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to a major extent that is to pay down debt , because a lot of it is denoted in US Dollars ( including a slab of Aussie Bank debt )last night the Fed fessed up and admitted that inflation is " slightly worse " than expected, though still transitory.
So now they expect a rate rise in March.
From Kitco News
So the markets response was to drop everything and run to the USD.
A fiat currency that has been severely devalued by QE and inflation.
Makes so much sense.
Mick
i can't tell you any more in the 2 + 2 = 5 world maybe you will when when the total is 6 ( 2 +1+ 1 tax )On inflation
"
COVID-19 stimulus fuels US growth
Fourth-quarter GDP in the US showed growth of 6.9 per cent, which was mostly attributed to businesses replenishing stock to meet strong demand for goods.
Annually the US economy grew 5.7 per cent, which is the strongest lift since 1984. It followed the government providing nearly $US6 trillion in pandemic relief."
Full article there.https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-28/markets-wall-street-dow-jones-asx/100787008
Sure ,this is their ABC so can not expect much but if inflation is at 7% annually and gdp growth at 5.7%, does not this mean a going backward move?
My business sells $100 last year, i sell $107 this year but my costs raised $7..
Did my business grow?
Thanks for the feds all over the world, any extra tax is part of GDPi can't tell you any more in the 2 + 2 = 5 world maybe you will when when the total is 6 ( 2 +1+ 1 tax )
He's also calling for a 50 basis point rise at the next meeting. He did something similiar with the first lockdowns and credit spreads. He basically bets on the powers that be making realisations or actions too late and thus having to overreact (ounce of prevention vs pound of cure and all of that).BTC already down 50% from all time highs.
Meanwhile, jaw-boning from the Fed has seen a 15% drop from ATHs on the NASDAQ....
Then there's this guy - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/26/bil...nt-sell-off-becomes-a-top-20-shareholder.html - who drops a cool $1 billion on NFLX. Same guy who bought the dip in march 2020....
cynic ( that does NOT mean i disagree , but absolutely not betting against you )He's also calling for a 50 basis point rise at the next meeting. He did something similiar with the first lockdowns and credit spreads. He basically bets on the powers that be making realisations or actions too late and thus having to overreact (ounce of prevention vs pound of cure and all of that).
Dude's smart.
I'd be willing to bet a very significant sum of money he has some kind of position betting on a 50 basis point rise.
ducati916
The issue was whether 'productivity' could ameliorate the effects of inflation.
The numbers clearly indicate that TSLA currently cannot.
Absolutely, I was down the corner shop a Vietnamese guy runs it, he turns up 4.30 a.m to make sausage rolls and pies, that he doesn't run through the till.Can a company that significantly improves its productivity reduce the effects of inflation? Of course it can, and in an industry of similarity it will thrive while others struggle.
So what will that do to the price of Bonds, and how much more evidence does he want before raising rates?The Reserve Bank at its first board meeting of the year has held rates steady at 0.1 per cent and declared an end to its $350bn bond-buying stimulus program.
In a statement accompanying the widely anticipated decisions, RBA governor Philip Lowe said underlying inflation was now expected to climb from 2.6 per cent to 3.25 per cent “in coming quarters”.
Despite the materially upgraded inflation outlook – the central bank in November forecast core inflation would only be 2.25 per cent by the end of the year – Dr Lowe gave no firm sign of a rate hike in the second half of this year, instead reiterating that the RBA board “prepared to be patient as it monitors how the various factors affecting inflation in Australia evolve”.
From Todays OZ
So what will that do to the price of Bonds
Great, seeing as you track their pricing closely, perhaps you could explain this small anomaly.As usual, exactly the opposite of what everyone (even the RBA) says QE/bond buying does.
Bonds fell quite a lot since the start of QE (which is according to the RBA supposed to increase bond prices/decrease yields).
Immediately after the news that RBA was ending QE, bond prices shot up (yields fell).
(speaking as someone who holds 25% of their net worth in long duration Government bonds and tracks their pricing closely across the yield curve)
So when I look the yield on 10 year bonds over the past year, according to Trading economicsIt wants the whole structure of interest rates in Australia to be lower, to make it cheaper for governments, businesses and households to borrow and invest, and to keep the value of Australia's dollar down, to support economic growth.
It plans to do that by buying $100 billion of government bonds over the next six months.
Specifically, it will focus on buying government bonds with maturities of around "five to 10 years," but it may also buy bonds outside that time range, depending on market conditions.
But those rising costs are inflation, a business will do just fine if there were no inflation and there fire all their costs stayed the same.What I was meaning by the statement was, a lot of the inputs into a business can't be controlled they are regulatory or influenced by outside forces e.g rates, rents, electricity, insurance, shipping costs, port handling charges, increased price of the product from the source.
I would assume those costs continually rise ( I know my rates, rego's, insurance etc have), a point must be reached where those costs erode a businesses margins to the point they either have to pass on those costs or go broke.
If a business buys in a product to sell and can't sell it for enough profit to cover their outgoings they will go broke eventually, so in reality the price of that product must go up as a function of increased costs, or the system fails.
Well that's my working out, the capitalist system we in Australia work in, whereby the private sector provide the countries trade and industries and the Govt provides services, unless the private sector can make money the system fails.
Which is why the Govt had to pour so much money into jobkeeper, otherwise there wouldn't be any goods available, when shoppers came out to shop, because the businesses wouldn't have been able to pay their suppliers and it would have imploded.
So really unless you can stop the price of statutory costs, energy costs, insurance costs etc rising, inflation is a naturally occurring event in the capitalist system.
I we had a socialist system, where the Govt owned everything, that's different. The Govt can just regulate the prices and take the loss into consolidated revenue, but that ends up with a dilemma when the taxes have to be so high to cover the loses, there is no point in striving to get ahead because you taxes become too onerous.
Just my thoughts.
What it means is that bond prices will start to drop, and so the actual interest rates on those bonds will rise.From Todays OZ
So what will that do to the price of Bonds, and how much more evidence does he want before raising rates?
Maybe he has a house to sell.
I am glad that the rates talk is on the back burner again, as I am trying to sell a house in Darwin, and one of my kids trying to sell a house in Melbourne.
Mick
Great, seeing as you track their pricing closely, perhaps you could explain this small anomaly.
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