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Inflation

to a major extent that is to pay down debt , because a lot of it is denoted in US Dollars ( including a slab of Aussie Bank debt )

yes it makes sense IF you have a large amount of debt , not so much sense if you are low debt ( or debt in the local currency ) and have no intention of buying US assets or US stocks

HOWEVER it MIGHT signal a genuine crash or credit crunch coming ( because similar happened in the GFC and some big crashes before that )

now what i haven't seen ( evidence of ) so far ,is a rush into US Treasury Bonds ( by investors large and small ) ( which looks equally nuts to me at current rates )
 
On inflation
"

COVID-19 stimulus fuels US growth​

Fourth-quarter GDP in the US showed growth of 6.9 per cent, which was mostly attributed to businesses replenishing stock to meet strong demand for goods.

Annually the US economy grew 5.7 per cent, which is the strongest lift since 1984. It followed the government providing nearly $US6 trillion in pandemic relief."
Full article there.https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-28/markets-wall-street-dow-jones-asx/100787008

Sure ,this is their ABC so can not expect much but if inflation is at 7% annually and gdp growth at 5.7%, does not this mean a going backward move?
My business sells $100 last year, i sell $107 this year but my costs raised $7..
Did my business grow?
 
i can't tell you any more in the 2 + 2 = 5 world maybe you will when when the total is 6 ( 2 +1+ 1 tax )
 
yes i HAD noticed that , that is why i do more 'eyeball surveys ' and use that as an important indicator
 
He's also calling for a 50 basis point rise at the next meeting. He did something similiar with the first lockdowns and credit spreads. He basically bets on the powers that be making realisations or actions too late and thus having to overreact (ounce of prevention vs pound of cure and all of that).

Dude's smart.


I'd be willing to bet a very significant sum of money he has some kind of position betting on a 50 basis point rise.
 
cynic ( that does NOT mean i disagree , but absolutely not betting against you )
 
Can a company that significantly improves its productivity reduce the effects of inflation? Of course it can, and in an industry of similarity it will thrive while others struggle.

ducati916

The issue was whether 'productivity' could ameliorate the effects of inflation.

The numbers clearly indicate that TSLA currently cannot.

Last year, Tesla’s Fremont Factory averaged a weekly production pace of 8,550 vehicles. That’s about 1,221 cars per day, 51 cars per hour, or about .85 cars per minute. However you break it down, the Fremont Factory’s manufacturing prowess showed its domination in 2021, as it was the most productive automotive factory in the United States in 2021, outpacing Toyota, BMW, and Ford factories that have long created the most robust figures of car production in previous decades.

While Tesla has only one operational U.S. plant as Gigafactory Texas nears production soon, its North American customer base has been accepting cars from the Northern California plant. However, this one plant has managed to avoid heavy delivery delays due to bottlenecks in the supply chain and parts shortages and become the most proactive American automotive manufacturing facility in 2021.

Most impressively, Tesla has continued to expand its yearly production capacity as a company. Last year, it was mostly due to Gigafactory Shanghai’s massive production figures, which accounted for a majority of vehicle deliveries as it is Tesla’s main export hub to the extremely competitive European market. Tesla managed 936,172 deliveries in 2021, a 47 percent increase from a year prior.
More here - Tesla discussion


 
Can a company that significantly improves its productivity reduce the effects of inflation? Of course it can, and in an industry of similarity it will thrive while others struggle.
Absolutely, I was down the corner shop a Vietnamese guy runs it, he turns up 4.30 a.m to make sausage rolls and pies, that he doesn't run through the till.
When his wife comes in after taking the kids to school, he goes to the industrial area to buy his fruit and veggies that he sells in the shop, lovely bloke I was chatting with him the other day he says everything is going up.
He closes the shop at 9.00p.m, I told him his productivity will improve when his kids grow up and help out, his eyes rolled back in his head. ?
 
From Todays OZ
So what will that do to the price of Bonds, and how much more evidence does he want before raising rates?
Maybe he has a house to sell.
I am glad that the rates talk is on the back burner again, as I am trying to sell a house in Darwin, and one of my kids trying to sell a house in Melbourne.
Mick
 
From Todays OZ

So what will that do to the price of Bonds

As usual, exactly the opposite of what everyone (even the RBA) says QE/bond buying does.

Bonds fell quite a lot since the start of QE (which is according to the RBA supposed to increase bond prices/decrease yields).

Immediately after the news that RBA was ending QE, bond prices shot up (yields fell).

(speaking as someone who holds 25% of their net worth in long duration Government bonds and tracks their pricing closely across the yield curve)
 
Great, seeing as you track their pricing closely, perhaps you could explain this small anomaly.
When the announcement came out that the RBAb was going into QE according to ABC News
So when I look the yield on 10 year bonds over the past year, according to Trading economics
The RBA announcement was either on or just prior to November 4th 2020.
If you look at the chart, it seems that the yield did indeed go up.

Mick
 
But those rising costs are inflation, a business will do just fine if there were no inflation and there fire all their costs stayed the same.

But of course if your costs are rising due to inflation, then you will need to inflate your own prices to maintain your profitability.

A worse scenario though is the deflation of the currency, eg prices dropping while there is also less cash circulating, and those with cash won’t spend or invest because they believe in a few months prices will be even lower.
 
What it means is that bond prices will start to drop, and so the actual interest rates on those bonds will rise.

There are two ways to raise interest rates, 1st way is to change the actual interest rate written on the bond, the 2nd way is to change the price the bond sells for.

For example, the government can offer a 10 year $1000 bond with a 10% interest rate (coupon rate), on it but if the market only wants to pay the government $500 for it, then the actual interest rate is much higher than the 10% written on the bond.

So if the RBA stops buying bonds, there will be down ward pressure on bond prices, which means actual interest rates earned on the bonds will rise, even though they are not changing the states interest rate.

Think of it like them taking their foot off the accelerator, but not quite stepping on the brake yet.
 
Great, seeing as you track their pricing closely, perhaps you could explain this small anomaly.

The explanation is both simply and extremely complicated.

Simply put, Central Banks and modern "Economists" do not understand the economy or how the monetary system functions at all.

If you want to dive further I suggest https://www.macrovoices.com/aia/321...eaturing-alhambra-partners-cio-jeffrey-snider and https://alhambrapartners.com/commentaryanalysis/ and all the Making Sense episodes at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCp8Xi-sPTL9VyZpHTPfLA-g/videos
 
Well, I was hoping for the simple part, as the data points I put up were quite simple, and showed that post announcement of QE, the yields gave a damn good impression of going up, which is the opposite of what you posted (without any supporting data I might add ).
Mick
 
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