Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Investing for income

I used the last (current!) downturn in the second half of last year to rebalance my mother's portfolio (SMSF - pension phase) more towards income. At that time the banks were just screaming YIELD (I bought some ANZ and CBA that should yield about 10% with franking credit over the next couple of years).

Income stocks. I would still look at the banks. My opinion is that the big banks still offer the lowest risk, highest yield pay-off. CBA is currently trading (ex-dividend) at 80% of its all time high price. If we assume little earnings growth but steady dividends over the next couple of years, at current prices you are still looking at around 6.5% yield, fully franked, at current prices. Perhaps wait for an opportunity to enter at a little better price or dollar average into a couple of bank stocks (my preferred are CBA and ANZ) over time.

In fact, the family SMSF held CBA right through the GFC crash. The only damage done was a drop in dividend of about 33% for eighteen months (three halves). That was the extent of the damage done by holding on to CBA right through the crisis.

Hybrid securities. You could look at hybrid securities. There will no doubt be plenty of more offers by the banks and large companies over time. I looked hard at the WOW offer last year but in the end decided that their shares will probably yield a higher real return over five years than their hybrids. Same with the banks. I personally think the banks shares were a better deal when they were being priced by the market at 7% yield last year.

Other high income stocks worth looking at:

I just bought some Iluka (ILU) last week before it went ex-dividend. It should be a good dividend payer in the short term - the next 18 months or so, as the company is raking in the cash at the moment. The price of zircon and rudite are most likely going to fall though so this stock is not without risk and needs to be watched carefully.

You might want to do your own research into the following:

RCG - not a liquid stock though. Will need to see a turn around in their results second half for me to maintain the faith but I currently hold).

MYS - doing my homework on this one. Looks good!

WLL - very small cap, illiquid share turnover on the exchange. good yield.

HSN - outlook for slow and steady growth, good yield.

IRI - had a big run-up in price lately but still yielding well.

FWD - solid company, solid performer, perhaps over-priced at the moment though. Would be worth considering buying at sub $12. I don't know why this hasn't been on my watch list.

Not financial advice, just some personal opinions without taking anyone's personal circumstances in mind.
 
Anyone have any ideas on Index funds ? how have they gone over the past couple of years.
In line with the all ords I guess ?
 
It is possible to do.... in fact that all I do...I build a continuous stream of dividend and rising each year at least 5% due to the stock rising earning and increase dividend payout .... it now out strip my saving rate...

thought not easy or hard it just require time and effort over the years and you have to like this stuff you willing to go where no one goes and know enough to ignore the brokers or headlines.

this is what I do but I have the knowledge now to know what business
are liable producer of income and which one has wild fluctuation in earnings

1. I deliberate target these business and keep tab on them

2. I accept stock price can fluctuate up and down but what I concentrate most is the stock doesn't goes belly up... because I wont sell out any time so as long as dividend keeps up that is fine I never need to touch the capital....

3. When the market panic or stock trades what I consider cheap and can deliver sustain the yield I buy in.. I'm very active when the market panic other than that I don't spend much time looking at them.

4. I only invest maximum in 20 stocks, mostly I have holding in 15 stocks and I know
them inside out, as price tanks or panic I buy more, because I know these stocks cant go belly up... I virtually done this for half of my stocks every time Panic kicks in.

5. I factor in dividend cuts for certain stock like TLS when I buy them at 2.87 I factor
in I wont get 10% yield I factor in I get 7% yield going forward... but I thank you
Thodey as long as he can continue deliver 10% yield.

6. When I think stock is unable to deliver the yield due to very strong price rise or price gone too crazy I'm out and wait for the next panic.

7. 80% of my money is invest in these, 20% I speculate and trades :)

If you can identify dog or un-love stock at the right time with reasonable knowledge the pay off could be substantial , as business will turn, earning will increase dramatically, dividend maintain or better and off goes the stock price...
TLS was unlove and a dog below $3, there is another Aussie icon business right now
I reckon un-love and a dog right now :) but it will turn that I'm 99% certain...

so it's not straight forward it require a bit of work
 
Anyone have any ideas on Index funds ? how have they gone over the past couple of years.
In line with the all ords I guess ?

Not really Mr B :(
A Buy & Hold investor using the State Street ASX-200 ETF (STW) has a total return of -1.96% (incl. divs) since May 2006, an annualized return of -0.348%.
Radge - Jan 2012.

Just had my SMSF accounts finalised last week, 23.4% for the 2010/11 FY. My TradeSim backtesting says that I should be getting just over 28% if I took every trade.

