Improving Chart Analysis

[RichKid]

Gannies

Gann day is the 22 September [official day], which is also the autumnal equinox, which is also the Jewish New Year.

Statistically, the markets have reversed on this day, more than any other in history.

jog on
d998

I have to say I'm more comfortable with the second sentence than the first one and I like what Frank says about his preference for statistical analysis and measures of certain outcomes. Being able to quantify the probability of particular outcomes really helps imo as you have to intergrate it with the money and risk mgmt side of the business; as opposed to resorting to more esoteric explanations- perhaps pivotal events/festivals and familiar names make more of an impression on the mind than a set of stats? Such things are possibly, for that reason, easier to impose upon the human mind and consequently find ready acceptance amongst those unfamiliar with statistical thought (or those more inclined to incorporate emotion and familiar human experience in their decision making).

btw, are there any outstanding sources or sites you rely on Duc to get specific figures for these pivotal dates and periods? (we have similar figures elsewhere on ASF about X'mas rallies, worst/best months on the ASX and the like)? Or maybe systems testers should just put Gann dates through the griller...

 

[Frank D]

Snake,

I would probably bore you with the details, but this is continued for the SPI today, and hopefully it starts to makes sense regardless of what trader you are.

The important point of any methodology has to be able to be used by everyone no matter what type of trader you are, and be precise in nature so your Risk levels are clearly defined along with the profit objectives.

What each individual trader does with AMT is up to the individual, and that normal curve fits with the type of trader you are.



www.datafeeds.com.au/AMT19sept2.pdf



Frank Dilernia

AMT model and AMT report is owned by Frank Dilernia, and cannot be reproduced without consent. It is only for educational purpose and not trading advice



© AMT Market Dynamic model Frank Dilernia

© OTD OPEN Trading Dynamics Frank Dilernia
Today 03:22 AM

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Unfortunately for those who don`t yet realise it: charting analysis doesn`t mean much by itself. The expectation to be right taints the ability to think irrespective of the chart.

This is not an attack on your coment above Freeballer. So please don`t come out to get me

My point too Snake, charts don't mean everything especially in the current market, they are one of the tools us TRADERS use though.

Personally I could have sworn a couple of the oilers were going to take a turn a week back and look what happened!, funny market these last few months!

 

[ducati916]

Rich Kid

I have to say I'm more comfortable with the second sentence than the first one and I like what Frank says about his preference for statistical analysis and measures of certain outcomes. Being able to quantify the probability of particular outcomes really helps imo as you have to intergrate it with the money and risk mgmt side of the business; as opposed to resorting to more esoteric explanations- perhaps pivotal events/festivals and familiar names make more of an impression on the mind than a set of stats? Such things are possibly, for that reason, easier to impose upon the human mind and consequently find ready acceptance amongst those unfamiliar with statistical thought (or those more inclined to incorporate emotion and familiar human experience in their decision making).

Statistically must be one of the most over-used, and incorrectly used concepts in the markets. There are few, if any statistical findings.
There are plenty of deterministic studies but these are a far cry from statistical.

btw, are there any outstanding sources or sites you rely on Duc to get specific figures for these pivotal dates and periods? (we have similar figures elsewhere on ASF about X'mas rallies, worst/best months on the ASX and the like)? Or maybe systems testers should just put Gann dates through the griller...

I have some secret sauses [rustled up in the home kitchen]
jog on
d998

 

[lesm]

I have some secret sauses [rustled up in the home kitchen]
jog on
d998

Mushroom sauce goes well with a 'blue' steak :topic

 

[tech/a]

Duc.

You know as well as I do that the study of Statistical information from the markets is meant to eventually develope a Deterministic algorithm,which is ofcourse my end result.

The grouping together of any statistical study can lead to a deterministic result.Not always but normally the objective.

 

[lesm]

Yes, I prefer options so I can put together a limited risk strategy with good reward characteristics. If liquidity or risk are issues I have problems with an instrument. I have a lot of misgivings with CFDs (the risk levels are sometimes 20 times greater depending on the viability of options selections – liquidity and volatility can be problematic though with options).

