Inflation

[farmerge]

and deemed if a pensioner

Not a pensioner just yet, but getting closer.

 

[farmerge]

Recent housing price changes, in various countries. Aust not that bad!

Big difference with real and nominal change, in high inflation nations.

Inflation, everywhere , is a monetary phenomenon - Milton Friedman

Mapped: The Growth in House Prices by Country

Global house prices were resilient in 2022, rising 6%. We compare nominal and real price growth by country as interest rates surged.

advisor.visualcapitalist.com

Interesting to note that on the TV channel here in Perth, we mostly watch they give the number of properties up for sale each week, houses and units, and the number sold. Getting less in the past few weeks.. Maybe pushing up prices??

 

[over9k]

Mining money drying up.

 

[over9k]

Yep, markets/growth plays still well into the green. Carefactor nil. Toot toot.

 

[over9k]

"China's demand rebound has been disappointing"

Yeah, their demand rebound for basically everything has been and isn't going to get better. China is done.

 

[mullokintyre]

The CBA have said that consumer spending redbounded somewhat in May.
ABC News

Consumer spending has partially rebounded in May after the Easter holidays, but the Commonwealth Bank says higher interest rates will weigh on households.

The Australian market has dropped, even though the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have rallied to the highest level since April last year as investors await the latest US inflation figures and the Federal Reserve's meeting this week.

Don't know why the latest round of interest rates will weigh on households , are they saying all the previous ones didn't?

Business confidence continues to fall however.

 

[waterbottle]

The CBA have said that consumer spending redbounded somewhat in May.
ABC News

Don't know why the latest round of interest rates will weigh on households , are they saying all the previous ones didn't?

Business confidence continues to fall however.
View attachment 158094

The fall in new orders is consistent with what is also being seen in the US & EU (based on manufacturing PMIs), as well as the fall in China exports.

 

[over9k]

Alright U.S numbers are in and they're right in line with estimates, futures have all bounced on the news, fixed income is down, 5.4 vs 5.3 core year on year estimated, core up 0.4 month on month, whole index up 0.1 month on month, nearly 8 points of move up in the 2-10 spread, growth plays are all mooning.

SOXL still on an absolute tear.

 

[waterbottle]

Alright U.S numbers are in and they're right in line with estimates, futures have all bounced on the news, fixed income is down, 5.4 vs 5.3 core year on year estimated, core up 0.4 month on month, whole index up 0.1 month on month, nearly 8 points of move up in the 2-10 spread, growth plays are all mooning.

SOXL still on an absolute tear.

 

[waterbottle]

New Zealand's economy likely in recession as rate hikes take hold

The New Zealand central bank’s aggressive hiking of the cash rate likely pushed the country into a technical recession in the first quarter, a Reuters poll found, giving traction to the idea the cash rate may have peaked.

www.reuters.com

 

[Knobby22]

Alright U.S numbers are in and they're right in line with estimates, futures have all bounced on the news, fixed income is down, 5.4 vs 5.3 core year on year estimated, core up 0.4 month on month, whole index up 0.1 month on month, nearly 8 points of move up in the 2-10 spread, growth plays are all mooning.

SOXL still on an absolute tear.

4%
Lowest since 2021.
BBC says gasoline prices dropping 20% has a lot to do with it. Fitch head economist says don't be fooled. Inflation still high.

US inflation at lowest since 2021 as fuel prices fall

Falling prices for eggs, petrol and furniture helped to cut inflation in the US to 4% in May.

www.google.com.au

 

[Joe Blow]

To everyone who was discussing electricity price increases and solar: I have moved those posts to another thread as the discussion was taking on a life of its own and was sending this thread off topic. It is clearly inflation related, but deserves to be a separate discussion. Thanks for your understanding.

 

[waterbottle]

4%
Lowest since 2021.
BBC says gasoline prices dropping 20% has a lot to do with it. Fitch head economist says don't be fooled. Inflation still high.

US inflation at lowest since 2021 as fuel prices fall

Falling prices for eggs, petrol and furniture helped to cut inflation in the US to 4% in May.

www.google.com.au

Well considering the Fed prefers PCE and Core CPI (which is still at 0.4% MoM or 5.3% YoY), yes inflation is still high.

I think the Fed would also be cognizant of the fact that releasing their foot off the accelerator at this moment (ala Phil Lowe Apr 2023), may cause a rebound in headline inflation.

Anyhow, lets wait and see what they say

 

[moXJO]

@over9k
You got any "double your money" plays at the moment?

 

[sptrawler]

Well from a Govt friendly media, an interesting article on a recent poll, which I tend to take with a grain of salt.
But it can sometimes point toward a narrative.

RBA boss should lose job after interest rate hikes, but Australians expect more to come: survey

The nation’s economic slowdown has slashed voter confidence in their personal fortunes amid an escalating political row over who is to blame for high inflation.

www.smh.com.au

From the article:
Australians are bracing for another interest rate hike and are holding the federal government responsible for the hit to their households, while 52 per cent believe Reserve Bank governor Phil Lowe should lose his job.

The nation’s economic slowdown has slashed voter confidence in their personal fortunes, with 64 per cent expecting their wages to fall in real terms, amid an escalating political row over who is to blame for high inflation.

An exclusive survey shows that 33 per cent of voters believe the Reserve Bank has the greatest responsibility for keeping inflation down, but that 44 per cent think it is primarily the task of the federal government.

 

[frugal.rock]

 

[frugal.rock]

 

[over9k]

@over9k
You got any "double your money" plays at the moment?

SOXL and BOIL but I'm doubting how much SOXL has left in it by the day.

This whole "recession means rate dumps means growth plays pump" rally has been absolutely ridiculous tbh.

 

[frugal.rock]

I'd agree, soxl topping out.
Boil looks like a 10 bagger in 2 years, 100 bagger in 10 years ?

 

[over9k]

I'd agree, soxl topping out.
Boil looks like a 10 bagger in 2 years, 100 bagger in 10 years ?

Winter. The wildcard is winter. That's what you're betting on.

It's a total degen play but the risk:reward is a hell of a lot more favourable than soxl.