Hit and run and give back the minimum is the only way to get results, takes time and work but if you are not prepared for that then you may as well just hand it over to someone else to look after, its buy and hold regardless of who is doing it and in a good year you may get double digit results.

Just my :2twocents
 
It is possible to do.... in fact that all I do...I build a continuous stream of dividend and rising each year at least 5% due to the stock rising earning and increase dividend payout .... it now out strip my saving rate...

...

so it's not straight forward it require a bit of work

Do you want to share some of your favourites with us?
 
Exactly Julia. Below is the monthly chart of TLS.
Since the high in 1999 it has paid 3.73 in dividends but lost close to $6.00 in value.
I haven't taken into account the franking credits as they are of no benefit anyway if you are losing money.
Naturally the yield is going to increase, only because the stock price is falling.
http://www.telstra.com.au/abouttelstra/investor/my-shareholding/dividends/

(click to expand)

Boggo

What are you trying to prove with the charts?

TLS was only yield just over 2% when it traded at $9+ hardly the sort of price that would have a yield investor interested.

If you had bought T1 and held on you would have achieved an annual compound return of over 10%.
 
Boggo

What are you trying to prove with the charts?

TLS was only yield just over 2% when it traded at $9+ hardly the sort of price that would have a yield investor interested.

If you had bought T1 and held on you would have achieved an annual compound return of over 10%.

What return would have had if you had sold when it started falling from $9+, losing $6 per share is an expensive way to get an increased yield.
What is the formula for yield ?
 
Gearing is a good way to invest for income. Many years ago I bought warrants in RIO for about $11, and they on a par basis they pay a decent dividend now even after conversion.

gg
 
Exactly Julia. Below is the monthly chart of TLS.
Since the high in 1999 it has paid 3.73 in dividends but lost close to $6.00 in value.
I haven't taken into account the franking credits as they are of no benefit anyway if you are losing money.
Naturally the yield is going to increase, only because the stock price is falling.)

Indeed. However, some may believe that there has been a fundamental shift in the industry and a catalyst that changes the game.

TLS were first to market with a solid G3 network while others (Vodafone/Hutchison) stumbled. If TLS can stay ahead of the pack in investing in the quality of their mobile network they can maintain market leadership and their high margins on mobile.

TLS have a lot of opportunity to turn around their weakness in customer service and seem to be making solid gains in this direction.

The previous management (the Three Amigos) were a disaster that destroyed shareholder value, but the company has the ability to turn around under its current management. Which leads to the last point...

Under the previous management, the government rejected Telstra's tender for the NBN. Under the new management, Telstra negotiated a very sweet deal to sell their monopoly copper network back to the government. This is not without risk. NBN rollout delays can impact this revenue stream. There is the risk of a change of government unwinding the NBN rollout.

TLS appear to have enough free cash flow in the medium term to cover their dividend. The NBN buy-out of their copper network is a windfall for shareholders which hopefully will come to fruition and will be used sensibly so that it benefits shareholders.
 
What return would have had if you had sold when it started falling from $9+, losing $6 per share is an expensive way to get an increased yield.
What is the formula for yield ?

Selling it is exactly what you would have done if you were interested in yield - there were plenty of better yielding stocks around at the time. Your chart doesn't represent what somebody following a yield approach would be locked into.

My own experience with TLS was buying in T1 and selling not long after T2 and I have recently brought again under $3 bucks - buying it at $9 was unimaginable for my approach.

That said - their a couple of points about investing for Income – any investing really.

There is no difference between income generated from capital gains and income paid out as dividends – actually the capital gains are taxed more lightly if you hold for over 12 months.

Backing businesses, rather than trading the share price can and does work, but you need to know how to analyse businesses and estimate their worth and it takes time to see off the randomness and fads of the market, the longer you’re holding period the lumpier your equity curve – end of story.

If you want income AND a smooth equity curve, selecting businesses for the yield they can produce is probably not your best bet. The smoothest equity curves come from the shortest holding period strategies.
 
If you want income AND a smooth equity curve, selecting businesses for the yield they can produce is probably not your best bet. The smoothest equity curves come from the shortest holding period strategies.

:eek: I never thought I would see the day that such words would came out of a value investor.
:bier:
 
Backing businesses, rather than trading the share price can and does work, but you need to know how to analyse businesses and estimate their worth and it takes time to see off the randomness and fads of the market, the longer you’re holding period the lumpier your equity curve – end of story.

If you want income AND a smooth equity curve, selecting businesses for the yield they can produce is probably not your best bet. The smoothest equity curves come from the shortest holding period strategies.

