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probably NEVER , the EU are stealing assets and complaining about paying , Russia has no incentive to repair them , there are willing/paying customers to the east and south eastLet's see what the response is from the RBA next week with AUD falling and BoE talking up a surprise hike.
How long until the nordstream pipeline is fixed?
In my view never.How long until the nordstream pipeline is fixed?
So has anyone else been playing BOIL or am I the only one?
In my view never.
There's long (decades) been an expectation by many that Russia and the Middle Eastern countries would in due course pivot away from oil / gas exports to the West and would instead first prioritise their own (increasing) internal needs and secondly do deals with the likes of China.
We're now at that point I think.
The 16.5 billion cubic metres of gas exported by Russia to China last year is less than 10% of the 170 billion cubic metres of natural gas sent by Russia to the Europmean market.
Since less than 10 percent of Russia’s gas capacity is liquefied natural gas, so Russian gas exports remain reliant on a system of fixed pipelines carrying piped gas. The vast majority of Russia’s pipelines flow toward Europe; those pipelines, which originate in western Russia, are not connectable to a separate nascent network of pipelines that link Eastern Siberia to Asia, which contains only 10 percent of the capacity of the European pipeline network.
Also, the Asian pipeline projects currently under construction are still years away from becoming operational, and financing of these costly gas pipeline projects also now puts Russia at a significant disadvantage.
Agreed.What energy exporters want to do (now) and what they can do (now) are very different things.
Correct. They're currently running oil/gas in on rail and it's nowhere near enough. They're boned.I can't remember where I read it or heard it but it doesn't sound like there is even remotely close to enough pipeline capacity for Russia to export to China what it was to the EU for at least 5-10 years it takes to build those pipes.
Power of Siberia 2 will connect Siberian fields that supply Europe — which has pledged to end its dependence on Russia’s state-backed Gazprom — to China, where demand for gas is rising.
Alexei Miller, Gazprom chief, has suggested China will become its cornerstone customer in the future.
Building infrastructure China way is not following the same timeline than in the West. China self interest is to make sure Russia holds,but does not benefit too much .Correct. They're currently running oil/gas in on rail and it's nowhere near enough. They're boned.
Yeah we're entering a bifurcated world in this way. It's kind of like the cold war all over again except over energy. The one big difference is that things like international trade, oil pipelines etc can't just be resecured and/or built quickly.In regard to the discussion about gas:
Mongolia says Russia-China gas pipeline will break ground in 2024
Prime minister Luvsannamsrai tells FT that Rio Tinto’s Gobi Desert copper mine is on trackwww.ft.com
The key being the bit about connecting gas fields which traditionally supplied Europe.
Whilst this is an assumption on my part without proof, I expect that gas and other things (notably oil and coal) supplied to China from Russia will have two fundamental characteristics which differentiate it from the traditional approach.
The currency used will be whatever the two agree on but realistically it'll be Russian or Chinese, it sure won't be any Western currency.
It will not be for sale to others at any price unless the buyer, China, deems it surplus to requirements and chooses to sell in which case it'll likely be offered to "friendly" countries first. In this case see point above regarding acceptable currencies.
The real game here as I see it is a geostrategic and financial one, it's not simply an energy supply arrangement. It's about taking resources off the market, locking them up under long term deals, and removing Western currencies from the equation entirely. That's my interpretation of it at least.
Speculation that BOE intervention will (especially if it works) trigger similiar actions from other central banks. We'll see.10 yr bonds pulling back. Bear rally?
It certainly has the aroma of intervention.Speculation that BOE intervention will (especially if it works) trigger similiar actions from other central banks. We'll see.
"Unlimited" buying.It certainly has the aroma of intervention.
The US Dollar can typically be used as a decent gauge of global sentiment, so it wasn't surprising to see the overnight rally on Wall Street coincide with a pullback in DXY.10 yr bonds pulling back. Bear rally?
I still think a Fiat currency is better than a Lada oneIn regard to the discussion about gas.
Whilst this is an assumption on my part without proof, I expect that gas and other things (notably oil and coal) supplied to China from Russia will have two fundamental characteristics which differentiate it from the traditional approach.
The currency used will be whatever the two agree on but realistically it'll be Russian or Chinese, it sure won't be any Western currency.
It will not be for sale to others at any price unless the buyer, China, deems it surplus to requirements and chooses to sell in which case it'll likely be offered to "friendly" countries first. In this case see point above regarding acceptable currencies.
The real game here as I see it is a geostrategic and financial one, it's not simply an energy supply arrangement. It's about taking resources off the market, locking them up under long term deals, and removing Western currencies from the equation entirely.
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