best part of the last two weeks (when I haven’t been reporting on FNT) trying to find the next big thing in the iron ore segment. And I think that POL might be the next one to take off. The criteria that I was using to test this was a simple business plan that has been executed beautifully by MMX/MIS, that is start with a smaller direct shipping ore (DSO) project to provide cash flow and earnings to help fund a major iron ore expansion project.

With targets like the Massive Ashburton Project (1200mt of iron ore)
Near Term Cashflow from Poondano (Late 2008)
Plenty of Drilling News Upcoming
Major Shareholder Lion Group (very deep pockets, will fund projects and sign offtake agreements)
Royalty agreement with Portman
Upcoming spinoff of non iron ore assets (in-specie distribution of shares to existing holders, rumoured to 1 for 5)


There is the potential for POL to run hard on release of news due to tight capital structure and current sentiment in the Iron Ore segment.


First a look at the share structure


Ordinary Shares 81,305,625
Options 20c Dec 08 20,749,977
Shares Held in escrow 29,729,730

Fully dilluted market cap approx $52mill.

Share Price 09/07/07 52.0cents


Top Shareholders

Herron Resources 29,729,730
Lion Group 16,558,330




Reasons To Buy Into the POL Story

- Well funded, tight stable capital structure (2 top shareholders control almost 50% of the company)
- Cash $5.5 million
- Investments 10 million shares in NTU worth 15 million
- Upcoming drilling results from Goldsworthy iron ore prospect
- Release of Poondano Pre_Feasability Study
- Enormous Prospective landholding (near major RIO,BHP mines)- Near term cash flow from Poondano late 2008
- Recent history of major iron ore discoveries
- Close to excellent infrastructure
- Massive Ashburton tennement (scoping study complete target 1200mt)
- Already signed royalty agreement with Portman involving tennements close to existing Portman mines.
- Listing of non iron ore projects into new company ( creating greater shareholder wealth)

Summary of tenements held

As a result of the acquisition of iron ore assets from Heron Resources Ltd (ASX: HRR, “Heron”)
in 2006, and the intended acquisition of a tenement package from International Goldfields Ltd
(ASX: IGC, “IGL”) as announced by IGL on 28 February 2007, Polaris will hold or have a
beneficial interest in 104 granted tenements and 34 tenement applications covering a total area of
6,400km² within the prime Pilbara and Yilgarn iron and gold provinces of Western Australia.
The specific projects and their mineral potential are listed in the attached table and include
advanced iron ore projects with near term development potential, iron ore exploration projects,
advanced gold projects and other gold, nickel and base metals exploration projects. Some of the
IGL tenements have measured and indicated gold resources and some Polaris advanced gold
tenements have gold mineralisation ready to be drilled out to establish resources complying with
the JORC Code.



Current focus

Poondano

Undergoing pre_feasibility study for the development of a 1 million tonnes per annum DSO project (low cost high margin)

Current resource 10-15 million tonnes


Carina and Chamaeleon Deposits

SIGNIFICANT NEW IRON ORE DISCOVERY WITH UP TO 65.5% FE
60KM NORTH OF KOOLYANOBBING, WESTERN AUSTRALIA
POLARIS BELIEVES 50MT DSO TARGET NOW ACHIEVABLE
• Carina Deposit, 60km NNW of Koolyanobbing, 1.6km long and up to 150m wide
outcropping mineralisation, has target potential of 35-50Mt iron ore, with:
− microplaty hematite and sub-crops of specular hematite;
− average 61.6% Fe, 2.57% SiO2, 0.73% Al2O3 and 0.078% P (direct
shipping grades) in rock chip samples from northern 1.1km of the deposit;
− best grade 65.5% Fe, 1.74% SiO2, 0.67% Al2O3 and 0.04% P;
• Chamaeleon Deposit comprising goethite-hematite outcrops with microplaty
hematite, has target potential estimated from surface sampling to be 5-10Mt;
• Other targets, including extension of Portman J4 Deposit into Polaris tenements;


Goldsworthy Deposit

Goldsworthy Project (Polaris earning 70% Leviathan Resources Limited 30%) Target 65 MT
The Goldsworthy Iron Ore Project comprises exploration licence E45/2358 covering 120km² and contiguous with BHP Billiton’s Mt Goldsworthy mining leases.
The area is favourably located near existing transport infrastructure. Although mining at Mt Goldsworthy ceased in 1982, the rail link to Port Hedland has been maintained, and is currently used by BHP Billiton for transporting ore from the Goldsworthy Extension Project in the Shay Gap area 50-100km further to the east. In addition the area is easily accessible from Port Hedland via the sealed Great Northern Highway.
E45/2358 is held by Leviathan Resources Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Perseverance Corporation Limited. Under an agreement with Leviathan, Polaris can earn a 70% interest by funding $2.5 million in exploration activities over four years.
The 3,000m RC drilling program is planned principally to test concealed iron ore targets identified through reconnaissance gravity surveys, geological mapping and regional structural interpretation. High priority iron ore targets have been identified where interpreted iron formations exhibit gravity highs and magnetic lows along favourable regional scale faults.
Other drilling targets in the area are considered to have potential for nickel-copper deposits similar to the nearby Highway deposit (recorded 37Mt with 115,000t nickel, 44,000t copper). Some targets are also considered to have potential for gold and/or platinum deposits.



