Inflation

[over9k]

Look what I said 25 January this year....
Crystal clear balls.
I must be some kind of self claimed genius or something

Well you know rock, I was talking to this girl the other night, and she had a friend...

 

[moXJO]

It can actually be an incentive for people to avoid tax, one of the reasons many people choose to deal in cash is to avoid gst.

I recently renovated two houses, and the number of tradies that asked for cash saying they wouldn’t charge me gst was huge.

Obviously the way the scam works is the give me a price 10% lower if I pay cash, because they won’t have to pay GST, but then they get to pocket the rest of the amount tax free.

The larger the GST amount the bigger the incentive for people to avoid both gst and income tax.

I had everyone from tree loppers, roof painters, concreting, flooring, fencing and an electrician all request cash for a discount.

Yes GST will catch some of the tax when they spend that cash, provided they don’t in turn spend the cash at places doing similar things.

They pay gst on material. You don't pay it.
They skip the income tax.

 

[divs4ever]

Former RBA Governor on why interest rates won't come down soon​

Former RBA Governor on why interest rates won't come down soon

Former RBA Governor Ian Macfarlane says our economy has held up well given the sharp spike in interest rates. He thinks that economic strength plus high inflation mean rates are more likely to go higher than lower in 2024.

www.firstlinks.com.au

time will tell , others think interest rates will plummet sooner rather than later

 

[Smurf1976]

time will tell , others think interest rates will plummet sooner rather than later

I reckon the really big shock to financial markets will come when the economy drops but rates don't follow.

Most will be expecting the usual bailout from central banks. It'll come as a massive shock when it doesn't eventuate.

I'm thinking the focus remains on inflation and if the market tanks, so be it is where this is heading.

 

[over9k]

Yeah, demand side concerns for most things are mounting rapidly now.

 

[Value Collector]

They pay gst on material. You don't pay it.
They skip the income tax.

They will just claim the GST they pay on the materials against other jobs they actually put on the books.

Also, in labour intensive jobs, cost of materials make up only a very small part of the total cost eg, hair cuts, car washing, lawn mowing, painting, tree lopping, tiling etc etc.

Infact a lot of tradies like plumbers and electricians and tilers get you to purchase the fixtures they install separately directly from the suppliers and only charge you the installation which is probably 95% labour, apart from a few minor things like silicon and a bit of cable they supply.

 

[Junior]

I reckon the really big shock to financial markets will come when the economy drops but rates don't follow.

Most will be expecting the usual bailout from central banks. It'll come as a massive shock when it doesn't eventuate.

I'm thinking the focus remains on inflation and if the market tanks, so be it is where this is heading.

I think the usual bailout will occur.

They have to tell us rates aren't coming down, otherwise markets will rally and inflation won't fall in the short term.

 

[divs4ever]

I think the usual bailout will occur.

They have to tell us rates aren't coming down, otherwise markets will rally and inflation won't fall in the short term.

the market seems to betting on a bailout ( of some kind )

they might have to rename it , so the few conservative investors left don't flee the markets

in the past inflation has momentum but also waves higher ups but retraces back to a higher low

but it could be different this time ( since other rules and definitions have been abandoned )

 

[wayneL]

I think the usual bailout will occur.

They have to tell us rates aren't coming down, otherwise markets will rally and inflation won't fall in the short term.

Have we forgotten about bail-ins so soon?

Why Bank Bail-Ins Are the New Bailouts

Public outcry over rescuing banks with taxpayer money in 2008 forced a switch in governmental tactics, making bail-ins the new bank bailouts.

www.investopedia.com

 

[divs4ever]

Have we forgotten about bail-ins so soon?

