Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Inflation

I guess it's a case of perceived flaws with productivity, Vs loss in output due to private sector profit margins. ;)
Yet so many builders collapse? so maybe more than the private sector profit margins, it could be the leeching of state and councils fees, reports and layers and layers of extra costs which actually sink even goverment programs..
Private sector just gives up, governments just go over and over budget and time
 
It is what it is.

Inflation will be big. It would not surprise me to see Australian interest rates greatly rise and lazy companies go to the wall. If they cannot make money in a low interest rate environment how will they fare with 1980's style rates?

Much of Australia's "wealth" is on paper in property made by boomers who did nothing to earn it except sign a bill of sale buying some dump in the Keating years.

A good recession would clean the stable out for the generations coming up who cannot afford to buy a home or rent.

gg
 
It is what it is.

Inflation will be big. It would not surprise me to see Australian interest rates greatly rise and lazy companies go to the wall. If they cannot make money in a low interest rate environment how will they fare with 1980's style rates?

Much of Australia's "wealth" is on paper in property made by boomers who did nothing to earn it except sign a bill of sale buying some dump in the Keating years.

A good recession would clean the stable out for the generations coming up who cannot afford to buy a home or rent.

gg
Yes if people are finding it stressful ATM, during a recession unemployment of 10% isn't uncommon and applying for a job alongside of 100's of others after it, isn't fun.
I really wouldn't wish that on anyone, been there done that and it isn't nice.
 
so maybe more than the private sector profit margins, it could be the leeching of state and councils fees, reports and layers and layers of extra costs which actually sink even goverment programs..
I think that’s a common problem across the economy.

High prices aren’t producing high profit due to structural inefficiencies and cost burdens. Applies to all sorts of industries.
 
Yet so many builders collapse? so maybe more than the private sector profit margins, it could be the leeching of state and councils fees, reports and layers and layers of extra costs which actually sink even goverment programs..
Private sector just gives up, governments just go over and over budget and time
have a good long talk to an old builder ( i have to several )

the first issue is the builder doesn't get the cash up front ( for the finished project ) at best he gets a down payment and a lot of the project is financed , so delays cost , rising costs impact , etc etc and normally the price is agreed upfront .( so they need to be a tradesman and clairvoyant )

big building companies have so many projects in motion it seems like a Ponzi scheme
 
have a good long talk to an old builder ( i have to several )

the first issue is the builder doesn't get the cash up front ( for the finished project ) at best he gets a down payment and a lot of the project is financed , so delays cost , rising costs impact , etc etc and normally the price is agreed upfront .( so they need to be a tradesman and clairvoyant )

big building companies have so many projects in motion it seems like a Ponzi scheme
They need a certain amount of churn, as they only get payments at milestones, the big problem is when they get hit with a materials or labor cost increase mid churn. It adds to the ones at the beginning of the building process all the way through, so really it is a ponzi.

As a old mate who passed away used to always say, engineering and building companies are only one bad quote away from disaster.

I worked for a company once, two man business moved up into the big league, took on a big contract in 1979.
They didn't read the tender exactly right and one small paragraph called for 316 stainless, they costed on galvanized.
Well it was a great job, until they lost their shirts. :(

Phil Matera had a similar issue when he contracted to do work at Elizabeth Quay quite a few years ago.

"Leighton is such a big company and we're only a small speck in the earth really," he said. "The reality is that in a few days I will be forced to go into administration and probably shut my business."

Mr Matera said there had been several changes to the original contract as work progressed, but stressed his initial tender did not include any costings for the soil removal and replacement.
 
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Apologies but can not see the video?
It was a quick newsreel on the latest inflation going up, don't know why they put it on private. I haven't looked at all the latest economic figures but I predicted at the beginning of the year that you won't see an interest decline until next year sometime. Now it looks like another hike is coming in the near future.

 
Yes if people are finding it stressful ATM, during a recession unemployment of 10% isn't uncommon and applying for a job alongside of 100's of others after it, isn't fun.
I really wouldn't wish that on anyone, been there done that and it isn't nice.
This is what the graduate jobs market has felt like for ~15 years.

There are some exceptions obviously, but I'll be telling my kids to be very very selective with what they study.
 
This is what the graduate jobs market has felt like for ~15 years.

I have a friend who completed an internship (end of second year - traditionally at the end they offer you a job) of a cohort of 60 people at a Deloitte internship not a single person was offered a position.

Was a competitive internship to get as well. The continued contraction of the consulting sector is only going to worsen the prospects for graduate positions.

Not a good time to be in University if you aren't a top prospect w/ an exceptional academic record.
 
This is what the graduate jobs market has felt like for ~15 years.

There are some exceptions obviously, but I'll be telling my kids to be very very selective with what they study.
yep , worked with dozens of graduates ( that couldn't get a better salary ) as a 'blue collar worker ' back in the last big recession ( and the one before that )
 
I have a friend who completed an internship (end of second year - traditionally at the end they offer you a job) of a cohort of 60 people at a Deloitte internship not a single person was offered a position.

Was a competitive internship to get as well. The continued contraction of the consulting sector is only going to worsen the prospects for graduate positions.

Not a good time to be in University if you aren't a top prospect w/ an exceptional academic record.

Plenty of trades need apprentices.
 
I have a friend who completed an internship (end of second year - traditionally at the end they offer you a job) of a cohort of 60 people at a Deloitte internship not a single person was offered a position.

Was a competitive internship to get as well. The continued contraction of the consulting sector is only going to worsen the prospects for graduate positions.

Not a good time to be in University if you aren't a top prospect w/ an exceptional academic record.
I know one that got a grad offer, was told in the induction they expected 65 hour weeks (13 hour days), did 13 hour days, got to the end of his training contract and was shown the door for "only doing the bare minimum".

Even if you're the exception I don't think it's worth it. Hourly, these jobs pay less than minimum wage. It all works on the notion that if you do your time in the trenches then you'll bring in the big bucks later. The whole system now runs on dangling the carrot.

The statistical probability that you'll get the carrot is almost zero.
 
An update on the Australian cruising issue, that was posted recently.



Major cruise lines have revealed to Cruise Passenger they don’t believe Australian state governments that comprehensive plans to address infrastructure needs such as dry dock and hull-cleaning facilities, capacity issues, and high operating costs.

The table below shows how much it would cost to dock Quantum of the Seas at major ports around the world, as well as how much certain destinations would pay in total if they had the same as NSW’s 720,849 passengers in a season.

View attachment 179347

Methodology and port charges (all prices in AUD)​

  • Sydney charges $44.72 per cruise passenger
  • Melbourne charges $32 per cruise passenger
  • Barcelona charges $4.65 per cruise passenger
  • Amsterdam charges $0.416 per gross tonne + $22.67 per passenger per 24 hours, their charges were calculated on an eight-hour stay
  • Rome charges $10.87 for simply disembarking, or up to $25.46 for a roundtrip cruise homeporting out of Rome.
  • Miami charges $19.19 per passenger
  • Juneau charges $19.52 per passenger
  • Cozumel charges $0.392 per gross registered tonne
  • St Thomas/St John charges $10.29 per passenger
  • Port Canaveral charges $0.411 per 24 hours, their charges were calculated based on a 10-hour stay
I posted that in another thread yesterday, then this morning I heard wharfies are going for an 18% pay rise, so one would think that would have to affect inflation.
Hopefully the tax cuts coming up, counteracts the award wage rise that happens at the same time and puts a lid on inflation.
I certainly don't feel confident. :(
 
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