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Cause a recession to make workers desperate enough that they accept a pay cut.
The recession we have to have 2.0
Cause a recession to make workers desperate enough that they accept a pay cut.
The recession we have to have 2.0
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Who's buying our resources? China's got its own problems and it isn't buying like before....
over9k
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CPI up 1.0 this quarter. Core cpi was better than expected.
Next meeting will be a hold.
Next meeting will be a hold.
over9k
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Pivot to india or mine something else (RIO were rotating over to copper ages ago).
FMG is getting pummeled for a reason. It's a bit of a canary in the coal mine if you ask me.
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well there is a question floating about cancelling debt ... i would normally just laugh and roll my eyes , but considering who is overwhelmed by debt ( including taxpayers , courtesy of the never responsible government )
you just know the taxpayer will wear the heavy end ( it always seems to end like that )
i suspect only a very select few will like the 'Great Reset '
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yes in the 1980's we got a compulsory super scheme as a compromise for decent pay rises
expect some sort of grift this time as well
Knobby22
Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast
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Headline inflation rose slightly, core inflation fell slightly.
No rate cut coming and probably no rate rise either.
Food inflation falling, insurance and rent still high.
Inflation is sticky.
Government needs to tighten spending.
www.abc.net.au
No rate cut coming and probably no rate rise either.
Food inflation falling, insurance and rent still high.
Inflation is sticky.
Government needs to tighten spending.
Inflation up but RBA's 'core' target fell, delivering 'good news' on future rate rise
Australia's annual rate of inflation lifted to 3.8 per cent in the June quarter, up from 3.6 per cent.
www.abc.net.au
Knobby22
Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast
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Apologies, I should have said mean trim, not core inflation.Headline inflation rose slightly, core inflation fell slightly.
No rate cut coming and probably no rate rise either.
Food inflation falling, insurance and rent still high.
Inflation is sticky.
Government needs to tighten spending.
Inflation up but RBA's 'core' target fell, delivering 'good news' on future rate rise
Australia's annual rate of inflation lifted to 3.8 per cent in the June quarter, up from 3.6 per cent.
Futures now have 0% of rate hike, good chance of cut February 2025. Long wait for those in difficulty.
I was expecting this timeline. Either by the end of this year or early next year
What about the public service?
over9k
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Note the divergence right at the GFC? The private sector jobs market simply never recovered. Hence why the jobs market for grads has been so bad for (as a millennial) our entire adult lives (unless we studied something that employed us in the public sector, anything in healthcare for example).
60-80 years after a baby boom you have a healthcare boom.
And this private sector contraction-public sector (healthcare in particular) expansion divergence has gone into overdrive post-covid. Just look at the red vs blue at the end of the bar graph. When you consider the base effect that the private sector numbers will show once the vaccines are announced (i.e subtract the negative blue in covid from the positive blue in 2021-2022) you can see that net, private sector growth has gone nowhere since the end of 2019.
Comically, underemployment, which used to be an absolutely chronic problem, has actually improved, not because of any kind of actual macro level improvements in the jobs market, but because so many people are now working multiple jobs to make ends meet:
This trend (problem) is not going to improve. Inflation is going to continue to soar and the jobs market is going to continue to get worse and worse.
over9k
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Meanwhile, the fed holds, exactly as expected.
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Will keep bloating..we still have room until we reach 50% of workforce..."work force" term used loosely....
over9k
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Monetise the debt (pay it off with printed cash) to avoid a recession in nominal terms despite the fact everyone are getting ground into dust.
It'll feel like a recession, it'll be a pay cut in real terms, but the data won't actually show a recession so from a PR perspective reference the political games they'll avoid the "hurr we had a recession under labor" narrative that the libs would pummel them with.
The one curveball there is state governments and local councils which can't just print the money, hence headlines like this:
The fat needs to be trimmed off of almost every government funded entity you can think of but the fat's usually in charge so they'll only cut budgets to then make the service/function worse.
