Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Inflation

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Risk is on. GME up 40% in 2 days. Crypto remains down with a $2 trillion exodus since late 2021.10 year bonds down. Oil stagnant.
Market realising there is no where else to put their cash. The only way cash ould outperform anything else is if interest rate were >10% which is just not going to happen.

Sunshine and lollipops. The sky ain't falling.
 
waterbottle said:
Risk is on. GME up 40% in 2 days. Crypto remains down with a $2 trillion exodus since late 2021.10 year bonds down. Oil stagnant.
Market realising there is no where else to put their cash. The only way cash ould outperform anything else is if interest rate were >10% which is just not going to happen.

Sunshine and lollipops. The sky ain't falling.
Click to expand...

It's the J curve, this will get worse before they get better - every economics graduate ever.
 
So. I came out of retirement to help a mate repair a job (building). Seems everyone I know found out and I was flooded with work I don't want.
I've done a few inspections and newer buildings have some huge issues due to bad workmanship. There's also no one to come back and fix them. Also, the guys that do turn up, don't know how to fix them. And I'm not interested in fixing them, but these are people (or their kids) that I know.

A lot of experience and know how has retired. Younger guys chase the highest paying, easier, fast jobs. They lack a lot of what were considered the basics.

The other thing is you can't get material. Or it's constantly increasing every few months. Builders can't "fixed price" stuff because the costs keep floating up. I'm hearing terms like the "profitless boom". Some product lines I simply can't get.

Unless shipping gets back then costs will keep increasing and delays will blow out. Talk of bringing in trades is pointless. It's the material that caused the problem.
Australia is deemed unprofitable compared to Europe so we don't get the attention.

Everyone in shipping jacked up their costs. Even the Aussie ports.
 
moXJO said:
So. I came out of retirement to help a mate repair a job (building). Seems everyone I know found out and I was flooded with work I don't want.
I've done a few inspections and newer buildings have some huge issues due to bad workmanship. There's also no one to come back and fix them. Also, the guys that do turn up, don't know how to fix them. And I'm not interested in fixing them, but these are people (or their kids) that I know.

A lot of experience and know how has retired. Younger guys chase the highest paying, easier, fast jobs. They lack a lot of what were considered the basics.

The other thing is you can't get material. Or it's constantly increasing every few months. Builders can't "fixed price" stuff because the costs keep floating up. I'm hearing terms like the "profitless boom". Some product lines I simply can't get.

Unless shipping gets back then costs will keep increasing and delays will blow out. Talk of bringing in trades is pointless. It's the material that caused the problem.
Australia is deemed unprofitable compared to Europe so we don't get the attention.

Everyone in shipping jacked up their costs. Even the Aussie ports.
Click to expand...
Is it true that Houses only have to last 15 years now as opposed to 50 years, by Law?
 
moXJO said:
So. I came out of retirement to help a mate repair a job (building). Seems everyone I know found out and I was flooded with work I don't want.
I've done a few inspections and newer buildings have some huge issues due to bad workmanship. There's also no one to come back and fix them. Also, the guys that do turn up, don't know how to fix them. And I'm not interested in fixing them, but these are people (or their kids) that I know.

A lot of experience and know how has retired. Younger guys chase the highest paying, easier, fast jobs. They lack a lot of what were considered the basics.

The other thing is you can't get material. Or it's constantly increasing every few months. Builders can't "fixed price" stuff because the costs keep floating up. I'm hearing terms like the "profitless boom". Some product lines I simply can't get.

Unless shipping gets back then costs will keep increasing and delays will blow out. Talk of bringing in trades is pointless. It's the material that caused the problem.
Australia is deemed unprofitable compared to Europe so we don't get the attention.

Everyone in shipping jacked up their costs. Even the Aussie ports.
Click to expand...
And wait for the man made petrol/transport crisis..
I am sure it is temporary:
If you produce oil, you can not get f8nance and if you dare making a profit, you are a black sheep and naughty boy...so get slapped with a windfall profit tax
All according to plan
 
moXJO said:
So. I came out of retirement to help a mate
Click to expand...
Same.
I've noticed plenty of half built houses.
Was actually enjoying the peace and serenity at a site, whilst observing various houses in various states of unfinished"disrepair".

The silence was deafening...

I'm worried about the potential Ponzi nature of the housing market..

No problems getting a slab and intial plumbing done, but it's slow going from there.
 
Mohammed Hazabig'un said:
Is it true that Houses only have to last 15 years now as opposed to 50 years, by Law?
Click to expand...
Depending on the maintenance you put in.
Eg: keep exterior timber/cladding painted every 7 years.
Keep roof and gutters clear of leaves. And if coastal change the roof screws every 10-15 years as they sacrifice first and will then rust a hole in your roof.

