That must be reassuring. Regions was listed as one of the Dead-Man-Walking banks in a recent John Mauldin newsletter (written by Bennet Sedacca).the assumption of all the deposits of Integrity Bank by Regions Bank
Optimism? That is the issue with interpreting the written word but I would not describe the underlying theme of this thread as being optimistic. And yes I have been following this thread for over a year and yes I did not have a margin loan or used my house as an ATM so good for me.
But it is depression this and depression that. You will have very real threat of unemployment in a depression so the fact that you did not margin into ANZ will be meaningless. But the risks have been pointed out ad naseum by now so whatever I have to say about the current 'crisis' is meaningless too.
Everyone seems to forget that the world recovered from its depression last time around. I mean it took fascism eating itself to do so but we did it. We will all be better investors due to this credit maelstrom or at the very least regulation will be in place to avoid the excesses. After all the Fannie and Freddie model, spawned from the last depression, has worked well for 80 odd years which is a pretty good policy if you ask me. Now it needs to be re-jigged for the next generaion. Big deal.
You should all be celebrating the demise of Bear Stearns and hopefully Lehmann Bros and a few pissant regional banks too as this will mean your kids will have a better future. Take some pain, redefine the model and move on. Humans are self interested after all. There will be another up in the asset cycle.
I am a lot more optimistic today compared to 12 months ago; and it means we no longer have to hear about the 'War on Terror'!! Remember that abstract media construct?
Everyone seems to forget that the world recovered from its depression last time around. I mean it took fascism eating itself to do so but we did it. We will all be better investors due to this credit maelstrom or at the very least regulation will be in place to avoid the excesses. After all the Fannie and Freddie model, spawned from the last depression, has worked well for 80 odd years which is a pretty good policy if you ask me. Now it needs to be re-jigged for the next generaion. Big deal.
You should all be celebrating the demise of Bear Stearns and hopefully Lehmann Bros and a few pissant regional banks too as this will mean your kids will have a better future. Take some pain, redefine the model and move on. Humans are self interested after all. There will be another up in the asset cycle.
I am a lot more optimistic today compared to 12 months ago; and it means we no longer have to hear about the 'War on Terror'!! Remember that abstract media construct?
Market tankage is a time for bullishness and optimism... just not too soon into it. This will take a little while to play out, it's only just starting.
You see I think bears are serious misunderstood and misrepresented. Most of us are not calling for Armageddon, though we may use that word hyperbolically. We (and certainly me) are calling for exactly the above scenario; resetting, rejigging, clearing out malinvestment and then moving on.
CLASSIC AUSTRIAN ECONOMICS.
As I have stated ad nauseum, bears are bulls. Bears are only bearish so they can be bulls again.
If the facts on Chris Martenson's site are anything to go by, its only going to get worse....or at least it will be a very different life in the next two decades for most of us.
Here's a new thread, i really appreciate your comments Kauri, along with all the other realists here.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12227
Cheers,
CanOz
Thanks immensely for than canaus, I think it's difficult to cover so many topics in a two and half hour course but he has done a fantastic job of attemptiing it. A lot of the stuff on money and fuzzy stats I was well aware of but his analysis of peak oil and the concept ERoEI was eye opening. Can't wait for the last 3 chapters. Don't know that I necessarily agree with all his conclusions but I do agree that the next 20 years will be much different than the last 20.
You've got to wonder what makes these delicate flowers so emotionally fragile that they feel the need to run around and tell everybody that it's not the end of the world, even though nobody said it was. Projecting their own insecurities perhaps?
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You see I think bears are serious misunderstood and misrepresented. Most of us are not calling for Armageddon, though we may use that word hyperbolically. We (and certainly me) are calling for exactly the above scenario; resetting, rejigging, clearing out malinvestment and then moving on.
CLASSIC AUSTRIAN ECONOMICS.
As I have stated ad nauseum, bears are bulls. Bears are only bearish so they can be bulls again.
As we go into the northern hemisphere autumn, should I hope for more blooms from my now tatty looking petunias, should I invest in sunlamps and heaters to try to trick them into thinking it's still summer, or should I start preparing for winter and looking forward to next summer's blooms?
Financial winter is upon us folks, but that IS cause to be optimistic, because as winter follows summer and autumn, spring and summer follows winter.
There will come a point when this bear becomes unremittingly bullish and the economy tankage over here is exciting. I've prepared for it (a tad early so it turned out, but greedscam, crash gordon, et al had the sunlamps out on the petunias), so now I start preparing for the spring.
I'm still a bear for a while, but the bull is waking up as a result.
When was Warren Buffett most bullish? When did he buy stocks with his ears pinned back? When did Warren say his "spending drunken sailor" quote?
Yep, when blood was running in the streets, when market PE was 7 or 8 or something.
Market tankage is a time for bullishness and optimism... just not too soon into it. This will take a little while to play out, it's only just starting.
This must be a great post it mirrors my own opinion
Still need some serious fearful events to shake the fur off this bear market.
As fear approaches, the senses numb to only what an individual wants to believe. There are many sears to choose from who will strike the right cord for comfort.
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Global inflation is the economic variable to 'fear' if you are looking to return to equities. Make sure there are a few inflation hedges in your portfolio. Cash does not meet this criteria.
and so it goes on ... and on.. and.....aaaaahh.. something you can bank on..
Merrill's talks to sell a significant amount of bad loans to Korea Asset Management Corp are faltering because of a dispute over price according to the Korean firm's CEO. Failure to strike a deal may indicate Merrill and Lehman may have to cut prices for assets that they are trying to sell as mortgage-related losses widen.
Cheers
............Kauri
and so it goes on ... and on.. and.....aaaaahh.. something you can bank on..
Merrill's talks to sell a significant amount of bad loans to Korea Asset Management Corp are faltering because of a dispute over price according to the Korean firm's CEO. Failure to strike a deal may indicate Merrill and Lehman may have to cut prices for assets that they are trying to sell as mortgage-related losses widen.
Cheers
............Kauri
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Actually you should pray for inflation. The other thing is far, far worse.
Last week saw the publication of Q2 US whole economy profits data. They were shockingly bad. Core measures of profitability are in free-fall and have now reached a tipping point, where corporate activity could easily implode. We have also reached the point where companies give up ‘manipulating’ their profits higher and admit they are actually in free-fall. A combination of economic and reported profits slumping will catalyse the next equity downleg.
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