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Inverted yield curve

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a powerful disincentive for any long term investment ( except maybe for property with 100% cash up front )

but do you run for 'safety' or try to keep abreast with inflation , leaving it sit in a bank at 0.5% p.a. is a guaranteed loss

some experts say the drama comes when the curve swings back to a normal path but will this inversion end , or everything just locks up , first
 
  • yield on the benchmark US 10-year note was 12 basis points higher to 4.69 per cent at 4.06pm in New York.
  • The 10-year earlier in the session nearly touched 4.70 per cent, the highest level since 2007
  • The 30-year was at 4.80 per cent.
  • the 2-year was at 5.11 per cent

The Aussie 10-year is at 4.48 per cent, and the 2-year at 4.12 per cent
 
still inverted, but significant falls in yield; has the Fed run its course?
  • US 2-year to 4.98 per cent, a drop of 12 bp
  • US 10-year note was 15 basis points lower to 4.65 per cent
  • 30-year was at 4.84 per cent.
in Aust, ten year sitting at 4.45 per cent
 
still maintaining the separation, and back higher. At close of trade
  • The yield on US two-year note was at 5.22 per cent;
  • yield on the US 10-year leapt 13 basis points to 4.84 per cent
  • the 30-year is at 4.93 per cent
Australian 10-year bond is at 4.54 per cent
 
US Treasury yields have fallen, with investors betting the Federal Reserve could be done raising rates for 2023.

Bond yields declined, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by about 12 basis points at 4.67 per cent. That comes after the benchmark yield topped 5 per cent last month. The two-year Treasury is yielding 4.95 per cent.

  • 10-year yield: Australia 4.79% ; Germany 2.71%
 
whipsaw.
.
the yield on the US 10-year note fell 20 basis points to 4.44 per cent. The 30-year bond is at 4.75 per cent .

this follows lower US CPI numbers. (Headline US inflation fell to 3.2 per cent in the 12 months through October, from a 3.7 per cent pace the previous month, with core inflation easing to 4 per cent)

Local yields are set to follow suit after the 10-year government yields closed at 4.66 per cent yesterday.

and a good day to Mr Market

.
 
I missed the 2-year in the last post, things are narrowing but the inversion is still present, in the US at least.

US 10‑year Treasury yield fell by 9 points to 4.45 per cent and the US 2‑year Treasury yield dropped 7 points to 4.84 per cent. Futures markets are certain Fed policymakers will hold rates steady at their December 12-13 meeting and imply a 33 per cent chance of a rate cut in March, up from 12 per cent a week ago.

Australian bond yields eased with the three-year return down to 4.2 per cent and the 10-year yield at 4.5 per cent. The two-year US yield advantage over its Australian midrange equivalent has shrunk to 61 basis points, from 120 basis points in September.
 
  • the yield on the US 10-year note has gone below 4.35 per cent.
  • The two-year Treasury yield was down 13 basis points to 4.75 per cent today, or nearly 60 basis points lower than the effective Fed Funds Rate.
  • the Aussie ten-year is 4.49 per cent
 
Today's CPI reading in US means the Fed may not cut rates as much as previously thought; Swap traders slightly trimmed their expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2024.
  • Treasury two-year yields reversed course and rose two basis points to 4.73 per cent
  • US 10-year yield: US 4.20%
  • Australia 4.32%
  • Germany 2.22%
 
Definitely not hawkish​

With today's Fed central bank decision, yields tumbled; two-year notes plunged as much as 23 basis points to just under 4.50 per cent. The yield on the 10-year note fell more than 14 basis points to a low of 4.06 per cent.
Fed swaps show more likelihood of reductions next year.
 
Policy makers dampen rate cut expectations

“With economic activity and labor markets in good shape and inflation coming down gradually to 2 per cent, I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past,” Fed Reserve governor Waller said, pointing to previous economic shocks that have precipitated rapid rate cuts.

Waller’s speech “was notably less dovish than we and the market expected after his forward-leaning remarks late last year”, an analyst said.

The yield on the US 10-year note rose more than 10 basis points
  • 10-year yield: US 4.07%
  • 2-year yield: US 4.22%
  • 10-year yield: Australia 4.15%
  • 2-year yield: Aus 3.85%
 
( in the latest of a series of occasional posts ...)

Equities dropped and bond yields surged higher after Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell further dashed rate cut expectations.

Powell made clear in a Sunday US evening TV interview that a rate cut was not imminent and that expectations for as many as six cuts through 2024 were too high.

The yield on the US 10-year note was 14 basis points higher to 4.16 per cent. The 2-year is at 4.43 per cent.

The Aussie 10 year is at 4.09 per cent while the 2 year is at 3.84 per cent and 5 year at 3.78 per cent.
 
US Treasury yields surged after a report showed producer prices increased 0.6 per cent in February; economists had forecast a 0.3 per cent advance. The PPI data stokes concern around February’s hotter-than-expected consumer price report earlier this week..
  • yield on the US 10-year note was 10 basis points higher to 4.29 per cent.
  • The two-year yield leapt to 4.69 per cent;
  • the yield on the 30-year bond was at 4.44 per cent.
The Australian government 10-year yield closed at 4.05 per cent with 2-years at 3.74 per cent
 
higher than expected (by some) US inflation numbers/ print.

inflation data has forced investors to push back expectations for rate cuts

and the curve ... still inverted, but narrowing

US Treasury 10-year yields jumped 19 basis points to the 4.55 per cent mark. The two year is 4.68 per cent

The yield on the Australian 10-year government bond added 15 basis points to 4.26 per cent. Our 2- year is 3.86 per cent.
 
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