Inflation

[frugal.rock]

Orange juice getting squeeeezed up.
It's the talk of the town...

 

[over9k]

NRGU is up 10% just premarket

 

[frugal.rock]

Make that 11%
Curse you daylight savings

 

[over9k]

If we actually sell the news, the sell day will be on the 5th when opec confirm the production cut. Right now/tonight is the "buy the rumour" bit everyone else are doing and we already bought last week

 

[qldfrog]

Orange juice getting squeeeezed up.
It's the talk of the town...

View attachment 147628

You are definitely trading exotic markets FR
With winter coming i thought OJ would be down ?

 

[waterbottle]

The UK government bends

UK scraps tax cut for wealthy that sparked market turmoil

BIRMINGHAM, England (AP) — The U.K. government on Monday dropped plans to cut income tax for top earners, part of a package of unfunded cuts unveiled only days ago that sparked turmoil on financial markets and sent the pound to record lows.

apnews.com

 

[waterbottle]

And it looks like nordstream is back...

The Nord Stream pipelines have stopped leaking, the Danish Energy Agency says. (Published 2022)

Both European and Russian leaders have said that ruptures discovered undersea were an act of sabotage.

www.nytimes.com

 

[qldfrog]

And it looks like nordstream is back...

The Nord Stream pipelines have stopped leaking, the Danish Energy Agency says. (Published 2022)

Both European and Russian leaders have said that ruptures discovered undersea were an act of sabotage.

www.nytimes.com

Are you kidding? Not sure
The cracked open pipe is now emptied of the gas it was filled with .
Will probably never be useable used..ever
5000 tankers minimum to do round trip with US Qatar or Australia to replace this.And gas terminals too.
Germany and so europe is done and dusted.
Thank you USA.
We might get cheaper Mercs and BMWs, Audis und sauerkraut ?

 

[divs4ever]

Opec looking like cutting 1m barrels/day, oil up $3 in response.

many OPEC members were pushing out ( near ) maximum production so should be no surprise , maxxed out plant , breaks sooner , a slight reduction now beats a big disruption further down the line IMO

there are solutions but then the US would have to relax the suppression of oil trade elsewhere ( after all they brought chaos to several of them )

 

[divs4ever]

And it looks like nordstream is back...

The Nord Stream pipelines have stopped leaking, the Danish Energy Agency says. (Published 2022)

Both European and Russian leaders have said that ruptures discovered undersea were an act of sabotage.

www.nytimes.com

would Russia actually bother repairing it , the EU are reluctant to pay , seizing assets , looking to wean off Russian Energy AND obviously unable to protect the pipeline against hostile parties

however it might be a useful troll of EU energy policy ( remember the turbine repair delays NS 1 MIGHT have been back to 50% with enough working turbines )

 

[divs4ever]

Are you kidding? Not sure
The cracked open pipe is now emptied of the gas it was filled with .
Will probably never be useable used..ever
5000 tankers minimum to do round trip with US Qatar or Australia to replace this.And gas terminals too.
Germany and so europe is done and dusted.
Thank you USA.
We might get cheaper Mercs and BMWs, Audis und sauerkraut ?

but only ones made in 2021 and earlier ( or assembled in India )

 

[waterbottle]

Are you kidding? Not sure
The cracked open pipe is now emptied of the gas it was filled with .
Will probably never be useable used..ever
5000 tankers minimum to do round trip with US Qatar or Australia to replace this.And gas terminals too.
Germany and so europe is done and dusted.
Thank you USA.
We might get cheaper Mercs and BMWs, Audis und sauerkraut ?

Here's another saying leaks have stopped....

Redirect Notice

 

[qldfrog]

Here's another saying leaks have stopped....

Redirect Notice

the leaks have not stopped, the gas is not escaping anymore,
a bit like saying your tire is not pierced anymore since it is now flat and has no air escaping anymore
->because there is no gas anymore;
there has been no gas pushed in these for weeks, i was just the leftover in the pipes which bubbled out..now over..the pipes remain cracked open and destroyed

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Are you kidding? Not sure
The cracked open pipe is now emptied of the gas it was filled with .
Will probably never be useable used..ever
5000 tankers minimum to do round trip with US Qatar or Australia to replace this.And gas terminals too.
Germany and so europe is done and dusted.
Thank you USA.
We might get cheaper Mercs and BMWs, Audis und sauerkraut ?

Posts like this make me desperately want to go and buy German/EU stocks.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Great chart from @LizAnnSonders (Chief Investment Strategist for Schwab) on Twitter

US inflation YoY comparisons are now crazy hard. Even +0.2% MoM every month is going to have CPI at 2% by mid '23. Anything less than that could be staring down a deflationary barrel.



Inflation swaps etc are pricing this in already.

Fed needs to back way off right now.

 

[Smurf1976]

many OPEC members were pushing out ( near ) maximum production so should be no surprise , maxxed out plant , breaks sooner , a slight reduction now beats a big disruption further down the line IMO

I'm not personally making the claim but some would go a step further and question whether OPEC was ever really able to sustain it in the first place?

