So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
- Joined
- 31 August 2007
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I've been loading up on WOW. It is always a yin and yang between Woolies and Coles.
My tuckermeter, as evidenced by Mrs Gumnut's shopping dockets have been swinging back to Woolies, after some 9 months being Coles.
WOW has a respectable divi and if the XAO moves up this year there may be capital appreciation.
gg
There was some interesting WOW analysis on inside business this morning...some opinion that the good times are over and that according to the figures organic profit growth has stalled.
I'm not a "value" investor but i would imagine that they would be in a very similar situation to me, as in they are faced with a decision to buy more or take a substantial loss or do nothing...personally, about 80% of the time i buy more if funds are available to do so.
That's fine if you have $1 million, you would never go from say $250000 to $1 million with that strategy.
Once you get there then yes, no drama living off it.
How to build it up to there is the issue that I am sure most of us are concerned with at the moment, I am anyway.
There was some interesting WOW analysis on inside business this morning...some opinion that the good times are over and that according to the figures organic profit growth has stalled.
Here is another idea for 'income investing'.
Notwithstanding the selection of stocks on the basis of fundamental soundness and yield, or whatever parameters FAs want to use, if the stocks are optionable, one could sell calls at appropriate times to juice up returns.
Now folks here will probably recall that I have been highly critical of covered calls on these boards, but only in so much as how they have been promoted as a wealth building panacea, a get rich quick scheme and the nonsense of '4-8% per month' type marketing.
Used properly, they can be an excellent means of increasing cash returns from a long term holding.
I am not talking about systematically writing calls every month like the seminar simpletons teach you and charge you $3k for their crap, I'm talking about periodically and strategically writing calls at moments when it is statistically advantageous to do so.
One may also, depending on ones confidence, write them somewhat out of the money to mitigate the risk of being called out and precipitating a CGT event (which can be avoided anyway).
Using covered calls in this way (and acquiring the requisite knowledge) you can increase you annual cash returns safely by maybe 3%, maybe 5%, maybe 10% or more on your long term holdings, depending on a number of factors.
The idea is to write calls at strikes where technically and statistically the price is not likely to go. This means waiting for the right times to do so, rather than slavishly writing calls every month because some hyped up cretin on a stage says you'll get rich by doing so.
This could mean writing calls only a handful of times during the year, but an extra 3 - 5% per year could mean all the difference for those relying on income from a share portfolio.
I stress to avoid '4 - 8% per month' tw@ttery you see all over the net... it's bullshyte, Don't anybody give them your money.
DYOR
Good post Wayne
If you followed Elliot Wave theory you could sell a covered call at the end of a wave 1, wave 3 and wave 5.
+2Good post Wayne
If you followed Elliot Wave theory you could sell a covered call at the end of a wave 1, wave 3 and wave 5.
Backing businesses, rather than trading the share price can and does work, but you need to know how to analyse businesses and estimate their worth and it takes time to see off the randomness and fads of the market, the longer you’re holding period the lumpier your equity curve – end of story.
If you want income AND a smooth equity curve, selecting businesses for the yield they can produce is probably not your best bet. The smoothest equity curves come from the shortest holding period strategies.
I never thought I would see the day that such words would came out of a value investor.
:bier:
Yes remarkable insight from a value investor and something that all market participants who aspire to generate income from the market should understand.
On the other hand, there are 2 things that one should assess when it comes to picking their approach (regardless of the above).
1. What is your objective? If you can't sit in front of the screen all day then hyperactivem, TH style day trading probably isn't for you.
2. Where is your skill? Do you really know you are good at picking stocks or short term trading? Don't do something you are not good at just because it has the potential to make more income.
And let's face it, most people fail because they don't have the skill, not because they chose one approach over the other.
Given that DS is up for sale, what would you expect Woolies' ceo to say? "Don't touch it. It's cr@p" ?
No, of course he has to try and talk it up.
Big Biz is in a similar situation as Governments around the world: You know they're telling fibs because their lips are moving...
So you think the buyer of Dickies just walk in and buy with a positive comments from
former owner?
they would look through the books and at that sort of margin most of them would walk..that why there aren't many buyers jump up and down buying Dickies...
That why they have to close so many stores to make the number look presentable
Yesterday would have been a good day to top up on CBA @ $47.66 albeit ex-dividend. Yield 6.82% (9.74% grossed up with franking credits).
Why April?That's interesting. I'm thinking hard of going in deep around April depending on where the market is, the more battered it is the better I guess.
Why April?
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