Metal roofs have a 30 year warranty and that's the most important part of the house really. If the roof is a complex one you can run into problems. Also expensive to replace something complex. Basic flat, gable shapes are God.

Plumbing done out of that pex pipe (plastic) which apparently lasts 40-50 years.
Not a fan of it, as rats will chew it if you bait them. But haven't seen to many problems with it.

Most sealants 25 years.

Interior will last as long as maintained.

Kitchens probably not. The cheap ones don't last. Cupboard hardware such as hinges can wear/rust fast. Sliding door fittings, handles etc. They can be of course replaced. But many China ones are lucky to last 5 years.

So it's the cheap imported stuff from China that tends not to last.
 
frugal.rock said:
Same.
I've noticed plenty of half built houses.
Was actually enjoying the peace and serenity at a site, whilst observing various houses in various states of unfinished"disrepair".

The silence was deafening...

I'm worried about the potential Ponzi nature of the housing market..

No problems getting a slab and intial plumbing done, but it's slow going from there.
Click to expand...
Shipping costs and wait times are ridiculous.
 
A couple of points I have difficulty getting my head around.

Seems like everything I buy (school fees, petrol, energy, food, council rates..... etc) have been rising faster than the official CPI for years, not just recently. So in my mind the official CPI doesn't accurately reflect the real inflation rate anyway.

Talk of inflation eroding debt.
I was taught that the nominal interest rate charged on debt equals the real interest rate (cash rate) plus inflation. So while the principle is eroded by inflation, the compounding interest paid on that principle should at least rise by inflation rate plus some.
Seems that interest charged by banks for debts such as mortgage are currently well below cash rate plus inflation. Must be a lot of interest rate catchup in the future.
Maybe I'm wrong.
 
martaart077 said:
A couple of points I have difficulty getting my head around.

Seems like everything I buy (school fees, petrol, energy, food, council rates..... etc) have been rising faster than the official CPI for years, not just recently. So in my mind the official CPI doesn't accurately reflect the real inflation rate anyway.

Talk of inflation eroding debt.
I was taught that the nominal interest rate charged on debt equals the real interest rate (cash rate) plus inflation. So while the principle is eroded by inflation, the compounding interest paid on that principle should at least rise by inflation rate plus some.
Seems that interest charged by banks for debts such as mortgage are currently well below cash rate plus inflation. Must be a lot of interest rate catchup in the future.
Maybe I'm wrong.
Click to expand...
No, you're right, everything you've mentioned SHOULD happen.

We haven't been living in "normal" times for quite a while. The word "unsustainable" wasn't first rolled out five minutes ago.
 
over9k said:
No, you're right, everything you've mentioned SHOULD happen.

We haven't been living in "normal" times for quite a while. The word "unsustainable" wasn't first rolled out five minutes ago.
Click to expand...

Before joining this site I was puzzled by the phrase "kick the can further down the road".

Now I see it as the perfect encapsulation of the interface between politics and economics.
 
Mohammed Hazabig'un said:
Is it true that Houses only have to last 15 years now as opposed to 50 years, by Law?
Click to expand...
there was gossip around that retirement villas are only built with a life expectancy of 20 years ( the building , not the resident )

have heard nothing about the law on that , but i have seen some interesting examples of 'acceptable ' new constructions just in the local district
 
moXJO said:
So. I came out of retirement to help a mate repair a job (building). Seems everyone I know found out and I was flooded with work I don't want.
I've done a few inspections and newer buildings have some huge issues due to bad workmanship. There's also no one to come back and fix them. Also, the guys that do turn up, don't know how to fix them. And I'm not interested in fixing them, but these are people (or their kids) that I know.

A lot of experience and know how has retired. Younger guys chase the highest paying, easier, fast jobs. They lack a lot of what were considered the basics.

The other thing is you can't get material. Or it's constantly increasing every few months. Builders can't "fixed price" stuff because the costs keep floating up. I'm hearing terms like the "profitless boom". Some product lines I simply can't get.
Click to expand...
that is what i have been seeing over the last 6 years , although i would add the issues seem to be compounding , and in some cases a distinct drop in the quality of materials used ( big and small items )

makes you wonder about the second part of the narrative ' build back better '
 
divs4ever said:
that is what i have been seeing over the last 6 years , although i would add the issues seem to be compounding , and in some cases a distinct drop in the quality of materials used ( big and small items )

makes you wonder about the second part of the narrative ' build back better '
Click to expand...
Supply lines are really bad at the moment. I'm custom making a lot of stuff like it's the dark ages.
 

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