That is, has some present "production" really just been withdrawal from storage? If so then it has to end at some point.

 

[over9k]

Great chart from @LizAnnSonders (Chief Investment Strategist for Schwab) on Twitter

US inflation YoY comparisons are now crazy hard. Even +0.2% MoM every month is going to have CPI at 2% by mid '23. Anything less than that could be staring down a deflationary barrel.

View attachment 147675

Inflation swaps etc are pricing this in already.

Fed needs to back way off right now.

RBA just did exactly that with 25 points rather than 50 and markets were NOT happy.

AUS isn't USA though, USD running is helping the yanks enormously. Fixed income's still priced something like 62 points, then 48, then 22 at the next 3 fed meetings.

Also worth thinking about how much monetary policy has NOT been coordinated with fiscal policy lately (I'm looking at you, united kingdom) and there's still things like strategic oil reserves to either continue emptying and/or then fill back up and so on. Not to mention how much of the U.S energy supply the europeans are trying to build the infrastructure to get right as we speak. That transfer of demand is going to effect domestic U.S prices significantly once the facilities to receive it actually come online.

Not saying you're wrong but there's a fair few more balls in the air other than rates at the moment.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

RBA just did exactly that with 25 points rather than 50 and markets were NOT happy.

?

markets sure seemed happy about it to me

Not saying you're wrong but there's a fair few more balls in the air other than rates at the moment.

I'm not really sure what you mean.

Mechanically, CPI is going to go down without something truly crazy happening to push monthly prints consistently into the 0.3-0.5% range. That's just a fact of how YoY comps work, look at the chart.

If something truly crazy happens, like oil gapping to $200-300, is raising rates really going to be the right reaction? They will be knifing the economy into a crisis. I just don't see it.

 

[mullokintyre]

Are you kidding? Not sure
The cracked open pipe is now emptied of the gas it was filled with .
Will probably never be useable used..ever
5000 tankers minimum to do round trip with US Qatar or Australia to replace this.And gas terminals too.
Germany and so europe is done and dusted.
Thank you USA.
We might get cheaper Mercs and BMWs, Audis und sauerkraut ?

The Nordstream 2 pipe was filled with gas to keep it pressurised, but it was not flowing anywhere. ( see Reuters )
The Russians had already turned off supplies flowing via Nordstream 1 ( see BBC News. )
To make matters a little more difficult, the charter rates for bulk LNG ships has gone ballsistic.
From Zero hedge

Spot charter rates for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers are soaring due to a shortage of vessels.

LNG shipping rates have been dramatically impacted by energy supply chain disruption due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The LNG shipping sector is booming even more as rates near record highs following the bombing of the Nord Stream pipeline system last week.

Bloomberg said Europe is "to replace Russian pipeline flows with liquefied natural gas from suppliers including in the US and Nigeria." Rejiggering supply chains for the energy-stricken continent means increasing demand for LNG carriers to source gas further away.
Shell booked an LNG carrier for $400k per day, likely the most expensive ever for the Atlantic basin. The Indian firm GAIL also secured an LNG shipment for about $360k per day. Bloomberg explains more:

• Shell Plc booked the Yiannis to load a US cargo at the end of October for delivery to Europe at a rate equivalent to $400,000 per day on a round-trip basis, said traders. The deal is likely the most expensive ever for the Atlantic basin, according to traders and brokers.
• GAIL India Ltd. also booked the LNG Schneeweisschen to load a cargo in early November from the US at about $360,000 per day, said traders. The company, which recently sold an LNG shipment from its Cove Point export facility, chartered the vessel from a European utility company, they said.

So if I were a buyer of LNG, I would be looking for the supplier that is closest to me geographicslly, espeislly if every day I charter costs me 400k.
Mick

 

[over9k]

?

markets sure seemed happy about it to me
View attachment 147678



I'm not really sure what you mean.

Mechanically, CPI is going to go down without something truly crazy happening to push monthly prints consistently into the 0.3-0.5% range. That's just a fact of how YoY comps work, look at the chart.

If something truly crazy happens, like oil gapping to $200-300, is raising rates really going to be the right reaction? They will be knifing the economy into a crisis. I just don't see it.

Look at how the aud has moved. But were you specifically talking year on year?

Reference tipping into recession or what have you, Yellen & Powell have both made endless comments about doing "whatever it takes" to get things back to 2%. But I was talking a longer timeline than just year on year, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them get below the 2% target and then say something along the lines of keeping it a bit "too low" to get things back closer to long term trend.

But what I was getting at is that we still have the pivot of european energy demand over to U.S suppliers yet to occur (facilities not finished), china lockdowns pummeling demand there, and the U.S strategic reserve being depleted. Any one of these three factors is a pretty major player in inflation and all three ARE going to reverse at one point or another. Whether this will be soon enough to effect YoY numbers remains to be seen but all three WILL occur.

So yeah, there's three pretty big factors other than just the U.S demand side to consider here, and I haven't even mentioned seasonality...