Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Inflation

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over9k said:
FTFY

Seriously, if (when) mining falls over, what does this country have left aside from perpetual population growth and house flipping?
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It's a serious concern.
Even the cafes are going bust, which is basically our speciality. Even that can't survive Australia's business and employment regulations.
There are pockets that punch above in various industries, but thats in spite of Australian government and rregulations. Actual direction is lacking.

Constant wage rises are insane. Let it pop or we will stagnate and wither away.

I'm actually concerned about holding assets in AUD.
 
over9k said:
So despite the nasdaq having the largest drop, the s&p isn't that far behind it. That tells you that this crash is much broader based.

That tells you something ;)
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there is every chance some players are over-leveraged ( or at least they were last week )

hit some stop-losses on the way , a smattering of margin calls ( i don't use margin loans , but haven't heard from associates that have them )

there is some chance we are on the verge of a shake-out , but just a shake-out or something more serious ( requiring secret bail-outs and lifelines )

that is the question

Monday should start with a negative sentiment but will it continue ? ..
now if the ASX plummets ( say down another 100 points ) will that help spook the international markets that open after the ASX
 
moXJO said:
It's a serious concern.
Even the cafes are going bust, which is basically our speciality. Even that can't survive Australia's business and employment regulations.
There are pockets that punch above in various industries, but thats in spite of Australian government and rregulations. Actual direction is lacking.

Constant wage rises are insane. Let it pop or we will stagnate and wither away.

I'm actually concerned about holding assets in AUD.
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start gearing towards soup kitchens then ,the governments will have to do something to slow food riots ( and soaring crime rates )

yes the Oz scenario is crazy .. but we are far from unique it is just major media is suppressing the news "( unless it fits the big agenda )
 
BossMan. said:
We export education 🤣

www.theguardian.com

Australian universities accused of awarding degrees to students with no grasp of ‘basic’ English

Academics say universities have turned a blind eye to language shortcomings because of the revenue generated from international student fees
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

View attachment 181927
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this is far from a new trend , now ten years back that was often the result of easily corrupted educators ( not common , but not as rare as you would hope )

but since 'our best and brightest ' routinely headed off internationally even back in the 1970's ( and some returned when they retired from their career ) that has been a longstanding trend , we have arguably exporting education for more than 50 years ( some forms more legitimately than others )
 
Inflation isn't just shrinking buying power.
There were 2,183 ASX-listed stocks at the end of February 2024, down from 2,289 stocks at the end of the 2023 financial year.
 
moXJO said:
Hitting the food industry as well as everything else. It's just too expensive to employ people here:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08...turing-industry-fear-rising-imports/104169064
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Bills increasing (I'll include rates, food, whatever you care to mention) wouldn't be nearly the problem it is if housing costs reduced to counteract it but seeing as they keep running the immigration taps full blast housing continues to get more and more expensive every day.

My real fear is that they will actually end up driving things like food production overseas in order to avoid letting housing drop. Every other industry except mining has been annihilated so how long is it going to be before they destroy EVERYTHING in the name of house price rises?

Something is going to have to give and if they refuse to let it be housing then literally everything will be destroyed before housing goes too and that's when the full on great depression style event or hyperinflation occurs.

I've made many posts about my speculation that they're going to try to inflate their way out of the country's debt burden and I'm still very heavily leaning that way. If I'm correct then it means that the time to load yourself up to the hilt with debt is about now.
 
U.S. Economy "Almost Certainly" Already In Recession, Argues Veteran Portfolio Manager Mike Green


over9k said:
I've made many posts about my speculation that they're going to try to inflate their way out of the country's debt burden and I'm still very heavily leaning that way. If I'm correct then it means that the time to load yourself up to the hilt with debt is about now.
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now you maybe correct , but i was ingrained to avoid debt wherever possible ( i i stopped investing in debt by the end of 2017 )

( hyper) inflate their way out or a major war ( or both ) are the proven ways out , they seem to be unpleasant solutions to me , but then i am not even knee-deep in debt
 
waterbottle said:
McDonalds and Wendy's are having trouble selling their fast food.
Louis Vouton is no longer selling like it used to.
Big tech is now missing on earnings.
PMIs have been pointing to a manufacturing contraction for several months, and now the services PMI is showing the same.
Europe and Japan have been in technical recessions.

How many non tech businesses are actually doing well? I don't personally know any. In fact, they've been struggling to stay afloat since the hikes started.
Look at Australian commodities - all have taken a dump as China has been struggling since 2022.
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For the real economy I agree it looks like a mounting slowdown is taking place. There's a lot of things that individually could be dismissed as random occurrences but which collectively paint a picture. Everything from machinery prices to politics.

For the market though, well the way I'm looking at is there seems to be this sense of doom and gloom and yet the ASX All Ords and the 200 hit a new all time high just two days ago, with the "crash" on Friday taking us all the way back to levels last seen on...... Tuesday this week. Meanwhile if I look at a weekly chart of randomly chosen ASX300 stocks and just flick through them well there's plenty with a clear uptrend and a green candle for the week.

Hence I'm unconvinced about the wheels coming off the broad market just yet. Time will of course tell.

A thought I have in mind, and this is looking at it internationally, is the Fed cuts rates in the relatively near future and does so quite heavily in an effort to prop the real economy and in response the market takes off to the upside. Then inflation takes off too, since supply chain issues haven't been resolved, and forces the Fed to once again hike rates and this time to do so aggressively. That renewed hike is what kills the markets and real economy.

When I say hike aggressively, I mean to a level significantly above where they are now. So down, everything starts to stabilise, they go on pause, then inflation takes off, rates are hiked, kaboom.

Just my thoughts, I could well be wrong. This post may age like wine or it may age like milk left out in the sun. :2twocents
 
Smurf1976 said:
For the market though, well the way I'm looking at is there seems to be this sense of doom and gloom and yet the ASX All Ords and the 200 hit a new all time high just two days ago, with the "crash" on Friday taking us all the way back to levels last seen on...... Tuesday this week.
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Aus markets have run 12% since their pre-covid high. 4 & a half years to climb 12%. The next high after then was early august 2021. They've run 5.5% since then. 5.5% in three years is a joke. Aus markets are anemic. Not even worth looking at.
 
sptrawler said:
The all ords stil isn't much higher than the pre GFC high, which is a sad indictment, when you consider that was 17 years ago.
The GfC high was about 7,000, from memory and we now are around 8,000, nothing to write home about over nearly quarter of a century and multiple stimulus packages IMO.
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well the markets SHOULD be a reflection of the economy , after all they do represent a selection of businesses and better yet still smaller shareholders own a piece of that business a guide to the sentiment on that business , a solid business SHOULD get good investor interest , and a badly run business should get little shareholder interest until it shapes up

now sure some business have increased their share price over 10 times in the last 12 years ( TNE for example ) while others have dropped more than half their share price ( AMP for example ) so the question must be is the underlying Australian economy travelling all that well

as mentioned by some earlier in this thread without rising house prices and mineral exports maybe not , in earlier times Australia used to ride on the sheep's back and yet today we barely mention our wool and cotton industries
 

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