Inflation

[mullokintyre]

Australian unemployment rate surprised upwards to 3.7%

And to top it off, they revised the January numbers downaward as well.
The breakdown shows a touch scary drop of 43,000 full time employees, offset by a gain in part time employment of 31,800.
next month will be interesting when the "seasonal" factors are less prominent.
Mick

 

[moXJO]

Good point. I just did that and got this -

High inflation is bad news for everybody. ​

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Understanding the cause of the current inflation is therefore, very important. Mis-understanding its causes is risky, as we may enact the wrong policies in response, exacerbating the problem. The stakes are high.​

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The argument that the current inflation is caused by Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin, goes something like this: Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is the primary cause of high inflation today. Both countries are major commodity exporters, especially so in the case of energy and food. As the war continues to interrupt the supply of these commodities to the global market, prices have been pushed up and will remain elevated until the war ends. Given that this war is, ultimately, the responsibility of one man (Vladimir Putin) and his obscene ideology, and the war has caused the inflation, then ultimately this inflation is his fault. If only he hadn’t invaded Ukraine, inflation would still be low and stable, and we could continue on with our lives. It follows therefore that, if the war ends, inflation will also come down significantly and, potentially, stop being a problem.​

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This narrative is wrong, plain and simple. The Biden administration’s un-ashamed parroting of this narrative for political gain is, to be kind, outrageous and symptomatic of a presidency that has lurched from one crisis to another, without ever taking responsibility. But this is a discussion for another day.​

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The task at hand is to understand where currently high levels of inflation came from. Was it Putin’s fault? Well, let’s look at the numbers. Inflation levels had remained at or very close to 1-2% in the US and Europe for nigh on 30 years leading up to the 2020 pandemic. Many economists, political leaders, and leaders within central banks, concluded that low inflation was now a permanent fixture of the modern economy.​

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But this started to change in 2021. US inflation rates jumped above 4% in April 2021, the highest reading since 2008. And inflation kept rising, well above 5% in July 2021, north of 6% by October, hitting 7% by the end of the year (the highest readings in 30 years).​

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Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine started February 24th 2022.​

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Inflation was already hitting its highest levels in decades before the invasion started. Yes, inflation rates have continued to climb since, moving above 9% in June this year. And, yes, higher food and energy prices as a result of the war are almost certainly a contributory factor to current inflation levels.​

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But, and this is the critical point, the war was not the cause of high inflation. We already had a serious and growing inflation problem before the war started. All the war has done is exacerbate a pre-existing inflation. The war ending, therefore, doesn’t necessarily solve the underlying inflation problem.​

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What, then, did cause this inflation cycle, the worst since the 1970-1980s inflation.​

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In response to the pandemic the world’s central banks printed a lot of money. Money printing, historically at least, has been inflationary. Close to 30% of the dollars in circulation today in the global financial system were printed in the last two years. It’s no coincidence, we would argue, that many of the 2 year inflation numbers for assets like housing, or even personal consumption goods like cars or eating out, have seen prices rise by about 30%. All of that new money had to find somewhere to go.​

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Then, with the economic recovery from the COVID pandemic already well underway last year, labour markets in the developed world very quickly moved close to full employment. Labour shortages were already becoming a problem in some sectors of the economy early last year. Into this hot economy with limited capacity to increase supply, the US government decided to pump a $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus (funded with debt and money printing by the US central bank). Further pumping up an already hot economy at close to full capacity.​

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The major central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, were too late in their response to this. The usual playbook for reducing inflation in a hot economy is to raise interest rates. The timing of this is critical, wait too long and inflation can get out of control as it starts to change expectations of economic participants. If people start to think inflation will remain high, they will demand higher wages and change spending habits, thus entrenching inflation for longer and creating an ‘inflation cycle’. The best answer to this is for central banks to raise interest rates early.​

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Unfortunately the central banks were late to the party, again, led by the Fed, who kept rates at their lowest levels in history through 2021, effectively continuing to stimulate the economy via monetary policy despite the fastest rise in inflation in the US in more than 40 years. This complacent response is now costing us.​

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Over-stimulus into a hot economy, followed by a slow response from central banks, was probably the cause of the 1970s inflation cycle too.​

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We always try and end these messages with an optimistic note, but sadly in this case, the....​

I don't agree with the "narrative". Just that it was being pushed everywhere at one stage.

 

[sptrawler]

It will be interesting to see how Albo deals with this issue and should give us an indication of future wage movements, thereby inflation trajectory IMO.

Union heads pressure Albanese to push again for wages to match inflation

There is demand for Anthony Albanese to say “absolutely” again to a minimum wage hike to meet inflation after he scored a political win by backing a wage rise last year.

www.watoday.com.au

Three major union heads and the secretary of a state trades hall are calling on Labor to renew support to increase the wages of Australia’s lowest earners at least in line with inflation in the face of soaring living costs.
United Workers’ Union national secretary Tim Kennedy, Rail, Tram, and Bus Union head Mark Diamond and Health Services Union national president Gerard Hayes called for the government to support an increase in line with the consumer price index ahead of this year’s national minimum wage case decided by the Fair Work Commission.

 

[moXJO]

It will be interesting to see how Albo deals with this issue and should give us an indication of future wage movements, thereby inflation trajectory IMO.

Union heads pressure Albanese to push again for wages to match inflation

There is demand for Anthony Albanese to say “absolutely” again to a minimum wage hike to meet inflation after he scored a political win by backing a wage rise last year.

www.watoday.com.au

Three major union heads and the secretary of a state trades hall are calling on Labor to renew support to increase the wages of Australia’s lowest earners at least in line with inflation in the face of soaring living costs.
United Workers’ Union national secretary Tim Kennedy, Rail, Tram, and Bus Union head Mark Diamond and Health Services Union national president Gerard Hayes called for the government to support an increase in line with the consumer price index ahead of this year’s national minimum wage case decided by the Fair Work Commission.

