Imminent and severe market correction

GumbyLearner said:

Time is what you need. In the words of Benny Benazzi.
Don't bank on anything for 2010 IMHO!

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I'll be right, i'm not a buy and hold type, i'll be out when the market gets me out.

CanOz

But now I am getting a little edgy again. There is a little too much confidence and a lot of complacency in these markets.

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The market always goes more than we think one way or the other. The bull top, the bear bottom. It's happening again. In a sadistic way it squeezes out the exuberant shorters, squeezes out the nervous longs and when the collective financial elite give the thumbs up, then she lets go.

Wysiwyg said:

The market always goes more than we think one way or the other. The bull top, the bear bottom. It's happening again. In a sadistic way it squeezes out the exuberant shorters, squeezes out the nervous longs and when the collective financial elite give the thumbs up, then she lets go.

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If that's what you think is happening then perhaps my 90% - 92% cash stance may be proved right shortly. Are AUDs and USDs the right currencies though?

noirua said:

If that's what you think is happening then perhaps my 90% - 92% cash stance may be proved right shortly. Are AUDs and USDs the right currencies though?

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The 'right' currencies are those not printed on paper or plastic and backed by promises? Stay away from the rest
Actually, I think physical dollars in either currency will suffice?? Just don't get them stuck in a bank........

Uncle Festivus,

I think physical dollars in either currency will suffice?? Just don't get them stuck in a bank......

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If the banks look dodgy again, the govt will just print more money and guarantee them further.

brty

brty said:

If the banks look dodgy again, the govt will just print more money and guarantee them further.

brty

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Of course with CBAs 6 bil upgrade on Friday arvo thinking that they are in trouble is so so last year

(which in fact was already so 2008)

Get over it bears the worlds moved on & you are being left behind. Printing press won - you lost :

Trembling Hand said:

Of course with CBAs 6 bil upgrade on Friday arvo thinking that they are in trouble is so so last year

(which in fact was already so 2008)

Get over it bears the worlds moved on & you are being left behind. Printing press won - you lost :

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Chill dude, I'll take the bait - round 2 is just beginning..................:alcohol:

Gee, stock markets are up, we must be back to normal - let's see what another $5Trillion buy's us? Another 70% rise this year? Just the small matter of paying it all back now or doing a Greece? Just a few more reverse slinkies on the charts by Goldmans :evilburn: work experience boys to keep the techo's happy......

Hers a chart - dunno what it means but it looks nice ?

Just the small matter of paying it all back

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Considering that they borrowed lots of it from themselves, ie Quantitative easing/ printing money, to whom are they paying it back to??

TH,

Get over it bears the worlds moved on & you are being left behind. Printing press won - you lost

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I agree about the get over it bit, but there was a 'severe market correction', the bears were right, they just forgot to stop being bears, which tends to happen during every pullback in every market.

brty

It's articles like this from The Age that have me concerned. Be fearful when others are greedy etc:


Running with the market RICHARD WEBB
January 17, 2010
Shares have soared 55 per cent since March, but experts say there's loads more to come.

THE resource giants, mining and engineering services companies, retailers, financials and internet-related stocks are some of the places to be to take advantage of what is expected to be a solid year on the sharemarket, stock experts say.

But go easy on telecommunication companies such as Telstra and property trusts, for now at least.

With stock watchers predicting another good year for local shares - most tipping an overall market gain of about 15 per cent for 2010 - many mum and dad investors are wondering where to invest to take advantage of the expected continuing bull run. The simple answer is: pretty much where you should have made your investments last year, too!

Broad consensus is that the major resource companies of BHP and Rio are on a roll, with the Chinese economy expected to power ahead at a 10 per cent growth rate in 2010 despite the monetary tightening in China that began last week. Commodity prices will continue to head higher because of Chinese demand, and BHP and Rio are also expected to secure big gains in the imminent coal and iron ore contract price talks with the Japanese steel mills.

Macquarie Equities associate director Lucinda Chan says the outlook is positive for offshore economies so companies such as BHP and Rio with big overseas exposure are poised to do particularly well.

"It's our view that Australia is travelling well and that we will get about 15 to 20 per cent out of the Australian sharemarket," she says. "But at Macquarie we believe that overseas markets will do better and we will get 20 to 25 per cent as overseas economies improve."

Ms Chan says Woodside is another to look at with the oil price continuing to climb. She also likes engineering companies that service the resource majors such as Transfield Services and Boart Longyear.

Peter Russell, head of research at Intersuisse, adds WorleyParsons to that list, while Michael Heffernan, at Austock senior adviser, also likes Leighton and United Group as well as smaller operators Neptune Marine and Mermaid Marine.

Mr Russell says the sharemarket has now clawed back about half the points it dropped from its all-time closing high of about 6828 in November 2007 to its March 2009 low of 3145, and some investors are becoming cautious because of it.