Magdoran,

Thanks for the additional information.

Using multiple timeframes, as part of the analysis is an approach that I am familiar with.

Still not fully convinced about CFDs myself at the moment. See the potential for using them on the ASX for playing both sides of the market, but when you read the PDSs and look at the underlying cost structure, futures and options still appear a better way to go at the moment. Will wait and see how the product offerings mature, especially as they become more competitive.

Cheers

 

[Magdoran]

Magdoran,

Thanks for the additional information.

Using multiple timeframes, as part of the analysis is an approach that I am familiar with.

Still not fully convinced about CFDs myself at the moment. See the potential for using them on the ASX for playing both sides of the market, but when you read the PDSs and look at the underlying cost structure, futures and options still appear a better way to go at the moment. Will wait and see how the product offerings mature, especially as they become more competitive.

Cheers

Hello Les,


You’re most welcome.

Re CFDs, you may find my reasoning behind the comparison with options an interesting read in the “The idiots way to options riches” thread (post 12).

In answer to your question on psychology, I found the starting and ending sections of Ari Kiev’s “Trading in the Zone” to have some interesting “add ons” from a totally different perspective to Douglas. I thought a lot of it was off the mark in the center sections, but some of it was worthwhile, but you have to carve out the good bits.

Regards


Magdoran

 

[Magdoran]

Pattern Analysis and the dilemma of uncertainty and probability:


Hello Les,

I’ve been thinking about one of your questions regarding the statistical analysis of various patterns and the expected probability from these patterns.

With pattern recognition, I think all of us are making our best shot guess, whether we dress it up with algorithms based on moving averages, or if we use the “computer between our ears”.

I’d argue that analysis is (I suspect necessarily) subjective since it depends on the reasoning process of the individual, their capacity to observe (keenness of senses and mind, experience and access), environmental factors, and the quality and quantity of information available to them, and the time available to process the information and the will to do so productively.

This is a dilemma that I suspect is one of those perennial philosophical conundrums which is to do with the way humanity struggles with understanding the past and trying to second guess the future. (Duc, you’d know about this).

The core question is “to what extent can we predict future events by studying and understanding the past”. It’s partly a history question along the lines of the concept that if we don’t learn from the lessons of the past, we are doomed to make the same mistakes in the future.

If you remember Bronowski’s “The ascent of man” BBC program, I remember the inspirational episodes where he talks about humanity standing on the brink of knowledge feeling forwards. I think trading is like this, we are standing on the brink of price action as it unfolds, feeling forwards.

Douglas talks about not having to know what is going to happen in order to make money if you are employing an edge. The primary problem of comparing different systems is that there is no objective standard to measure them by, only the current performance.

The term “past performance is no indication of future performance” comes to mind. What I’m getting at is that even the most robust predictive system in any field is often thwarted by reality. The rapid fall of France in 1940 seemed impossible until it happened, didn’t it?

So, what’s this all about? When researching past charts of indexes and commodities, there do seem to be patterns which seem to be repeated. The dilemma for me is that I do believe every moment in time (every event) is unique, and anything can happen. So, on this front I think we need to be flexible in our thinking, and I suspect that the creative side of the brain is better at imagining the future based on the plethora of subliminal observations we make.

But I do think that there is information imbedded in charts that can, if recognised, reveal clues about where the market might move to. Wave theories are about looking at the way markets seem to trend in many markets in many different eras. Statistics tries to collate past data to extrapolate the potential for future events to unfold.

I think that works like Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle, and the concepts underpinning quantum mechanics and chaos theory are near the mark about recognising the myriad of “tipping points” in events where many different possibilities, and their outcomes lead to what really happens.

Where I’m struggling is marrying the more orthodox statistics with a kind of quantum base. Some patterns work well in some markets and not others for instance, and then these patterns only work under certain conditions and in certain eras. I have a strong suspicion that the modern day orthodox regimen of back testing has a set of fatal flaws in it, and I am reminded of the logic behind George Soros’ reflexivity thesis about the division between perception and reality, and the whole notion of the self fulfilling prophecy.

