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Inflation

Overnight, the ECB made a surprisng 50poinyt increase in interestd for the EU.
The bank also announced that it would be buying the debt of its most struggling economies ( don't know how they rank each one, but none of them seem to be in great shape).
From The evil murdoch press
So, up until last night, folks with money in the bank were forced to PAY interest for the pleasure.
At least now it is neutral.
Mick
 
Oil's up another ~1.3% bottle so perhaps not.
 







Wasn't my silliest topup.

(I make a point of not mentioning every trade I make as I don't want anyone shadowing me but I'm just posting this one so people know I'm not talking out of my ass when I say I've done something).

Next play is SOXL but haven't pulled the trigger on that yet. Might do that the day before the fed hike is announced as every other fed move lately has had a sea of green in response.
 
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Not too sure where this risk-on run has come from. I guess volatility is part of the bear.
Simply that markets don't move in a straight line.

Just my opinion, and I could well be wrong, but I'm expecting one more proper decline to bring about a bottom.

Proper meaning it's enough to be mainstream news, it gets the doom and gloom predictions coming out and so on. Just my
 
there is obviously a train-wreck coming , but are we watching the correct train-line

( it could easily be a catastrophic storm season in the Northern Hemisphere )
Add an engineered energy crisis and a media / social media catastrophe creating news and indeed the first power cuts to come in Europe could see the next not so black .Swan event.
At least inflation will be out of mind, Printing will be back and a real black swan can close the deal with fiat currencies.but i would be back in shares by then
 
Oil's up another ~1.3% bottle so perhaps not.
Yeah, too volatile to read and the geopolitics

Is there though?

That was my thesis too, but this past week - almost 5 days of straight gains on the NASDAQ has got me thinking otherwise.
If the Fed sticks to a 75bps rise then that may not cause the expected final leg down.

Also the highest risk asset - crypto - is holding up quite well. Its performance has correlated quite well with the NASDAQ for the past month.
 
black swans are by definition unexpected , the energy debacle you could see coming in November 2020 ( after Biden was elected ) ( not to mention all the 'oil wars ' leading up to that )

the excessive printing well only Central Bankers can't see the consequence of that ( or so they claim )

and the crazy debt-shuffling game , plenty of hints since September 2019 ,

however we might have the mother-of-all train-wrecks right in the middle of the rail yard taking out almost everything ( since the current world LOVES inter-connections )

housing-affordability schemes , super-funds losing money etc etc .. nothing to worry about there ( trust me i am an aspiring politician , WINK )

i wonder how the coming job losses will affect the super-funds
 
No effect, all salaries have been slugged extra % in super this year.
Sadly no super fund we can invest to dry the suckers and move these dollars into our pockets
 
That was my thesis too, but this past week - almost 5 days of straight gains on the NASDAQ has got me thinking otherwise.
Anything is possible and any theory can turn out to be wrong.

I do have in mind though that powerful rallies aren't uncommon during a bear market so it's not of itself a definitive answer.

I'm keeping my mind open to both possibilities or a combination (eg short term bottom but not the bottom).
 
No effect, all salaries have been slugged extra % in super this year.
Sadly no super fund we can invest to dry the suckers and move these dollars into our pockets
i liquidated my super in 2010 , and shifted onto a disability pension in 2017 , so that super fund cash isn't mine ,
although i did invest in a few fund managers since then ... i have this theory it is better to investor in the bookmaker/casino than the gambling event ( race/game/card flip )

so i managed to dodge all those ( recent ) super contributions that have been propping up our economy

it will be interesting to see the payouts given to my fellow baby-boomers , i suspect the coming inflation will underwhelm the retirees ( maybe even the former politicians )
 
With the rise of ETF, the traditional fund manager is not making as much of super, and most of these etf fees are going o/s and not purely related to our own super system.
I would like to get some of my fees to sunsuper now renamed...and that is not possible
 



The 2008 bear had similar rallies. The 1966-1982 bear, the same.

Post 2008 is when monetary policy added QE for asset price inflation. 2020 added Fiscal stimulus. Outside of IMF, nothing left.

If you can't raise rates above inflation to tame inflation and you can't pump cash to avoid a bear, then you will have a bear.


jog on
duc
 
An other example of inflation, I hear that tickets to Bruce Springsteen concerts are selling for USD 5000.


That's the face value of tickets directly from the official seller. Not scalpers or private resales but the original face value.

This is a ticket to attend the concert in the normal manner. It's not a meet and greet with the artist, it doesn't get you in the tour bus or backstage or anything like that. It's a ticket to the show.

Now I'll admit I'm not a big fan of Springsteen but my point isn't about taste in music or whether he's still any good live or not but simply that this is getting truly ridiculous. What ordinary person can afford that sort of money to go to a concert?

Whatever happened to bands just doing a second show the next night if there was enough demand?
 
holding SUN hasn't been unprofitable ( SO FAR ) had to do a bit of extra buying/reducing , and i even escaped AMP making some profit

and most ETFs have a wholesale equivalent if the ETFs offer an advantage to the fund manager ( reduced research and balancing and arguably less costs ) wouldn't a smart manager use SOME ETFs in the client portfolios , and 'cherry-pick the opportunities to beat the market

mind you some LICs still offer a better alternative for a fund manager as you can snipe them when trading at a discount

i was a bit concerned a few years back when there was a concerted push by several super funds to increase international exposure ( especially the union-based ones )
 
What i mean is super funds are a protected mandatory and enforced closed market taking fees irrespective of performances.
I wish i could invest in that gravy train.
For a while, Australia United, Magellan, Badcock or even AMP..you remember..were benefiting from these indirectly but now with etfs, you have to get shares in Vanguard, etc and not being mainly Australian super exposure, it is not so much an easy ride...
Vanguard returns will feel inflation
 
Badcock was before my investing time , and i had the time and the will so went 'freelance' ( my own non-SMSF adventure )

i could see regulations being a problem ( in formal Super ) even back in 2010 and my previous glimpses of compulsory super left me chilly , i could see all those 'extras ' eating any gains and with real inflation still to come down the road

but as a former Prime Minister once said , life is not meant to be easy ( but can you be rewarded for the extra effort ?? )

but remember it is all fun and games ( and lies and false data ) until the inflation stops THEN things get nasty

don't be fooled successive governments will be obsessed with meddling with Super ( it after all , is only another pot of money to them )

expect something crazy like compelling Super Funds to buy into a floated NBN ( either in partnership with TLS or some other sell-off )
 
Mandatory green targets, mandatory investment in economic rebirth fund scheme etc..i am retired..aka ended work..but super is not my friend
 
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