And finally the massive potential of Ashburton, potential for 1200mt


Ashburton Project
The Ashburton Project consists of four granted exploration licences that cover 532km² located
between 10km and 40km directly south of the Rio Tinto Paraburdoo iron ore mine in the
southern Pilbara region of Western Australia. The area is considered prospective for transported
iron ore deposits such as buried Robe pisolitic channel iron deposits (“CID”) or surficial ironrich
gravels in palaeodrainages which extend in a southwesterly direction away from the ranges
hosting the Paraburdoo iron deposits (Figure 2).
Heron previously investigated areas of raised iron-rich palaeodrainage material and submitted
samples from five shallow pits for gravity separation test work. For the +4.075mm fraction, the
3.3SG sink product averaged 60.6% Fe, 6.3% SiO2, 2.25% Al2O3 and 0.09% P. The sink product
for the -4.075mm +1.00mm fraction had similar Fe (59.77%), lower SiO2 (4.86%); but higher
Al2O3 (4.20%). The mass recovery of +1.00mm material was in the order of 20%.
As previously reported, consulting engineers Project Development and Management Services
Pty Ltd (“Prodemas”) were engaged by Polaris in January 2007 to conduct a scoping study of the
project, based on available data, and to recommend future work programs. Prodemas has now
completed a report on the study, with favourable conclusions.
The scoping study assumption was a detrital iron target potential in the range 600Mt to 1200Mt,
based on an estimate of the area of surficial gravel beds mapped within the Company’s
exploration licences, and the reasonable expectation that the depth of the gravel beds ranges from
3m to 6m. At the 20% recovery indicated by Heron’s earlier test work, the +1.00mm iron ore
target potential could be inferred to be in the range 120Mt to 240Mt.
After incorporating likely capital and operating costs in their scoping study, Prodemas concluded
that the area has the potential to be a viable iron ore mining operation, and recommended further
geological and metallurgical investigations. Among the key strengths of the project noted by
Prodemas were its location close to existing plant and infrastructure, its large scale target
potential (potential to support 10MTPA operation over 20 years) and the low phosphorus content
of the +1.00mm beneficiated material making an attractive blending product.
The Prodemas study also identified the potential for possible hidden Robe pisolite type CIDs in
the project area.
The Ashburton Project has the potential to feature prominently in Polaris’ iron ore strategic planning.


Bungalbin Iron Ore Project (Portman operator, Polaris 2% royalty)

The Bungalbin Iron Ore project is situated near the Mt Jackson iron ore mining operations of Portman Limited, about 50km north of Koolyanobbing.
The project is currently being explored by Portman in accordance with an agreement wherein Portman has the right to explore for, and if and when mining leases are granted, mine iron ore.
If Portman delineates iron ore deposits and commences mining on tenements the subject of the agreement, it is required to pay a royalty to Polaris at the rate of 2% of the FOB value it receives for all iron ore transported from the tenements and sold.


Would be interested to hear peoples thoughts on POL, there is so much more news that I could of included just mentioned a couple of their 138 tenements (all in prime Iron Ore elephant country)

POL reminds me very much of MMX/MIS about 12-18 months ago and we have all seen how they have developed.

POL is just at the beginning with plenty of cash and very prospective land holdings could be plenty of upside from here.

Good management including the MD Kevin Schultz who is the man responsible for the discovery of the Carr Boyd Nickel Copper/Mine (which is well known by all YML holders)."

well worth a look at ;-)
 
ROY is starting to run on GBGs coattails. JV with GBG - they hold territory surrounding GBGs near term DSO project.

also some pilbara land won in ballot, and some sort of US uranium JV soon to be announced.

I like this one, very small cap. ROYA options are the way to go.
 
Thanks LoveZn, perhaps we should call you LoveFe!!!!

Well I made my money on the likes of ZFX, KZL and PEM, still holding ZFX, but thought about a month ago it was time to get into some iron.

Good way to compare those out in the market, long live the Pilbara!!!

Well I'm hoping the Mid West is the next Pilbara ;)
 
Attached is a pdf file of a scan run across 41 Iron Ore companies (smaller ones) from the opening price at the start of this FY (ie last Monday).

As you will see there are some impressive gains already this FY. (I can see YT researched stocks showing some the better gains !!)

Best gains are at the bottom.