"It's becoming a glass half-full, glass half-empty situation," he says. "But when you look at the outlook for Australia and China, we are encouraging clients to take a positive view. We are saying let's be 100 per cent invested and go for it."

Mr Russell likes some of the employment and office services companies, too - such as online job advertising group SEEK and global serviced office provider Servcorp (given the strength of the Australian dollar and historically cheap office rental rates in many major European and US cities).

Austock's Mr Heffernan believes there is plenty of upside in the retail and banking sectors, too (even though the banks are much closer to their all-time highs already), and he likes industrial stocks such as GUD, which is benefiting from a strong dollar in the offshore sourcing of the products it sells locally under brand names such as Sunbeam.

"What I don't like at the moment are the telecoms, which is essentially Telstra, and the property trusts. Telstra continues to disappoint and the property trusts have big debt constraining them."

But overall Mr Heffernan is positive for shares. "It's the economy that always underpins the sharemarket and we are expecting to see economic growth triple in Australia this year, from 1 per cent to 3 per cent," he says. " Earnings are going to be the real driver of the market and I think they're going to be really good."

see Prechter has put a call out recommending 200% short position (on the Dow)

Good grief....

Prechter has put a call out recommending 200% short position (on the Dow)

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He did that when the DOW was at 3000 and again at 3500, how did that work out for long term holders??

Why do people pay any attention to such nonsense??

brty

brty said:

Good grief....

He did that when the DOW was at 3000 and again at 3500, how did that work out for long term holders??

Why do people pay any attention to such nonsense??

brty

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"Good grief"? lol

yep he got it wrong, but pretty certain he uses stops brty so doubtful it wiped him out

The signal to "long term holders" would be to tighten stops imo, after all he called the 2007 top very well. In my experience its useful to hear & listen to what the market is saying - but make your own judgements

if we get a general call for a top then a squeeze will be a good bet imo. what do you think brty? Would be interested to hear your opinion

In my experience its useful to hear & listen to what the market is saying - but make your own judgements

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I listen to the market, or should I say watch the market action, not the musings of persistent doomsayers.
Prechter is always predicting something, usually the end of the grand superdooper wis-bang thingy-majig. Of course he got the 2007 top correct, he makes enough guesses, err predictions.

brty

brty said:

I listen to the market, or should I say watch the market action, not the musings of persistent doomsayers.
Prechter is always predicting something, usually the end of the grand superdooper wis-bang thingy-majig. Of course he got the 2007 top correct, he makes enough guesses, err predictions.

brty

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thanks for your insight brty. Interesting that you read this thread if you don't watch the "musings of persistent doomsayers"

So where do you see things going? do you think we're in a similar position to the 3000-3500 action? or more aligned with 2007 action?

Ed

I read The Elliott Wave Theorist newsletter 20 years ago, I was slow and it took me time to realise that rubbish did not help in my trading.

So where do you see things going?

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I don't particularly care to forecast where things are going, as I take individual signals according to how I trade. Some things will go up others will go down, just a matter of taking the right signals.

Predicting the future is always perilous, and those that do eventually make right Bourkes of themselves. Think of the myriad of economists that get their 5 minutes of fame at the new year in the papers, most of the time they are totally wrong about the upcoming year, occassionally guessing correctly.

brty

Thanks Brty

I'm sure you could do a lot better with a prediction than the year end economists in the papers, don't you? you obviously have superior knowledge

Not sure I follow tho where you say you don't watch the musings of persistent doomsayers but hang around this thread??

Is it perhaps time to close this particular thread???

It was first created on 4th-April-2007, by UF posting an article warning about a coming market crash/prediction. It turned out to be a timely call, and there was lot's of discussion prior to and then since the March 09 bottom as to how far the crash/recovery would go.

The thread has now morphed into more of a "bad/bear news discussion and retort" thread, rather than a discussion of an imminent market correction threat.

Perhaps a new thread could be started by those so inclined for ongoing discussion? Maybe something like "Is the bear market over? Or Worse to come?", or something like that? That would be a good place for those who hold strong views about the inherit instability of the global financial system and the inevitability of it's demise to air their views within the current market context?

I think a new thread would make it easier for people browsing the forum to understand the context of much of the discussion that goes on here?

Cheers,

Beej

Maybe you are right Beej. Its been a good thread. I would like to see Unc stick around and start another one about when our funny money rally is going to bite use in the back side.

2twocents i think the broad rallies are over, its sorting the wheat from the caff from now on)

that'd be a shame the fun is about to begin again

Edwood said:

that'd be a shame the fun is about to begin again

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Interesting that generally the bears think the troubles coming with another collapse?

When the banana republic of UK just recorded the biggest jump in inflation in 12 years.

Pile in friends asset inflation here we come? And as usual I reckon gold will lag real "assets".