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So, up until last night, folks with money in the bank were forced to PAY interest for the pleasure.The European Central Bank raised interest rates by a larger-than-expected half-percentage point and unveiled a new plan to buy the debt of Europe’s most vulnerable economies, taking bold action to protect the currency union as it navigates the twin threats of skyrocketing inflation and slowing economic growth.
The move takes the ECB’s key interest rate to zero, ending the bloc’s eight-year experiment with negative interest rates and capping two weeks of drama for Europe, which saw Russia cut and then restart supply of vital natural gas and the government of Italy collapse.
The rate increase comes despite rapidly accumulating challenges facing Europe’s economy and the currency union’s cohesion – from a looming energy crisis to a protracted war next door, mounting political instability at home, and what many economists think has become an inevitable recession.
Some of these could make it difficult for the ECB to focus on combating inflation.
The ECB’s decision brings it more into line with other central banks, including the Federal Reserve, underscoring how the bank’s top officials are increasingly worried about high inflation.
The Fed is expected to raise its policy rate by 0.75 percentage point later this month to a range between 2.25 per cent and 2.5 per cent.
Inflation has risen to about 9 per cent on both sides of the Atlantic, and shows no sign of abating soon.
“There was tremendous pressure going into this meeting,” said one person familiar with the ECB’s discussions.
“The euro is weak, and you have the Fed which might raise rates by 75 or even 100 basis points. And then you come out with 25?”
Financial markets ricocheted after news of the increase.
Unemployment rising in the US... Companies issuing media releases of further job cuts.
Oil's up another ~1.3% bottle so perhaps not.We may have hit the bottom in hindsight, particularly if the market thinks the main driver of inflation (oil prices) has been beaten (looks like it may have been).
That may change next week if the Federal reserve comes out with a surprise 100bps hike. It wouldn't be the only central bank to have surprised...
Simply that markets don't move in a straight line.Not too sure where this risk-on run has come from. I guess volatility is part of the bear.
Add an engineered energy crisis and a media / social media catastrophe creating news and indeed the first power cuts to come in Europe could see the next not so black .Swan event.there is obviously a train-wreck coming , but are we watching the correct train-line
( it could easily be a catastrophic storm season in the Northern Hemisphere )
Yeah, too volatile to read and the geopoliticsOil's up another ~1.3% bottle so perhaps not.
Simply that markets don't move in a straight line.
Just my opinion, and I could well be wrong, but I'm expecting one more proper decline to bring about a bottom.
Proper meaning it's enough to be mainstream news, it gets the doom and gloom predictions coming out and so on. Just my
black swans are by definition unexpected , the energy debacle you could see coming in November 2020 ( after Biden was elected ) ( not to mention all the 'oil wars ' leading up to that )Add an engineered energy crisis and a media / social media catastrophe creating news and indeed the first power cuts to come in Europe could see the next not so black .Swan event.
At least inflation will be out of mind, Printing will be back and a real black swan can close the deal with fiat currencies.but i would be back in shares by then
No effect, all salaries have been slugged extra % in super this year.black swans are by definition unexpected , the energy debacle you could see coming in November 2020 ( after Biden was elected ) ( not to mention all the 'oil wars ' leading up to that )
the excessive printing well only Central Bankers can't see the consequence of that ( or so they claim )
and the crazy debt-shuffling game , plenty of hints since September 2019 ,
however we might have the mother-of-all train-wrecks right in the middle of the rail yard taking out almost everything ( since the current world LOVES inter-connections )
housing-affordability schemes , super-funds losing money etc etc .. nothing to worry about there ( trust me i am an aspiring politician , WINK )
i wonder how the coming job losses will affect the super-funds
Anything is possible and any theory can turn out to be wrong.That was my thesis too, but this past week - almost 5 days of straight gains on the NASDAQ has got me thinking otherwise.
i liquidated my super in 2010 , and shifted onto a disability pension in 2017 , so that super fund cash isn't mine ,No effect, all salaries have been slugged extra % in super this year.
Sadly no super fund we can invest to dry the suckers and move these dollars into our pockets
With the rise of ETF, the traditional fund manager is not making as much of super, and most of these etf fees are going o/s and not purely related to our own super system.i liquidated my super in 2010 , and shifted onto a disability pension in 2017 , so that super fund cash isn't mine ,
although i did invest in a few fund managers since then ... i have this theory it is better to investor in the bookmaker/casino than the gambling event ( race/game/card flip )
so i managed to dodge all those ( recent ) super contributions that have been propping up our economy
it will be interesting to see the payouts given to my fellow baby-boomers , i suspect the coming inflation will underwhelm the retirees ( maybe even the former politicians )
Anything is possible and any theory can turn out to be wrong.
I do have in mind though that powerful rallies aren't uncommon during a bear market so it's not of itself a definitive answer.
I'm keeping my mind open to both possibilities or a combination (eg short term bottom but not the bottom).
holding SUN hasn't been unprofitable ( SO FAR ) had to do a bit of extra buying/reducing , and i even escaped AMP making some profitWith the rise of ETF, the traditional fund manager is not making as much of super, and most of these etf fees are going o/s and not purely related to our own super system.
I would like to get some of my fees to sunsuper now renamed...and that is not possible
What i mean is super funds are a protected mandatory and enforced closed market taking fees irrespective of performances.holding SUN hasn't been unprofitable ( SO FAR ) had to do a bit of extra buying/reducing , and i even escaped AMP making some profit
and most ETFs have a wholesale equivalent if the ETFs offer an advantage to the fund manager ( reduced research and balancing and arguably less costs ) wouldn't a smart manager use SOME ETFs in the client portfolios , and 'cherry-pick the opportunities to beat the market
mind you some LICs still offer a better alternative for a fund manager as you can snipe them when trading at a discount
i was a bit concerned a few years back when there was a concerted push by several super funds to increase international exposure ( especially the union-based ones )
Mandatory green targets, mandatory investment in economic rebirth fund scheme etc..i am retired..aka ended work..but super is not my friendBadcock was before my investing time , and i had the time and the will so went 'freelance' ( my own non-SMSF adventure )
i could see regulations being a problem ( in formal Super ) even back in 2010 and my previous glimpses of compulsory super left me chilly , i could see all those 'extras ' eating any gains and with real inflation still to come down the road
but as a former Prime Minister once said , life is not meant to be easy ( but can you be rewarded for the extra effort ?? )
but remember it is all fun and games ( and lies and false data ) until the inflation stops THEN things get nasty
don't be fooled successive governments will be obsessed with meddling with Super ( it after all , is only another pot of money to them )
expect something crazy like compelling Super Funds to buy into a floated NBN ( either in partnership with TLS or some other sell-off )
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