Imminent and severe market correction

Whiskers · 27 June 2008

Trembling Hand said:
That is a fundamental misunderstanding of how/who operates ALL futures markets. Speculators. All Futures. They are the best at pricing.

I hope you are stating other peoples opinions not yours. ie pollies.

Yes TH, I'm just trying to pick the market. As has often been said the markets (and pollies) move on sentiment far more than logic.

I essentially agree with you, provided the specualtors aren't a defacto monolopy corrupting the true market.

On a personal level I've been on the conservation or rather sustainability and recycling bandwagon for about 15 years... collecting all my old copper and brass fittings, alluminium and steel and taking to a recycler long before council recycling started in the area.

I'm phasing out horticultural production and now drive a very economical 4 cycl, so the price of oil isn't a big concern for me personally.

As far as political and economic issues are concerned, I try to put any 'aught to' type rationale out of my mind (except for election time) and focus on consumer, investor and political 'sentiment' in a more narrative than my own 'aught to' view.

Hows ya beer going? Whats your favourite? I had a change from Hahn Ice or that double hops beer or red tonight. Got hold of some nice Butterscotch Schnaps.

dhukka · 27 June 2008

Whiskers said:
I called an overall sideways market for the best part of the year... and that still hasn't changed. I also forecast a rise about may and coming back to a low for the end of june qtr.

Actually you called a low for the end of May

Whiskers said:
I'm still thinking up toward 6,000 + for a couple or three weeks and...

another low, but not lower low about late May.

And then this beautiful contrary indicator

Whiskers said:
I'm looking at the weekly chart and I reckon, looking at the standard deviatian channel, we could have a minor correction back to 5,800'ish also, and still be in uptrend, then push on for one more leg up well into the 6,000's in this move.

XAO at the time 5994, then proceeded to fall 11% in just over a month to today's level of 5349.

Whiskers said:
I suspect it's anxious times insofar as if the market turns up for another leg this week, as I expect, the worst case scenerio's will have to be revised and turn all eyes to the up side.

XAO at the time 5866, 23rd May

Whiskers said:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boggo
Interesting chart after today in relation to its retracement zone.

If it holds above approx 5790 then I think my count is valid.

6400 next ?

Click to expand...

Sounds about right to me.

But the brits and yanks aren't doing us any favors yet.

A bit of a slow start. Mondayitis I think.

After they come back from lunch they should wake up and get going.

XAO at the time 5703, 3rd June

Whiskers said:
I agree with the more recent part of Boggo's count and his projection.

It seems to me that the leg 5 target is 6258 minimum.

XAO at the time 5691, 6th June

Well, I feel sorry for you dhukka, if you can't find something rosy and pleasant in the world.

I find a great many things to be rosy and pleasant in the world, however your analysis is not one of them.

I just happen to subscribe to the philosophy that you are what you think and you will only attract positive experiences if you reflect a bit of positive karma.

Well it aint working, you keep forecasting positive scenarios for the stockmarket and it keeps going down.

Whiskers · 27 June 2008

Just thought I'd pop back in with this little survey of US opinion.

Dhukka, dear oh dear. Context man, context.

PS:

Stimulus sends personal income surging
The government's $48.1 billion in economic stimulus checks payments play a key role. Personal spending grows.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Personal income surged in May as the government's stimulus payment plan to jump-start the economy took effect, according to a report released Friday.

The Commerce Department said individual income shot up 1.9% in May as a result of $48.1 billion economic stimulus payments in the month.

Stimulus checks accounted for a huge 5.7% rise in disposable income, versus a 0.4% increase in the previous month.

Consumers increased their savings rate, as a percentage of disposable income, to 5% in May from 0.4% in April. Stimulus payments that go into savings or are used to pay off debts instead of being spent won't give the intended economic boost.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/27/news/economy/consumer_spending/index.htm?postversion=2008062709

wayneL · 28 June 2008

Whiskers said:
Just thought I'd pop back in with this little survey of US opinion.

Context man, context.

PS:

Context indeed. The context is that CNNNNNNN are Wall St cheerleaders; bobbleheads of the worst order; financial propagandists beholden to the idiocratic industry of shifting truths, obfuscation, and churn.

Elsewhere, the context changes:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/27/cnbarclays127.xml

Barclays warns of a financial storm as Federal Reserve's credibility crumbles

Last Updated: 7:16am BST 27/06/2008

US central bank accused of unleashing an inflation shock that will rock financial markets, reports Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Barclays Capital has advised clients to batten down the hatches for a worldwide financial storm, warning that the US Federal Reserve has allowed the inflation genie out of the bottle and let its credibility fall "below zero".