Perhaps Frank is the new “Gann” of our age, and I would welcome this if he really has made such a profound break through. I am currently persuaded that time is one of the most vital elements in trading, and look forward to grasping his perspective. But I have concerns with Frank’s sweeping certainty that he alone has the key to predict the future in the markets with his time approach, and that no other discipline can do this. While I respect the work he has done, and would like to study it more deeply, I still come back to this core dilemma, and wonder if he has solved it, or is like the rest of us using his version of the “art of the possible”.

I suspect no one has a monopoly on forecasting time, and I suspect there are many different tools which are looking at the same thing, but I have no way to measure their respective accuracy (in part because of the uncertainly principle).

Look forward to hearing the responses to these observations


Regards


Magdoran

 

[barney]

Pattern Analysis and the dilemma of uncertainty and probability:


Hello Les,

I’ve been thinking about one of your questions regarding the statistical analysis of various patterns and the expected probability from these patterns.

With pattern recognition, I think all of us are making our best shot guess, whether we dress it up with algorithms based on moving averages, or if we use the “computer between our ears”.

I’d argue that analysis is (I suspect necessarily) subjective since it depends on the reasoning process of the individual, their capacity to observe (keenness of senses and mind, experience and access), environmental factors, and the quality and quantity of information available to them, and the time available to process the information and the will to do so productively.

This is a dilemma that I suspect is one of those perennial philosophical conundrums which is to do with the way humanity struggles with understanding the past and trying to second guess the future. (Duc, you’d know about this).

The core question is “to what extent can we predict future events by studying and understanding the past”. It’s partly a history question along the lines of the concept that if we don’t learn from the lessons of the past, we are doomed to make the same mistakes in the future.

If you remember Bronowski’s “The ascent of man” BBC program, I remember the inspirational episodes where he talks about humanity standing on the brink of knowledge feeling forwards. I think trading is like this, we are standing on the brink of price action as it unfolds, feeling forwards.

Douglas talks about not having to know what is going to happen in order to make money if you are employing an edge. The primary problem of comparing different systems is that there is no objective standard to measure them by, only the current performance.

The term “past performance is no indication of future performance” comes to mind. What I’m getting at is that even the most robust predictive system in any field is often thwarted by reality. The rapid fall of France in 1940 seemed impossible until it happened, didn’t it?

So, what’s this all about? When researching past charts of indexes and commodities, there do seem to be patterns which seem to be repeated. The dilemma for me is that I do believe every moment in time (every event) is unique, and anything can happen. So, on this front I think we need to be flexible in our thinking, and I suspect that the creative side of the brain is better at imagining the future based on the plethora of subliminal observations we make.

But I do think that there is information imbedded in charts that can, if recognised, reveal clues about where the market might move to. Wave theories are about looking at the way markets seem to trend in many markets in many different eras. Statistics tries to collate past data to extrapolate the potential for future events to unfold.

I think that works like Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle, and the concepts underpinning quantum mechanics and chaos theory are near the mark about recognising the myriad of “tipping points” in events where many different possibilities, and their outcomes lead to what really happens.

Where I’m struggling is marrying the more orthodox statistics with a kind of quantum base. Some patterns work well in some markets and not others for instance, and then these patterns only work under certain conditions and in certain eras. I have a strong suspicion that the modern day orthodox regimen of back testing has a set of fatal flaws in it, and I am reminded of the logic behind George Soros’ reflexivity thesis about the division between perception and reality, and the whole notion of the self fulfilling prophecy.

Perhaps Frank is the new “Gann” of our age, and I would welcome this if he really has made such a profound break through. I am currently persuaded that time is one of the most vital elements in trading, and look forward to grasping his perspective. But I have concerns with Frank’s sweeping certainty that he alone has the key to predict the future in the markets with his time approach, and that no other discipline can do this. While I respect the work he has done, and would like to study it more deeply, I still come back to this core dilemma, and wonder if he has solved it, or is like the rest of us using his version of the “art of the possible”.