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Just stop the pay rises. Wage stagnation ala 2008-2020.
over9k
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The problem is the bloat. Here's an excerpt from a monash paper that was published in 2023:
"From 1989 to 2021 there was an ongoing transformation of the professional staff workforce, which is classified as those university employees with a wide variety of roles, including but not limited to administrative functions. Professional and academic staff numbers have grown roughly in proportion to each other, with professional staff remaining the majority. There has been a significant shift in the composition of the professional staff workforce. After 1989 women came to make up nearly two-thirds of professional staff, marking a departure from academic staffing patterns. During the same period, professional staff cohorts became more ‘top heavy’. The most junior classifications of Higher Education Worker (or HEW, a classification used to capture cross-university data for employee level) all but disappeared between 1994 and 2020. The proportion of HEW 1 to 3 reduced from a third of the workforce to one-thirtieth in this period. Across the sector, an increase in the average HEW level appears to reflect the emergence of new professional staff roles, such as third space professionals (those staff whose role is part-academic and part-professional), along with the impacts of technological change reducing the need for less skilled roles and the greater use of external contractors. At the same time, there was an increase in the proportion of the most senior leadership roles within universities, with the number of senior executives per staff member more than doubling".
You can read the whole thing here: chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://melbourne-cshe.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/4735688/CSHE-WorkingPaper_University_Workforce_Croucher_2023.pdf
And for anyone wondering, if you do a bit of digging into this, you'll find that it's not just the university system that's become "top heavy". It's the entirety of the public service, the healthcare system, police, everything.
If you cut the budgets then we all know which staff will be cut and which will remain. There's just no way to solve the problem at anything other than the political level where the minister(s) simply restructured the entire organisation.
And good luck getting that to happen.
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They want pay rises to continue, that it what resets the Government debt by inflating the tax take, the only downside is it inflates asset prices and devalues people's buying power.
Peoples wages have gone up 5%, but at the same time the cost of everything has gone up 20% and the cost of housing/rent more, so people feel they are poorer while being told they are better off.
The only other option is to have a recession, but that doesn't increase the tax take, but it does maintain the value of your money and stop the inflation of assets eg houses.
With bracket creep fuelling record tax collections, fresh data has revealed Australia’s personal income tax burden grew faster than any other advanced economy last year.
Australians’ personal income tax burden, already among the highest in the world, grew faster than any other advanced economy last year, as bracket creep fuelled record Commonwealth tax collections.
According to a fresh report published by the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) on Thursday evening, a single, average wage-earner without children paid approximately $24,791 in personal income taxes last year — up 7.6 per cent on 2022 levels.
In comparison, Luxembourg, which recorded the second-largest increase in personal average tax rate rose by just five per cent.
The reality is that the Government needed more money, there is only one way to increase it tax, unfortunately it just means a reset of the buying power the wage slave has.
People adapt, they are good at that, IMO the real problem is, it is making doing business in Australia a lot less competitive and the money is being taken from the productive side of the economy to bolster the non productive side.
If it was being used to improve the productive side, that would be fine, living standards would improve, but it isn't so where living standards settle is a work in progress IMO.
If you're feeling too scared to spend money right now, some relief is on the way
While the cost of living crisis continues in Australia, there is some relief on its way from July.
www.abc.net.au
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Visually this is what I expected. Looking at Victoria you have to wonder if the rest of Australia will follow a similar route.
Too much public service interfering with every aspect of business and personal lives is adding way too many costs.
You also get changed voting patterns and a bunch of handout sheep. For every 1 competent public service workers, I could throw a rock and hit another 20 deadshts.
Meanwhile we get a bunch of bureaucratic hoops to jump through for business. A bubble wrapped lifestyle where even national parks are getting fenced off. But mainly the spending.
I saw a council was spending $35k to maintain a palmtree on a pole or something. To remove it would cost $1million. On what planet does it cost that much.
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Nah the solution is simple and you've already identified it. You trim unnecessary staff.
Those who don't will go the same way as the universities who are now struggling for relevance in a post-covid society.
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