How many "investors" have even heard of this stock, would you rather be holding this with a low yield or TLS with a high yield ?

Chart below covers the same period as TLS fall from $9+.

http://www.sharedividends.com.au/mnd

(click to expand)
 

Attachments

  • MND M 020312.png
    MND M 020312.png
    26.7 KB · Views: 4
Plenty of ways to mitigate risk short term trading.
10000 $ 10 stock returns $ 100 / cent getting on an up move of 10c or more isn't hat difficult.
Indexes 5 x FTSE only requires $ 30 k
DAX a bit more.
SPI about the same.

Perhaps Mr Burns should define what he means by 'Investing' for income.

'Investing' implies a relatively low activity strategy. Basically setup and leave alone, perhaps with a bit of infrequent tweeking.

Short term trading requires daily activity with perhaps some hours in front of the screen every day. Nothing wrong with that, but it's not 'investing' IMO.
 
How many "investors" have even heard of this stock, would you rather be holding this with a low yield or TLS with a high yield ?

Chart below covers the same period as TLS fall from $9+.

http://www.sharedividends.com.au/mnd

(click to expand)

I’m an ‘investor’ and I have heard of it (can’t pronounce it thought)
Actually I held it from 2003 until November 2007 (In hindsight I probably should still hold it)

It was brought on the basis of Business yield compared to market price. (Not to be confused with current cash yield).

If you are going to be any good at investing properly for yield you need to learn pretty quickly how to identify where yields are currently high because a company is liquefying their economic position – they are in effect in runoff and the cash yield will inevitably fall. You also need to be able to identify growing business before they start throwing off the excess capital.

High future business yields in relation to the current share price often get translated into capital gains – but not always, sometimes you just have to settle for an ongoing cash yield - thats the markets call.
 
Perhaps Mr Burns should define what he means by 'Investing' for income.

'Investing' implies a relatively low activity strategy. Basically setup and leave alone, perhaps with a bit of infrequent tweeking.

Short term trading requires daily activity with perhaps some hours in front of the screen every day. Nothing wrong with that, but it's not 'investing' IMO.

Or one can be an active investor. Reviewing stocks and prices weekly. Adjusting trailing stop losses weekly but keeping an ear on the market during the week. This reporting season is the first time I've made any trades and done some profit taking in three months (exception was taking up the DCG share placement offer in late December).
 
How many "investors" have even heard of this stock, would you rather be holding this with a low yield or TLS with a high yield ?

Chart below covers the same period as TLS fall from $9+.

http://www.sharedividends.com.au/mnd

(click to expand)

Again just for your interest Boggo

Did you know that in 1999 whilst TLS was paying a partly franked dividend of 43 cents (which included a special dividend?) giving a 4% franked up yield and had a prospective yield of around 2.5% without the special dividend,

that

MND was paying a 27 cent 100% franked dividend on an unadjusted price of around $3 that’s a franked up yield of over 12% - the prospective yield was even greater.

So your selection of charts was correct but your commentary was back to front.
 
How many "investors" have even heard of this stock, would you rather be holding this with a low yield or TLS with a high yield ?

Chart below covers the same period as TLS fall from $9+.

My good fellow, what is the point of your argument? You seem to be engaging in a bit of recreational Ignoratio elenchi. If the point you are making is to beware the trap of high yields as a result of falling market capitalisation using Telstra as a prime example then fine. I think your point is well made. Once could use many big cap companies to illustrate this same point; eg, AMP.

There are several fundamental analysis that can be used to help identify good income stocks. Perhaps we should discuss them? Talking about Monodelphus has nothing to do with that conversation though. Yep, great company who's share price has reflected a stellar growth story and strong management. So what does that have to do with income? Furthermore, did you buy MND in 1999? If you did, what analysis lead you to buy at that time and at that price (circa $0.92)? Otherwise, what is the point of your argument? Telling us that selling TLS at $9 and buying MND at $0.92 at the end of November 1999 would have been a good play is a little facetious. What does it have to do with choosing stocks to invest in for income right now?

If you are running a SMSF with an account in pension mode you need to generate income whether it is from dividends or realising capital gains. It is mandatory that the fund be drawn down by a minimum each year. I can assure you that fully franked dividends can be a very attractive proposition when you get the full franking credits as a tax return from the ATO.

As far as I can understand your arguments so far, in terms of answering the question of which stocks to look at for income is to look at MND but not TLS. I'm missing the relevance of your posts to this topic.
 
Top