I suspect no one has a monopoly on forecasting time, and I suspect there are many different tools which are looking at the same thing, but I have no way to measure their respective accuracy (in part because of the uncertainly principle).

Look forward to hearing the responses to these observations


Regards


Magdoran

Hey Mag, Not trying to butt in here, "but" I like the way you think!! ( I think)..........Now I've only quickly read your post but, my spin on what you are getting at is close to what I think is a very important "overlooked" aspect of "trading"....(correct me if I am on a different wave length to what you are saying ) The Phsycology of how humans think/react is "possibly" the most important aspect in relation to how the "market" operates. Humans are basically sheep..... We follow because we (but not everybody) are conditioned to follow the mainstream.........hence the reason why analysis of past data is functionable.....because "most" people were "doing it" (following the trend).........Imo we can either be "victims" of the market force, or use it to our advantage............to follow the trend is sensible, (and often works), but in saying that, we can be quickly caught out in a "reversal" of "sentiment", if the "big players" (the ones with all the money) "choose" to "change the rules" midstream so to speak.................What I am getting at, (which is only me thinking out a loud after a couple of beers) is that human phsycology imo is very important to market operation, not because we can predict what people will do, but because we can predict what people will do AFTER the "rulemakers" (those with influence; ie. lots of money/access to multi media advertising/ etc. etc. make a decision..........so if we follow a trend which has been "instigated" by "those in power", then our chances of success are "amplified"...........does any of that make sense to anybody???........It does to me, but one of my best friends is a phsycologist, so maybe I'm being "manipulated".......... Cheers, Barney

 

[Bobby]

Magdoran you beleave every event is unique.
I like that thinking.
You do Not suffer from a esoteric mindset.
I like that also.

You opened up last post
Keep doing this please, I did like the spontaneity flow of sentence.

Now to Frank, grab a copy of his book & report back your thoughts .

Regards
Bob.

 

[Magdoran]

Magdoran,

I have yet to read that book, funny though it sits on my bookshelf I have neglected myself I know.

What other influences are there for you?




Lesm,

Nice quote!
Sometimes I see the analysis as difficult. Losing is something most will have troubles with.

Snake

Hello Snake,


I mentioned Ari Keiv's book "Trading in the Zone" as another book of interest a couple of posts back. I'd go for Douglas first, but the Kiev book is mixed - the mid part could be avoided...


Regards


Magdoran

 

[Magdoran]

Thanks wavepicker , you just verifyed what I've been saying all along --- you can'nt trade succesfully untill you "can get YOU together"-- trading bring out the faults in your approach to money managment ( greed, fear , advoidance , deniale , procrastation --- its all there ), better rectify these early with small $$$ amounts than blow the bank ---- any mug can select a up treading stock or even breakouts , the ART of trading comes in to knowing when to fold.
Where do you get the idea that I use MAs & Indicators from ?
I am basically a short term "pattern trader " with Wormald's TT Grid as a verification tool
For the Investment Portfolio I treat it more in the style of Weinstein, with GMMAs and ADX --- but thats not Trading in the sense reffered to here (I presume )


Don't want to turn this into a ego thing , but if you check out the OXR thread from post 299 to Last you will see I've been spot on with OXR all along and that was based on a Simple Method for THAT stock.




Magdoran :

Spot On --- have never studied Gann or Elliott but have a basic knowledge of Fibonacci .

Rejected these midway through :
Though I concead Yogiinoz seems to pick em,

Quite a few years ago the guy running SITM picked the LOW/DATE of the SPI , some of the press ran snip bits about this and SITM was everwhere ---
checked out what they where on about and it was their new u beut version of Gann ( no onelse could apparentlly figure it out) , they offered a 3 mths trail of their newsletter , some freinds and myself took up the offer on a rolling basis for around 18ths .

The point that consistantlly came over from their subsribers who where writing about their progress was " well we failed this year but , will take more courses to find out why " must have been that bloody Jupitor misalignment.
Some of these people appentlly had been with SITM for several years and could still not get it right .