I wonder if public service wages deflate if there's deflation?

 

[sptrawler]

I wonder if public service wages deflate if there's deflation?

Public service wages used to lag public sector wages by a lot in the 70's-80's, due to the fact management professed a job in the public service compensated with job security, that concept went out the window in the 90's when first globalisation and then privatisation shredded the public sector.
Now public sector wages are as good, if not better than private sector, especially if it is skills the Government don't want to lose. The Govt sectors I've operated in (industrial) have had lean operations of highly skilled and competent people and the wages were good.
I was not in Admin, so I can't comment on that.

 

[JohnDe]

I don't agree with the "narrative". Just that it was being pushed everywhere at one stage.

I commented because I truly have not seen too many reports putting all the inflation blame on the Russian invasion. That may be because I try to keep away from substandard reporting and research material. And I subscribe to the theory 'Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth', and 'Repetition can even make known lies sound more believable'.

 

[sptrawler]

Public service wages used to lag public sector wages by a lot in the 70's-80's,

Should have read,
Public service wages used to lag private sector wages by a lot in the 70's and 80's.

 

[mullokintyre]

I consider myself privileged.

Problem is Mr Grenouile, privilege has the exclusivity of whiteness.
Your avatar looks more like a Green Tree Frog.
Mick

 

[qldfrog]

Problem is Mr Grenouile, privilege has the exclusivity of whiteness.
Your avatar looks more like a Green Tree Frog.
Mick

I must be a green man, Martian..
After COVID scam and Putin, it seems the latest trend is to blame UFOs, so maybe we put the inflation on the ittle green men

 

[sptrawler]

The really funny part is inflation works great, for those who can carry the debt on an appreciating asset, so why all the doom and gloom?
The only ones who get burnt are those who took on too much debt and those who don't have any money, or earning capacity.
Yet the major focus of the media, is on those who cant afford their home loans and 5 years ago the focus was on the banks for giving out loans to those who couldnt afford a home loan, when is the narrative going to go back to people being responsible for their decisions? Then they might start and make better ones.

 

[divs4ever]

I haven't read that one.

Care to post some news links, so I can catch up.

Most of what I read suggest the cause of current inflation problems stem from Covid-19, global excess cash handouts from governments and extremely low interest rates, supply chain problems, China lock downs and industry stoppages.... Putin was way down the list.

actually it was all the covert bail-outs after September 2019 ( the Repo crisis .. where those untrustworthy banks wouldn't trust each other with short-term loans even with 'secured loans ' ) everything else was cover for bailing out major 'Basel III compliant banks including one in Germany and one in Switzerland ... OH and a massive rescue package for Boeing

 

[Telamelo]

I haven't read that one.

Care to post some news links, so I can catch up.

Most of what I read suggest the cause of current inflation problems stem from Covid-19, global excess cash handouts from governments and extremely low interest rates, supply chain problems, China lock downs and industry stoppages.... Putin was way down the list.

Hey @JohnDe yeah I said that 'tongue in cheek with a little sarcasm' as everytime I complain to anyone about bills/living costs becoming more expensive - answer/reply is almost always invariably because of Ukraine conflict as all Putin's fault lol

 

[over9k]

U.S job numbers in, below estimates, economy can therefore handle more rate rises, growth plays slammed, energy steady, good times.

 

[over9k]

Hey @JohnDe yeah I said that 'tongue in cheek with a little sarcasm' as everytime I complain to anyone about bills/living costs becoming more expensive - answer/reply is almost always invariably because of Ukraine conflict as all Putin's fault lol

It is a major contributing factor, to be fair.

And I am not one to let public officials off the hook lightly.

 

[waterbottle]

We're probably heading into a plateau until the Fed releases their guidance for future hikes in March. Might get some guidance from the RBA on the meantime.

IMO, all the data so far indicates that the economy has managed to tolerate these rate hikes of 2022, so there's no reason not to continue hiking particularly given is >6%....

RIP property

 

[JohnDe]

It is a major contributing factor, to be fair.

And I am not one to let public officials off the hook lightly.

Here you go, read and be enlightened -

Is Inflation Putin’s Fault? | Dominion Funds

dominion-funds.com

 

[waterbottle]

US PPI @ 0.7% v. 0.4% expected. Main contributer was fuel. This was the highest result since June 2022 :/

 

[qldfrog]

Rents will not go down that's for sure

‘Government has screwed the councils’: Brisbane, Gold Coast may follow Logan granny flat fee

Logan City Council is introducing a $22,000 infrastructure fee to cover everyone who builds a granny flat to rent out. Brisbane and Gold Coast councils are also thinking of the new charge, linked to government plans to free up granny flats.

www.brisbanetimes.com.au

Open in incognito mode if you have trouble to read
I think it is more local govs screwing the citizens home owners /builders and by extension renters...
No one is safe with this rotten form of socialism we are headed for in this country..
And I bet you the owner will pay higher rates..before higher land taxes

 

[moXJO]

I commented because I truly have not seen too many reports putting all the inflation blame on the Russian invasion. That may be because I try to keep away from substandard reporting and research material. And I subscribe to the theory 'Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth', and 'Repetition can even make known lies sound more believable'.

The US government just creating a narrative along with the media.

 

[over9k]

US PPI @ 0.7% v. 0.4% expected. Main contributer was fuel. This was the highest result since June 2022 :/

Main contributor was fuel hey?