Colin Twiggs Newsletter said:If you see an express train coming, step off the tracks. Extending Jesse Livermore's analogy: it is also important not to step back on the tracks until the last coach has passed. Bear market rallies are typically steep and accompanied by large volume. High volumes warn that existing stockholders are taking the opportunity to sell down their remaining positions. Stocks are transferred from strong hands to weak, and the market is likely to fall sharply at the first setback.
From Colin Twiggs, a free newsletter recieved by Email every couple of days..
Regards,
Buster
Former U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said Thursday the odds of a U.S. recession are 50 percent or "slightly more," as he defended the risky subprime mortgages that accelerated a drop in the American housing market and subsequent economic downturn.
Nothing like listening to an artist describe their own canvas . Was that his pastel period ?
In 07, minus the property and financial sectors, the US economy, depending on the figures your looking at, grew by some 12%.
If your currently holding positions in the mining sector, your looking good, do not fear the US downturn. China will continue to grow at or near double digit figures through 08/09, and let’s not forget India is only just beginning it’s growth phase, the next 5 yrs should be very interesting indeed.
Nothing like listening to an artist describe their own canvas . Was that his pastel period ?
BOE"s BLANCHFLOWER SAYS
*DOWNSIDE RISKS TO GROWTH OUTWEIGH UPSIDE RISKS TO INFLATION
*EVIDENCE FROM HOUSING AND COMMERCIAL PROPERTY MARKETS IS "WORRYING"
*CURRENT UK INTEREST RATES RESTRICTIVE, MPC SHOULD GET AHEAD OF CURVE
*WORRYING ABOUT INFLATION NOW SEEMS LIKE "FIDDLING WHEN ROME BURNS"
Blanchflower has always been a dove, even all through last year. Not a statement that would surprise anyone here.cming through Rooters now...
Cheerless
..............Kauri
Blanchflower has always been a dove, even all through last year. Not a statement that would surprise anyone here.
Paraphrasing Crash Gordon on TV today: "Low inflation is remarkable considering how fast prices are rising"
Maybe entering his van Gogh period.
Is that like saying that inflation is low if you take out energy & food costs? We need to take a holistic veiw of the US and determine if the sum of the parts is going to impact on the whole, which at this point it will be, only the severity and collateral damage to the rest of the world is in doubt.
Ah yes, China again, the great saviour of the world as we know it. China is a basket case waiting to implode because of corruption, poor corporate standards (banks are a mess, wait for the big write offs, if they dare make it public), zero environmental regard, and low qaulity of life (or death if you don't agree with the nouveau capitalists). It's concerning that Australia has all their eggs in the one basket (case?). Make hay while the sun shines in the meantime I spose.
Woops, pushed the wrong button there perhapsLOL, you just proved my point. And yes, inflation would be low if you take out energy and food, that's a no brainer. But that wasn't my point was it Uncle, nice way to twist my words to support your argument though. The property sector starts taking a dive, which in turn affects the financials, full stop. The rest of the US economy is in good shape. So if rate cuts and stimulus packages can soften the blow for the financials and at the same time help those struggling to pay their mortgages, there's no evidence to suggest the rest of the US economy is in such a bad shape. But please, enlighten me with more bear news, I'm sure you've got a ****load stashed away for days like this : )
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Asian markets took a tumble Monday in the wake of a pre-weekend slide on Wall Street, with Shanghai listed stocks suffering the steepest decline on fears a U.S. economic slowdown could hit its exports.
"People are starting to worry about what's happening around the world," said Andrew Clarke, sales trader at SG Securities in Hong Kong. "If the U.S. slows down and goes into a recession, then China isn't going to grow as fast. It may not go into a recession, but a sharp decline from a growth of 11% or more will in effect be a recession."
China's Shanghai Composite sank 5.5% to 4,500.81 by late morning to lead the region's declines.
The idea behind reducing rates is to keep the housing recession and the problems in the credit markets from spilling over more broadly into the general economy.
In 07, minus the property and financial sectors, the US economy, depending on the figures your looking at, grew by some 12%.
So the question everyone wants the answer to is this, How do you help those struggling with their mortgage repayments, and at the same time free up cash for the borrowers/lenders, or should that be making it more affordable? The answer is to cut rates as much as you dare, and funnily enough, it looks like Bernanke and his team have finally woken up to the fact that the problems that these sectors are facing, desperately requires their intervention.
Cutting rates is just the starting point, it's not the be all and end all, but it's one of the most important factors that will help these guy‘s dig themselves out of the hole they‘ve found themselves in.
Let's just say though, that they don't avoid a recession. Here’s food for thought. When we're watching the pennies, in times of hardship, do we as consumers target brand names, or do we look for the “bang for your buck“ items that allow you to buy more for less? If this is the case, then we need not worry so much about what the US economy is doing, because just about everything that is affordable has the "made in china" tag on it.
We'll be reasonably cushioned from any US recession. The mining boom will continue, so we can be reasonably optimistic when considering our future. I know that our economy is made up of several sectors, I’m not that naive, but hey, the mining sector sure is a decent slice of the pie when looking at the big picture, and when you understand how this sector feeds some many others, you don’t need to be a rocket scientist to see we’re in a good position to ride out any storm that may develop out of the US. Predictability though, our markets will initially follow the US, as will the rest of the world, but eventually we will all realize that it's not all doom and gloom having the US performing badly. It's probably the last thing the markets need to do, to be able to stand alone and not follow the US like lambs to the slaughter : ))
If your currently holding positions in the mining sector, your looking good, do not fear the US downturn. China will continue to grow at or near double digit figures through 08/09, and let’s not forget India is only just beginning it’s growth phase, the next 5 yrs should be very interesting indeed.
The same tired old Chindia argument. China itself doesn't even believe it will get out of a US slowdown unscathed. The decoupling theory of 2007 will be replaced by the recoupling reality in 2008.
Decoupling or globalisation - but not both
Posted by: Stephen Roach, Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia
The US consumed over $9.5 trillion in 2007 - fully six times the combined consumption totals for China ($1 trillion) and India ($650 billion). It would be almost mathematically impossible for "Chindia" to fill the void that is likely to be left by a consolidation of the American consumer.
But of course you can't recouple something that was never decoupled in the first place
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?