The Financial Reveiw ran a few short snips about SITM and Gann and revealed the facts --- none of this was ever retracted that I know of .



As for Elliott :
Have been poking around the deceased KITCO forum for many years and the posters there whom had the greatest consistancy , insisted that POG trade in two Channels and if you use a Wormald Grid , you find that these guys knew what they where talking about.

But when ever POG broke these channels , out would come all the Elliott Practioners --- fair enough , but each one would be posting different versions of the same situation --- Elliott probably Knew what he was on about but that knowledge would appear to have been corrupted ( same with Bollinger ---Authers keep corrupting this) .

Then along would come the occasional Gann's follower --- these by far where the worst of all ! --- PREDICT a price on a specified date --- WOW !!
Must have been a cloud over the SUN , that buggered it up
Out of curiosity how does Gann work now with Pluto being downgraded



From the above obsevations , whilst not being stuck in a rutt, but using what I know to work and building on it , to anyone just starting out in Short Term Trading , I could in all honesty only recommend a Method based on Patterns & Trend Lines backed up with a min amount of suitable indicators for the style of trade in question , As for a total newbie -- Learn Trend Trading ( M/T - L/T ) FIRST !!!

Like I have been D/T & S/T since CMC hit Oz ,



Sorry
End of Subject

Hello Coyotte,

Thanks for your honest response, much appreciated.

Now, what is a Wormald Grid? I’ve never heard of that, sounds interesting...

I’m beginning to see why you have the impression you have reading your experiences with various Gann nuts. Unfortunately there are a lot of crackpots out there, and in a sector of the finance industry the nutters are often more visible than the really gifted people who are getting on with the business quietly in the background.

I must admit, I usually don’t say much about Gann in most circles because of the tumultuous response from some people who have has experiences similar to yours and the ones you relate.

I’d hate to be tarred with the same brush just because I’m the kind of guy who explores a lot and is open to new ideas, and like a magpie pinches the bits he wants and leaves the rest.

I’ve never really got the astrological stuff, I did read Larry Pesavento’s works amongst others, but it didn’t seem to work – maybe I was implementing it incorrectly, maybe it’s overrated, who knows? - But I try to examine all styles and try to understand them. This one I admit still eludes me.

I also share your view on the cost of some courses; I don’t think I need to say any more on this.

Part of the problem is that Gann published so many different works over his lifetime, and I believe deliberately planted red herrings to sort out the “wheat from the chaff”. Some of the early stuff interestingly enough was mechanical, and not unlike the Darvas system from what I can see. But this was later superseded...

There are a range of techniques Gann wrote about, and others have interpreted these works, but it’s not nice and cogent like reading a Wilson or Guppy book. It is a dog’s breakfast to piece together. But I still think that there are really valuable tools that you can fashion out of many of the ideas. That’s what it is, a body of knowledge to be absorbed or discarded as the reader sees fit.

Some of the works are actually really easy to read, and are well thought out and still relevant in my view – some of the ideas are not really highlighted anywhere else outside of Gann revisionists works, so there is some real value that cant’ be found elsewhere. Some of the insights into commodity markets for instance are still very potent from what I’ve found, a very interesting read.

I’d just like to say, hey, don’t judge a book by its cover. If you have an enquiring mind, what can it hurt to see the materials for yourself... you might be pleasantly surprised.


Regards


Magdoran

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Hello Snake,


I mentioned Ari Keiv's book "Trading in the Zone" as another book of interest a couple of posts back. I'd go for Douglas first, but the Kiev book is mixed - the mid part could be avoided...


Regards


Magdoran

Magdoran,

Thanks. Mr Kiev`s books are more for the institutional traders but do give some good points.

Snake

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Magdoran

The core question is “to what extent can we predict future events by studying and understanding the past”.

I don`t think we can. We can only understand where we are at.

I think trading is like this, we are standing on the brink of price action as it unfolds, feeling forwards.