Why Bank Bail-Ins Are the New Bailouts

Public outcry over rescuing banks with taxpayer money in 2008 forced a switch in governmental tactics, making bail-ins the new bank bailouts.

www.investopedia.com

no me !! , i stopped buying bank hybrids/capital notes in 2017 ( and let them all redeem/mature )

trivial exposure to WBC , still hold some SUN desperately trying to rid itself of the banking arm , MQG ( so slippery only JP Morgan will out last them .. and smaller regional like ABA , MYS and KSL ( the last two have wealth management arms )

however ... more than one 'bail-in' will be political suicide ( i also try to keep my bank balances comparatively small nowhere near $250K )

 

[wayneL]

no me !! , i stopped buying bank hybrids/capital notes in 2017 ( and let them all redeem/mature )

trivial exposure to WBC , still hold some SUN desperately trying to rid itself of the banking arm , MQG ( so slippery only JP Morgan will out last them .. and smaller regional like ABA , MYS and KSL ( the last two have wealth management arms )

however ... more than one 'bail-in' will be political suicide ( i also try to keep my bank balances comparatively small nowhere near $250K )

Wise. However my reading on the matter indicates that the $250k threshold doesn't apply to bail-ins.

This has me worried. My thesis has me largely in cash at the moment, apart from some coal holdings and PMs, and some small holdings in retailers with experimental buy/sell parameters.

Desperate to find a safer home for it.

 

[moXJO]

They will just claim the GST they pay on the materials against other jobs they actually put on the books.

Also, in labour intensive jobs, cost of materials make up only a very small part of the total cost eg, hair cuts, car washing, lawn mowing, painting, tree lopping, tiling etc etc.

Infact a lot of tradies like plumbers and electricians and tilers get you to purchase the fixtures they install separately directly from the suppliers and only charge you the installation which is probably 95% labour, apart from a few minor things like silicon and a bit of cable they supply.

The gst is a run through. They are dodging income tax you are dodging gst. They will pay gst on everything from material, insurance, subbies etc. Material can be up to 50% or more of a job total.

If you do too many cash jobs and run out of the ato metrics on materials then you open up to an audit.

If it's just a small job then I agree. But there's not a lot you can do with large sums of cash except spending it on groceries.

 

[divs4ever]

Wise. However my reading on the matter indicates that the $250k threshold doesn't apply to bail-ins.

This has me worried. My thesis has me largely in cash at the moment, apart from some coal holdings and PMs, and some small holdings in retailers with experimental buy/sell parameters.

Desperate to find a safer home for it.

Cyprus and Greece shook me to the core

it is one thing to be bailed-in by your government but when unelected bureaucrats ( many of whom don't even reside it the country ) dictate such measures ..

i saw today it was them .. how long before they try that to me

( crushed my faith in Central Bank Digital Currencies as well )

am searching for a safer home as well although this farm is fairly remote and the last owner was a pest control contractor ( and i don't mean mice and ants ) but the last three have become crime zones ( gentrified or not ) seems to most mostly Sco Mo's and Albo's 'skilled workers ' ( half of them seem to have a certificate in machete )

but physical assets where i can ( dodging gold and silver because desperate kleptocracts will be searching for them )

 

[sptrawler]

The gst is a run through. They are dodging income tax you are dodging gst. They will pay gst on everything from material, insurance, subbies etc. Material can be up to 50% or more of a job total.

If you do too many cash jobs and run out of the ato metrics on materials then you open up to an audit.

If it's just a small job then I agree. But there's not a lot you can do with large sums of cash except spending it on groceries.

That's what I mentioned earlier, benchmarking is getting tighter and tighter, the more transactions that are carried out by eftpos the more access to info, I don't think people realise how big the ATO computer is.
Howard spent billions on it from memory and that was a long time ago.
I may be wrong, but I would think data matching is advancing at the same speed as AI is advancing. LOL

 

[moXJO]

That's what I mentioned earlier, benchmarking is getting tighter and tighter, the more transactions that are carried out by eftpos the more access to info, I don't think people realise how big the ATO computer is.
Howard spent billions on it from memory and that was a long time ago.
I may be wrong, but I would think data matching is advancing at the same speed as AI is advancing. LOL

In my opinion it's stupid to run an economy too tight. A lot of this cash ends up circling round the economy.