Cheers
Muzz
 

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  • Iron Ore Plays YTD Change.pdf
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IFE will be listing tomorrow (Wednesday) at 1.00pm. IFE has JORC 44mt with 300-600mt potential.

The IPO was oversubscribed. It will be interesting to see what premium it opens at (if it does open at a premium).
 
I believe its all about location, our market is primarily export which means it needs to be north- west and it needs to be close to existing infrastructure.
Quite a few of these smaller players have great looking ground in the middle of nowhere! chances of actually going from dirt to working mine withing the expected -7 years of iron ore boom will be virtually impossible.

Thats why the pilbara region is so good, the big boys are already set up, they won't buy a brand new unworked piece of land away from their existing stuff its just not economic. Besides BHP and Rio have announced they plan to spend billions expanding the area.

Who knows if it was the 60min report that did it but i think there is now alot more attention on the Iron ore and Pilbara region in general now becuase of the reasons above.
 
ROY is starting to run on GBGs coattails. JV with GBG - they hold territory surrounding GBGs near term DSO project.

also some pilbara land won in ballot, and some sort of US uranium JV soon to be announced.

I like this one, very small cap. ROYA options are the way to go.

The options look interesting, codes are ROYO expiry 11/11/07 and ROYOA expiry 11/07/09, 20c exercise price in each case. regards YN
 
couple people asking for this table

i got it from hotcopper, originally it was published somewhere but links have been removed. this one has been edited slightly for UMC by the person posting.

acknowledgement to joelbaby who posted this table on hotcopper
 

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  • EmergingIronOreProducers.jpg
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Any views on Magnetite compared with Haematite ores? I found this snippet in a BBY report

Jet - I think this is an interesting question and an important distinction to be aware of for people investing in iron ore plays. MIS and to a lesser extent now MGX were basing their future success on the initial hematite profits funding bigger magnetite projects. Yet there are still many questions about magnetite imo.

The first is can anyone tell me of any magnetite project currently operating in Australia (either processing or direct shipping)?

Now take those points in your BBY report Jet - there appear to be a few inconsistencies - let's put the adv alongside the disadv

(i) GBG has access to key road, rail and port infrastructure (granted loading slots at Berth 5 and dedicated Berth 7 for the Karara project development) giving the project a distinct advantage over emerging projects that require significant expenditure on infrastructure
but (c) projects are not scaleable without significant new capital expenditure. [eg (i) forgets the costs of a slurry pipeline, power plant?]

(ii) after adjustments for mining waste to ore ratios of 0.5:1 and beneficiation waste to ore ratio of 2.7:1 the Karara 1,300Mt magnetite resource is equivalent to a large 500Mt @ 69%Fe hematite deposit with a strip ratio of 3.2:1
but this leads to (b) higher processing costs per unit of output

(iii) that magnetite concentrate / pellets have excellent exothermic characteristics and generally lower impurities ideal for steel making
[depends on the feedstock - higher impurities in feedstock means more costs in processing to get lower impurities - this is what makes many of these projects uneconomic]

(iv) prices received for concentrate and pellets are at significant premiums to fines and lump ore respectively
but of course because (a) higher capital intensity per unit of output + (b) higher processing costs per unit of output

(v) better processing environmental behavioural characteristics when compared to iron ore fines sintering
[after the original ore's been processed already]

(vi) that GBG by mid 2008 plans to be a profitable small-medium sized hematite ore producer.


On average pellets cost 2-3 times more than equivalent hematite production, but prices received are 10% and 40% higher for lump and fine ore respectively and generally 2-5% higher iron grade.
 
IFE listed today and rose dispite a weak market (and its magnetite).

Subscription price of $1.00

Opened at $1.52.

Closed today at $1.47.

Does this confirm that Iron is the new uranium?
 
Royal Resources i think will soon be talked about a bit more with adjacent tenements to GBG. Small market cap. A lot of potential. Smart management.Encouraging sp movement of recent times. Anyone agree??
 
FYI: Australian Bulk Minerals mines magnetite and exports pelletised ore from Savage River (NW Tasmania)

PLV has benefited from all the interest in Iron ore - up another ~13% today
 
I thought I would add TRH Transit Holdings to the list.

Very speculative as it is early days yet, but with the mania for Iron Ore and the huge area TRH has with such a small market cap, any success could have big results.

If you go to their prospectus, you can see an experts opinion on their leases. Quite close to a PMM mine which means that infrastructure is not too bad.

Warning : Very Speccy, DD required
 
Attached is a pdf file of a scan run across 41 Iron Ore companies (smaller ones) from the opening price at the start of this FY (ie last Monday).

Muzz could you run another scan please and add AXO (last two days huge increase :banghead:). Would be interested seeing how they are all going after another week.

Or could you tell me how you did the scan in Metastock, I'm still new to the program.

Thanks.
 
I found a scan that is close to what you did last time.
 

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  • iron Ore Exploration Results.pdf
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