Good analogy.

Douglas talks about not having to know what is going to happen in order to make money if you are employing an edge. The primary problem of comparing different systems is that there is no objective standard to measure them by, only the current performance.

Yes, good point this one.
Gann vs spoon feeding, how does one compare? Impossible.

The term “past performance is no indication of future performance” comes to mind. What I’m getting at is that even the most robust predictive system in any field is often thwarted by reality. The rapid fall of France in 1940 seemed impossible until it happened, didn’t it?

Yes, a bullmarket 25% vs a bear market -25%.

So, what’s this all about? When researching past charts of indexes and commodities, there do seem to be patterns which seem to be repeated. The dilemma for me is that I do believe every moment in time (every event) is unique, and anything can happen. So, on this front I think we need to be flexible in our thinking, and I suspect that the creative side of the brain is better at imagining the future based on the plethora of subliminal observations we make.

What are your thoughts on randomness?

Where I’m struggling is marrying the more orthodox statistics with a kind of quantum base. Some patterns work well in some markets and not others for instance, and then these patterns only work under certain conditions and in certain eras. I have a strong suspicion that the modern day orthodox regimen of back testing has a set of fatal flaws in it, and I am reminded of the logic behind George Soros’ reflexivity thesis about the division between perception and reality, and the whole notion of the self fulfilling prophecy.

My years of watching Fawlty Towers has prepared me for this: Que?

Perhaps Frank is the new “Gann” of our age, and I would welcome this if he really has made such a profound break through. I am currently persuaded that time is one of the most vital elements in trading, and look forward to grasping his perspective. But I have concerns with Frank’s sweeping certainty that he alone has the key to predict the future in the markets with his time approach, and that no other discipline can do this. While I respect the work he has done, and would like to study it more deeply, I still come back to this core dilemma, and wonder if he has solved it, or is like the rest of us using his version of the “art of the possible”.

We may never know.

Good post there Mag.
Snake

 

[Magdoran]

Hey Mag, Not trying to butt in here, "but" I like the way you think!! ( I think)..........Now I've only quickly read your post but, my spin on what you are getting at is close to what I think is a very important "overlooked" aspect of "trading"....(correct me if I am on a different wave length to what you are saying ) The Phsycology of how humans think/react is "possibly" the most important aspect in relation to how the "market" operates. Humans are basically sheep..... We follow because we (but not everybody) are conditioned to follow the mainstream.........hence the reason why analysis of past data is functionable.....because "most" people were "doing it" (following the trend).........Imo we can either be "victims" of the market force, or use it to our advantage............to follow the trend is sensible, (and often works), but in saying that, we can be quickly caught out in a "reversal" of "sentiment", if the "big players" (the ones with all the money) "choose" to "change the rules" midstream so to speak.................What I am getting at, (which is only me thinking out a loud after a couple of beers) is that human phsycology imo is very important to market operation, not because we can predict what people will do, but because we can predict what people will do AFTER the "rulemakers" (those with influence; ie. lots of money/access to multi media advertising/ etc. etc. make a decision..........so if we follow a trend which has been "instigated" by "those in power", then our chances of success are "amplified"...........does any of that make sense to anybody???........It does to me, but one of my best friends is a phsycologist, so maybe I'm being "manipulated".......... Cheers, Barney

Hello barney,


Actually the point I was trying to get across was the difficulty in assigning a workable probability to technical analysis patterns and approaches. I was saying that because all events are unique, and that the outcome of events is based on so many “tipping points” of uncertainly, that any approach is problematic. Essentially there is uncertainly when considering “to what extent can we predict future events by studying and understanding the past”, suggesting that the past performance of any system is not a guarantee of future performance.


This then begs the question “how we can measure that one approach is outperforming another”. The paradox is that you can never get a perfect answer to this, because there is no objective measure in the broadest possible sense, which means that when you boil it down, all any of us can do is to make out best shot guess.

