Hi Mag,
Certainly the Neely seminar showed up some common problems most EW practioners encounter when dealing with EW Analysis.
Like the conventional EW practioner, Neely does not like ambiguities, subjectiveness, and multiple wave counts. As such he has attempted to rectify this by creating a more objective approach. There is some brilliant content in his book such as some of the ratio's patterns are priceless and often don't get the recognition they deserve.
Personally, I don't use his polywave or monowave stuff... just his very detailed info of wave structure in both time and price that ties in very well with the original Elliott works that helps to gain, more of a "feel" for the different types of wave personalities.
In his effort to make EW more objective however, and arrive at only one wave count, there is a plethora of extra rules and guidelines, way above and beyond what most EW parationers would use. Even contruction of his monowave charts are very time consuming and simply not feasible to trade. basically great for learning but too much work for too little gain.
I too have encountered the subjectivess, too many wave counts and ambiguities. I have in the last 3-4 years changed my approach by recognizing that there are 3 elements in overal market analysis:
-Pattern
-Price
-Time
The pattern aspect is the most important, and EW analysis as such will identufy most patterns one hopes, but there are other aspects that one should look at too. But pattern is also not always easily quantified. Time(time cycles) is the next most important. TIME is more important than price much more. It is the only thing that is constant and never changes, and when integrated with fibonacci relationships within price, one can have a powerful combination.
With the combined application of these 3 EW ambiguities and subjectiviness can be greatly reduced.
Cheers
Hello wavepicker!
I was hoping you’d give your perspective on our little outing… it was great that you located this opportunity to see Neely in action!
I’m in total agreement that “TIME is more important than price much more.” This is a conclusion I came to after much study into the subject. The dilemma I now face is that I am primarily pattern driven for locating and working with time, while I believe Yogi doesn’t even need the pattern. This has been bugging me for the last month or so...
So, having worked with EW structures, I found Neely’s time and pattern proportions using Fibonacci numbers intriguing as you say. The interesting thing is that I slowly moved to “Gann” increments using eights and thirds, rather than “Fib” increments (although I do use these for specific purposes) over time. As you know I work in these increments in time to forecast support/resistance in time, hence using “Fib” based increments I found were less effective (same is true for price extensions and retracements).
What is interesting is that I’m beginning to see how it may be possible to use “Fib” increments in time in concert with some of Neely’s proportions (have to do a lot of work on this and go right back in time and see if this is bourn out in reality in charts).
I was especially interested in his “bow tie” wave pattern. This is really interesting material, seeing a set of linked waves in what an ordinary person would see as a giant mess of random movements, catalogued and understood as a recurring market wave pattern phenomenon. Neely must have been truly inspired to see these complex wave structures, and be able to distill them into classifiable types.
I’m beginning to see how to better merge the Gann and EW materials... I have a pet theory that this is kind of like the physicist’s battle over wave and particle theories (or maybe quantum vs Relativity), that wave structure, and market cycles using geometric styles can in some ways be unified. Grasping Neely’s concept has inspired me to consider this in a new way (but I'm probably just reinventing the wheel that someone else discovered a long time ago but hasn’t published).
I agree, the objective is to minimise the ambiguities and subjectivity consistently and effectively in practice, as Les says, keeping it simple.
How is the delta material coming?
Warm Regards
Magdoran