 

[Value Collector]

The gst is a run through. They are dodging income tax you are dodging gst. They will pay gst on everything from material, insurance, subbies etc. Material can be up to 50% or more of a job total.

If you do too many cash jobs and run out of the ato metrics on materials then you open up to an audit.

If it's just a small job then I agree. But there's not a lot you can do with large sums of cash except spending it on groceries.

The gst is a run through. They are dodging income tax you are dodging gst. They will pay gst on everything from material, insurance, subbies etc. Material can be up to 50% or more of a job total.

If you do too many cash jobs and run out of the ato metrics on materials then you open up to an audit.

If it's just a small job then I agree. But there's not a lot you can do with large sums of cash except spending it on groceries.

Just to be clear, I didn’t accept any of the offers to defraud ATO, so I didn’t avoid any tax.

——————

But, I addressed all your other points in previous posts.

 

[sptrawler]

In my opinion it's stupid to run an economy too tight. A lot of this cash ends up circling round the economy.

That's true, but the more the tax base reduces, the more the Govt has to find different ways of obtaining the tax required.
Spending on Welfare, Military, transition to renewables is going UP, not down.

That's why I said it would be better while we have a full house Labor in office to reset the GST, it is fast efficient and can be easily offset for low income people.

Otherwise the system keeps swirling down the S bend, next is the drop in the top tax rate, where do they pick up that loss?

It is just a can kicking exercise, which means more tightening on the cash economy, the Govt needs $X to function they will get it from somewhere, economics 101.
At the moment it is inflation, but that is going to wear thin as people realise even though they are getting pay rises, it is buying less and less and the house price rises is making their savings look like a waste of time.
That is what knocked out Hawke and Keating, people get fed up with going backwards, Albo knows this so I'm expecting a change of direction next year.

 

[qldfrog]

That's true, but the more the tax base reduces, the more the Govt has to find different ways of obtaining the tax required.
Spending on Welfare, Military, transition to renewables is going UP, not down.

That's why I said it would be better while we have a full house Labor in office to reset the GST, it is fast efficient and can be easily offset for low income people.

Otherwise the system keeps swirling down the S bend, next is the drop in the top tax rate, where do they pick up that loss?

It is just a can kicking exercise, which means more tightening on the cash economy, the Govt needs $X to function they will get it from somewhere, economics 101.
At the moment it is inflation, but that is going to wear thin as people realise even though they are getting pay rises, it is buying less and less and the house price rises is making their savings look like a waste of time.
That is what knocked out Hawke and Keating, people get fed up with going backwards, Albo knows this so I'm expecting a change of direction next year.

View attachment 165856

How many billions wasted on obsolete submarines , block of metals and Chinese chips called fighter jets, NDIS, aborigines scams, vaccines which are not vaccines, etc.
There is no problem with tax fraud, there is a problem with government spendings entitlement and ability to convince sheep people that current level of taxes are required/ acceptable...whereas income taxes are hardly 100y old:
wwI if I remember

 

[Value Collector]

..whereas income taxes are hardly 100y old:

Yeah, but so are many expensive government services for example the age pension and health care.

Back in the day before income tax, the government didn’t really spend anything on the age pension, but now we support people for decades on the pension, and keep them alive with expensive health care pills and procedures.

We can certainly lower government spending, but people have different opinions as to where the line should be drawn.

 

[farmerge]

How many billions wasted on obsolete submarines , block of metals and Chinese chips called fighter jets, NDIS, aborigines scams, vaccines which are not vaccines, etc.
There is no problem with tax fraud, there is a problem with government spendings entitlement and ability to convince sheep people that current level of taxes are required/ acceptable...whereas income taxes are hardly 100y old:
wwI if I remember

Billions could be saved if the dole bludgers were made to work, as there is plenty available but the Andy Capp syndrome is alive and well I'm afraid.