Now, the concept of mass human psychology in the market is another thing altogether, and certainly an interesting one. In one sense the whole market is driven by the aggregation of the psychology of all the market participants, and to an extent, the organisations with larger funds can have a pronounced influence on price action.

So your question about prediction based on the concept you outlined is subject to the same dilemma, if that makes sense…

You can go nuts thinking about this stuff too much, the trick is to put it into practical use, but that’s another story!

Time for bed!


Regards


Magdoran

 

[Magdoran]

Magdoran


I don`t think we can. We can only understand where we are at.



Good analogy.


Yes, good point this one.
Gann vs spoon feeding, how does one compare? Impossible.


Yes, a bullmarket 25% vs a bear market -25%.



What are your thoughts on randomness?



My years of watching Fawlty Towers has prepared me for this: Que?


We may never know.

Good post there Mag.
Snake

Hello Snake,

In answer to the question: “to what extent can we predict future events by studying and understanding the past”.

The jury is still out for this one, but I do think that past lessons can be instrumental to solving present problems, and humans I think became dominant because we can imagine the future and conceive of effective methods to confront future problems with – essentially the ability to learn, plan, design and implement.

Randomness is a hard question because you can fall into semantic polemics. I have a hunch order and randomness (depending on how you define it) actually coexist in reality – an analogy would be the uncertain quantum microcosm coexisting and indeed the basis of the world we know. But in trading terms like the random walk theory, I think it is highly flawed, but that is a paper in itself.

I loved Fawlty Towers, especially the episode with the hamster – nearly had to go to hospital I laughed so hard, almost split my sides!

Yes, the irrepressible Frank... If he is the “new Gann”, I’m sure he will be a billionaire soon, so he won’t have to bother with ASF if he doesn’t want to... Shame he got kicked off RC.


Thanks Snake, interesting questions you raised too – that randomness one is a monster!


Regards


Magdoran

 

[Magdoran]

Magdoran you beleave every event is unique.
I like that thinking.
You do Not suffer from a esoteric mindset.
I like that also.

You opened up last post
Keep doing this please, I did like the spontaneity flow of sentence.

Now to Frank, grab a copy of his book & report back your thoughts .

Regards
Bob.

Hello Bob,

So you’d like to see what I make of Frank’s materials? I read a lot of his stuff on RC, and I think there is a genius at work, but a lot of his logic eludes me.

I recently downloaded some of his papers from this site, and must get and read them.

I wish he’d give us a synopsis…

Glad my musings were of interest!


Regards


Magdoran

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

My point too Snake, charts don't mean everything especially in the current market, they are one of the tools us TRADERS use though.

Personally I could have sworn a couple of the oilers were going to take a turn a week back and look what happened!, funny market these last few months!

What do you mean Freeballing? "In the current market"

I don`t discount their use or their value, just the approach to them - looking beyond right or wrong.

 

[barney]

Hello barney,


Actually the point I was trying to get across was the difficulty in assigning a workable probability to technical analysis patterns and approaches. I was saying that because all events are unique, and that the outcome of events is based on so many “tipping points” of uncertainly, that any approach is problematic. Essentially there is uncertainly when considering “to what extent can we predict future events by studying and understanding the past”, suggesting that the past performance of any system is not a guarantee of future performance.


This then begs the question “how we can measure that one approach is outperforming another”. The paradox is that you can never get a perfect answer to this, because there is no objective measure in the broadest possible sense, which means that when you boil it down, all any of us can do is to make out best shot guess.

Now, the concept of mass human psychology in the market is another thing altogether, and certainly an interesting one. In one sense the whole market is driven by the aggregation of the psychology of all the market participants, and to an extent, the organisations with larger funds can have a pronounced influence on price action.

So your question about prediction based on the concept you outlined is subject to the same dilemma, if that makes sense…

You can go nuts thinking about this stuff too much, the trick is to put it into practical use, but that’s another story!

Time for bed!


Regards


Magdoran

I'm with you now Mag, its all pretty deep stuff.....interesting to ponder apon to keep the brain ticking over................As for the going nuts............I've already been there and its over rated!!!! :blaah: