Imminent and severe market correction

sassa · 7 November 2007

A $39b writedown by GM.Now that is a big figure.Only last month their shares shot up on a successful agreement with the union.I wonder what the investors will do tonight?With the reported loss of $68.85 a share,I would be feeling a tad queasy and wanting to sell.

Kauri · 8 November 2007

Whispers starting out about potential write downs at Morgan Stanely...
Cheers
.........Kauri

ithatheekret · 8 November 2007

Kauri said:
Whispers starting out about potential write downs at Morgan Stanely...
Cheers
.........Kauri

Yes they have problems too , but what is mysterious is that Goldman Sachs are ominously silent .

sassa · 8 November 2007

Kauri said:
Whispers starting out about potential write downs at Morgan Stanely...
Cheers
.........Kauri

News of the Morgan Stanley problem.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={84AE5381-B041-478D-BD71-9A93B4670052}

Gundini · 8 November 2007

Kauri said:
Whispers starting out about potential write downs at Morgan Stanely...
Cheers
.........Kauri

Yes, around 3.7 Bil which believe it or not is on the lower side of the expected writedown. So maybe they are happy with that result!

More doom and gloom to come yet me thinks... And $100 a barrel for juice can't help either. Head for the hills...

eMark · 8 November 2007

Gundini said:
Yes, around 3.7 Bil which believe it or not is on the lower side of the expected writedown. So maybe they are happy with that result!

More doom and gloom to come yet me thinks... And $100 a barrel for juice can't help either. Head for the hills...

I know t's early, but has anyone seen the futures for SP500 (-13.10) and Nasdaq (-30.75)

blablabla · 8 November 2007

DOW closed this morning at 13300 after a fall of 360 points. DOW futures are now at 13275. It is not a certainty that USA markets will fall again tonight.

The DJI is in a downtrend and it will require some good news to turn sentiment around. More bad news in USA could result in a sea of red here tomorrow.

eMark · 8 November 2007

blablabla said:
DOW closed this morning at 13300 after a fall of 360 points. DOW futures are now at 13275. It is not a certainty that USA markets will fall again tonight.

The DJI is in a downtrend and it will require some good news to turn sentiment around. More bad news in USA could result in a sea of red here tomorrow.

Well the Morgan Stanley news is currently being factored in to todays futures. Where do you get your info re futures? I get mine from cnn.com

Is this correct???

http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/index.html

Nov 8 1:19am

Change %Change Level

Dow -400.00 -2.92% 13,277.00
NASDAQ -30.25 -1.39% 2,150.75
S&P -11.00 -0.74% 1,471.80

Porper · 8 November 2007

Porper said:
Thought this chart of the Dow was interesting.Only just noticed it unfortunately.

The patterns in the red boxes are uncanny in their likeness.

The bars above the two wave B's are very alike, and judging by what the Dow is doing as I write the next bar will be identical as well.

If the bigger count is a wave a,b, and C the two patterna will be similar, but they don't usually match as well as this.

Not to say we will go all the way down to the 13000 area, but it is looking more like it.

Just updating the chart of the Dow.

The pattern as you can see is still playing out as an almost mirror image of the last correction.

Tomorrow and Monday will be very interesting.Could we have one last push down then have another strong impulse up ?

I am ready and waiting to buy if it carries on like this

explod · 8 November 2007

Porper said:
Just updating the chart of the Dow.

The pattern as you can see is still playing out as an almost mirror image of the last correction.

Tomorrow and Monday will be very interesting.Could we have one last push down then have another strong impulse up ?

I am ready and waiting to buy if it carries on like this

Could the two bottoms be seen as an uptrend line. If so a breach down could see a further drop. Probably not enough information. The first candle is a reverse (nearly a hammer) where as last night is a solid down which usually says continuation in that direction. Some of the chart techs may help??

wavepicker · 8 November 2007

For months now we had been looking for a cycle peak for the SP500 of 5th October plus or minus a few days. This high came in 3 trading days later than expected, albeit close enough to the mark. The XAO I expected to put in a high around about the same time but this time(unlike the previous 2 major peaks) it kept trending for a few weeks. Them's the breaks....this model has worked very nicely for the yanks markets but not so well for ours this time around.

So when is the next critical low most likely??? Back when the date for the probable peak was calculated which was late August, the next major cycle low date was 14/15th November as well as 20th November another critical date.

I would think the SP500 has good chance of finding support around that cycle point and then rally into Feb/March next year for the final leg up in the bull market.

If this is does happen(these dates are not cast in stone but merely points in time that might prove important) then it we will have quite a good long probable Ending Diagonal pattern in force. Fast moves usually come from such moves(such as 1987), but saying we will have a crash. Just good to take such patterns into consideration and look for probable circumstances from which to trade.

Some excellent trading opportunities at present!!

Cheers

eMark · 8 November 2007

Is the DOW at this point really looking at starting down 400 points? I've never seen anything like it. That's what I see in front of me.

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

Porper · 8 November 2007

eMark said:
Is the DOW at this point really looking at starting down 400 points? I've never seen anything like it. That's what I see in front of me.

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

Not too sure where you get that from eMark, I see them down 58 points ?

400 wouldn't be too bad anyway.You obviously weren't around in 1987.

sam76 · 8 November 2007

eMark said:
Is the DOW at this point really looking at starting down 400 points? I've never seen anything like it. That's what I see in front of me.

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

I see this

Dow 13,311.00 -44.00 -0.33

bloomberg.com

explod · 8 November 2007

Porper said:
Not too sure where you get that from eMark, I see them down 58 points ?

400 wouldn't be too bad anyway.You obviously weren't around in 1987.

Agreed, in fact a bit of a spook with what has come out in the last few weeks and we could easily see a drop to next major support at 11,000. That's what happens in real corrections. So far it just been a bit of mild volatility.

Awesomandy · 8 November 2007

Porper said:
Just updating the chart of the Dow.

The pattern as you can see is still playing out as an almost mirror image of the last correction.

Tomorrow and Monday will be very interesting.Could we have one last push down then have another strong impulse up ?

I am ready and waiting to buy if it carries on like this

HSI has regained some of its losses at the end of today, and, apart from the gap down at open, the European markets are doing ok at the moment. I'm actually leaning towards a flat close for the Dow today, or may be even up slightly.

And, if they start to trend up again, it's probably a good time to buy. Despite the recent volatility, the newer high is higher than the corresponding high from a few months ago, and the newer low is also higher than the corresponding low from a few months ago. This means, the bull is still alive (for now anyway).

sassa · 8 November 2007

eMark said:
I know t's early, but has anyone seen the futures for SP500 (-13.10) and Nasdaq (-30.75)

The market indicators have halved in the last 3 hours with over 5 hours to go to opening time.Are the institutional investors in driving the markets up?

eMark · 8 November 2007

Porper said:
Not too sure where you get that from eMark, I see them down 58 points ?

400 wouldn't be too bad anyway.You obviously weren't around in 1987.

Well I was around, but in my teens and most certainly not trading. I'm not shocked by drops of 400, it's just that I have never seen the futures state 400 down. Try this link

http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/index.html

I'm not seeing things From what I have read, it's obvioulsy not that number, but go and have a look, it's surreal. It's listed with the correct SP500 & Nasdaq figures.

soso · 8 November 2007

wavepicker said:
So when is the next critical low most likely??? Back when the date for the probable peak was calculated which was late August, the next major cycle low date was 14/15th November as well as 20th November another critical date.

Hey wavepicker all currencies that I watch also have major cycle vibrations between 13 and 15 November. Will be interesting to watch!

wavepicker · 8 November 2007

soso said:
Hey wavepicker all currencies that I watch also have major cycle vibrations between 13 and 15 November. Will be interesting to watch!

I notice you took an interest in Magdorans work, do you use Gann Geometric techniques as well?

Imminent and severe market correction

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