Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Inflation erosion?

Your in a very fortunate position. You say as a foreign investor you only pay 10% on your australian earnings, we pay our marginal tax rate(between 35%-45%) depending on our total income.

That puts you at a huge advantage to us.

Then you rightly state that Japan is in a deflationary environment. Australia is still inflationary(although lower than last few years).

Again huge advantage to you.

With those 2 factors alone, i would say a term deposit could earn enough for you to actually grow your money. Not saying that shares or property arent the better option, but bank deposit in you circumstances is adequate.

Example: $100k, 1year term deposit earning 4%.

Japan:
100k*(1+(0.04*[1-.1]), assumes .1 or 10% tax rate

cash on hand after 1 year $103,600 after tax. assume negligible fees and currency conversion to Japan.
take deflation of 1% into account and its like you earnt a further 1% interst, so in 1years time you would have the equivalent of $104,636 in todays purchasing power.

Now consider Australian taxpayer living in australia
100k*(1+(0.04*[1-.45]), assumes marginal tax rate of .45 or 45%

cash on hand after 1 year $102,200 after tax. assume negligible fees.
take inflation to be 3%(ballpark figure) and its like being charged a fee of 3% on your total amount. so your left with $102,200*0.97 or $99,134 in todays purchasing power. effectively your money after 1year of investing is worth less than when u started.

in that example the australian lost nearly 1% in 1year. not a lot but would be significant if compounded over 30year retirement 1.01^30 =1.35 (ie you lost 35% of purchasing power over 30years).

things for an australian to consider are housing has outperformed inflation, and many things are excluded from inflation calculations meaning your buying power in terms of realestate and other things may be substantially less.

also when people talk about inflation eroding ones nett worth the calculation are general comparing someone that had there money in an ordinary bank account earning 0% interest(or under there bed). in your example you are earning an amount that offsets inflation somewhat.
 
Strongly agree with Kincella - the rate of inflation is significantly higher than stated. Many important figures are not accurate
Basically the point I was trying to make with the few examples I posted.

Hot chips from the local shop are pretty basic with no change in technology or unusual costs. And for my example it's the exact same shop, with the same man still doing the cooking and quite likely he's still using the same deep fryer. No radical change here, the chips still come wrapped in a big sheet of paper. 5.1% annual inflation in hot chips since 1985 when the store opened.

The bus fare to school in 1983 was 20 cents.

Lunch from the canteen was around 40 cents.

You could then go back to the canteen with a few 1 and 2 cent coins and get some lollies.

Only rich people stayed in hotel rooms costing $100 per night.

Things made in China might have become cheaper, but just about everything esle is up a lot more than 2% per annum in my experience.
 
Goodo, thanks peoples, those last few posts (Kin, MrJ, Nathan & Smurf) have helped me wrap my head around it, for the most part, I think.

I particularly like this from Mr J:
As far as I know, there are no simple, accurate ways to calculation inflation. Even if we take a look at money supply, we still have to figure out how it is used and its influence.

I guess I have to pray for a good exchange rate at the time I want to bring my money back to Japan hehe.
 
smurf, with the fish and chips shop, the rent, and rates and interest costs would be enormous over time....I admire the man for still being there.....all ours have shut down...cause people did not want to pay the increased charges, but the shop keepers rents went up, land tax sky rocketed etc....

just found one around the corner...its 6.50 for the flake and 4.00 min chips...but hey I am grateful we have such a shop.....lost 3 others closer to me in past 3 years

I bet the cost of fish has increased from the wholesalers,and cost of frozen chips, or fresh potatoes have increased......from about 25c a kg to lately 4.00

When I was out in Ringwood one day ....looking for my new puppy...I almost could not believe it...a fish and chip shop.....a Korean owner, chef....stunning food, beautiful and clean....almost empty for a Sunday....
I imagine its not all roses....maybe Fridays fish day for some...hard way to earn money....competing against maccas, and all the new fancy food stuff that people buy for lunch etc....
I like old fashioned food, and fish and chips is one of them, then maybe a real hamburger from the same shop, real mince or steak...very different from Macca's plastic type stuff
I was paying about 3.00 for the same meal in the mid 1980's....my income has increased a stack....so 10.00 seems fine for today...
 
very different from Macca's plastic type stuff

Don't get me started on the plastic that they serve. Can't beat a good home-cooked (or from a good independent take-away shop) burger. They're actually not bad for you either! I think it has more to do with time than people actually liking that crap. Most of us work long hours and feel like we don't have the time or just can't be bothered to make a proper meal. It has also been a while since we last ate, so we go for easy and fatty food.

I was paying about 3.00 for the same meal in the mid 1980's....my income has increased a stack....so 10.00 seems fine for today...

That would be about 5%+ compounded. I've noticed a significant rise this decade, but that's to be expected during an easy credit boom.
 
That would be about 5%+ compounded. I've noticed a significant rise this decade, but that's to be expected during an easy credit boom.
There's that 5% figure again. Quite a few examples here all pointing to long term inflation being a bit over 5% per annum since the 1980's and that figure does seem more accurate to me than the 2 - 3% we're told by government.

Another one, wages. I've worked for the same employer since 1995 and that same entry level job there (which I no longer have) has increased at an average rate of 6% per annum over that time.
 
That 5% savings or 10% stock return suddenly doesn't look so hot, does it? The 10% stock market return is even more horrible when one considers that the stock market apparently has not returned 10% (I read 8% for the Dow) and then considers how much the value will fluctuate due to booms and busts. That's a lot of variance for an extra 3-5%, and then tax must be paid!
 
For inflation, try stamps from Australia post aka PMG.

In 1966 the first decimal 'Queens heads' were 4c. Basic stamp today 55c. That is cost increase of 6.25%pa over 43 years.

brty
 
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