Inflation

[over9k]

NDX futures back into the green by 1% and counting.

Almost as if markets overdid it yesterday hey?

 

[eskys]

Am wondering if it's treat or trick

 

[over9k]

Am wondering if it's treat or trick

It's volatility. Just run it.

 

[eskys]

Yes, will do that, thank you

 

[waterbottle]

I wouldn't read too much into it. US markets have a habit (particularly in the past few months) of being up 1% only to end the session down 3%
I think the GDPNow figures will be key to watch in the coming weeks. The trend is negative!

 

[over9k]

I wouldn't read too much into it. US markets have a habit (particularly in the past few months) of being up 1% only to end the session down 3%
I think the GDPNow figures will be key to watch in the coming weeks. The trend is negative!

My point was just that when I mentioned how we saw the big move on the fed hike and then a plummet (like all the other times) that we generally aren't seeing two big move (in the same direction) days in a row.

So an FNGU buy yesterday is (currently) looking like a ~4.5% gain at open today. FNGD was ~16% the day before. FNGU was ~12% the day before that.

So that's more than 30% in three days just buying on the red and selling on the green to then bet back against the market the very next day.

 

[divs4ever]

I wouldn't read too much into it. US markets have a habit (particularly in the past few months) of being up 1% only to end the session down 3%
I think the GDPNow figures will be key to watch in the coming weeks. The trend is negative!

i suspect the Fed ( or it's proxies ) are buying ( or spoofing ) futures markets before the US market opens

 

[over9k]

Lots of talk about the balance sheet just being a passive runoff now.

 

[divs4ever]

Lots of talk about the balance sheet just being a passive runoff now.

yes i am seeing those opinions as well , it will be really scary if that is true ( and the market is having reluctance to buy , already )

 

[over9k]

yes i am seeing those opinions as well , it will be really scary if that is true ( and the market is having reluctance to buy , already )

Why scary?

 

[over9k]

My point was just that when I mentioned how we saw the big move on the fed hike and then a plummet (like all the other times) that we generally aren't seeing two big move (in the same direction) days in a row.

So an FNGU buy yesterday is (currently) looking like a ~4.5% gain at open today. FNGD was ~16% the day before. FNGU was ~12% the day before that.

So that's more than 30% in three days just buying on the red and selling on the green to then bet back against the market the very next day.

FNGU up ~8% at the open. There's nothing to this.

 

[divs4ever]

Why scary?

what if all those securities not catching a bid are the result of widespread reluctance to buy , so far the Fed is NOT buying ( so they tell us ) but not SELLING ( just letting them mature ) China is not buying so much ( no surprise there ) Japan is holding less ( but heck they had some nasty problems at home )

so if the Fed is not buying , China is buying less ( or none ) Japan is buying less , that is the three biggest buyers ( in recent times ) Russia will NOT be buying ( anytime soon ) , that used to be about the No. 8 foreign buyer buyer , BUT the Treasury bonds are allegedly the world's most liquid security ( but now there is a struggle to sell them at a fair price )

if nobody wants Treasury Bonds as collateral on loans , well we saw that in September 2019 and we got Repo Madness .. now what if the Fed has a week off and DOESN'T come to the rescue , this time

if September 2019 was scary , wait until the Fed refuses to answer the phone


in that case two of the biggest extortionists step into the game the IMF and World Bank ( with Warren Buffet getting some nice cherries as well )

 

[over9k]

I believe the idea is to quite deliberately just let them mature divs.

 

[over9k]

Meanwhile, another NRGU buy topped up (at 365 this time) while I was busy doing something else again.

 

[divs4ever]

I believe the idea is to quite deliberately just let them mature divs.

that is what i understand is to happen , but after they have had to swivel their plans so often ( since 2018 ) i keep other plans handy on the shelf

 

[divs4ever]

Brits Suffer Pay Cut As Inflation Outpaces Wage Growth​

Brits Suffer Pay Cut As Inflation Outpaces Wage Growth | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

yep , pretty much as i remember it in the 1970's , the upside was i had a mortgage yo pay and had to find creative ways to increase income ( decades before 'side-hustles ' become fashionable )

but DON'T take it for a granted there will be no new twists ( it is always ' different this time ' until history proves it wasn't )

 

[qldfrog]

Inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as deadly as a hit man.

Ronald Reagan...
Might have been quited before .. did not check but so true

 

[3 hound]

Inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as deadly as a hit man.

Ronald Reagan...
Might have been quited before .. did not check but so true

Everyone loves the early stages of an inflationary cycle - random guy on internet.

 

[over9k]

Everyone loves the early stages of an inflationary cycle - random guy on internet.

"Everyone's a genius in a bull market"

 

[noirua]

Milton Friedman - Simple English Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

simple.wikipedia.org