"We're in a nasty environment," said Tim Bond, the bank's chief equity strategist. "There is an inflation shock underway. This is going to be very negative for financial assets. We are going into tortoise mood and are retreating into our shell. Investors will do well if they can preserve their wealth."

Barclays Capital said in its closely-watched Global Outlook that US headline inflation would hit 5.5pc by August and the Fed will have to raise interest rates six times by the end of next year to prevent a wage-spiral. If it hesitates, the bond markets will take matters into their own hands. "This is the first test for central banks in 30 years and they have fluffed it. They have zero credibility, and the Fed is negative if that's possible. It has lost all credibility," said Mr Bond..........

dhukka · 28 June 2008

Whiskers said:
Just thought I'd pop back in with this little survey of US opinion.

Dhukka, dear oh dear. Context man, context.

PS:

Yes the context is clear, on each of the occassions I quoted you called the market higher and on each occasion it went lower.

ithatheekret · 28 June 2008

wayneL said:
Au contraire! As the only truly useful model for both projection and management, it should be compulsory.

Absolument franchement ! Then sheeples can even get ejumakated too .

And the globe needs to update its context and straighten the books !

Whiskers · 28 June 2008

wayneL said:
Context indeed. The context is that CNNNNNNN are Wall St cheerleaders; bobbleheads of the worst order; financial propagandists beholden to the idiocratic industry of shifting truths, obfuscation, and churn.

Elsewhere, the context changes:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/27/cnbarclays127.xml

Whooo there.... the context of my post was:

Which is the worst aspect of our dependence on oil?
The stimulus sends personal income surging... (albeit maybe only for a short time), and
Consumers increased their savings rate

The point being in the context of all the doomsday predictions that the stimulus package would have no effect and US consumers are debt-aholics who would never recover... obviously at least some have increased their savings rate... a point I made earlier was more important than spending all the stimulus to make the macro economic indicators look better more quickly.

The fact that they are increasing their savings bodes well for a sustained recovery.

My context was nothing to do with CNN. Those particular little facts that were the context of my post won't change regardless of whether they were delivered by the NY Times, the Courier Mail or some chinese herds man or whatever.

All this Barclays warns of a financial storm as Federal Reserve's credibility crumbles stuff is a totally different issue to the context of my post for two main reasons.

One, my post was about recorded economic facts ie facts... context of facts.

Two, that other rant is about perception that has not eventuated yet... like that recession come depression that hasn't happened yet.

All the hyper inflation speculation hinges on the price of oil. Oil collapses and the doomsday merchants will be on the lookout for another vehicle to hang their doom and gloom on.

Yes, indeed context is everything.

Whiskers · 28 June 2008

dhukka said:
Yes the context is clear, on each of the occassions I quoted you called the market higher and on each occasion it went lower.

The context my dear dhukka is in my use of our fine vocabulary which includes words like could and if as well as in projecting technical targets.

One has to be able to read, understand and then be able to properly interpret and represent the facts. :

By the way, I'm flattered... or should I be worried that you are stalking me, following my every move.

You will have to excuse me if I couldn't be bothered reciprocating. I have better things to do... like another favourite saying of mine... adversity is the seeds of opportunity... so, every day is 'rosy' for me no matter what the weather or politics or economy is. : :

dhukka · 29 June 2008

Whiskers said:
The context my dear dhukka is in my use of our fine vocabulary which includes words like could and if as well as in projecting technical targets.

One has to be able to read, understand and then be able to properly interpret and represent the facts. :

A nice try at squirming out of your failures but there is no ambiguity about the purpose of your posts. You were calling the direction of the market and you were wrong.

Whiskers said:
By the way, I'm flattered... or should I be worried that you are stalking me, following my every move.

You will have to excuse me if I couldn't be bothered reciprocating. I have better things to do... like another favourite saying of mine... adversity is the seeds of opportunity... so, every day is 'rosy' for me no matter what the weather or politics or economy is. : :

Actually I only looked on one thread (XAO Analysis) and it took very little time to find examples of your false calls. The bulk of the time went in deciding which quotes to use, since there are so many of them.

dhukka · 29 June 2008

On another note related to US consumer opinion. The Conference board that surveys US consumer sentiment, (now at it's lowest level since 1980) in the course of collecting their data ask the question whether jobs are hard to get or plentiful. The graph below shows that US workers clearly believe it is getting tougher to find a job. The interesting part of that graph is the strong correlation (0.87) with the unemploment rate.

sassa · 29 June 2008

A brief look at the papers this morning has the usual suspects talking up what a buying opportunity this market is. Consider:

What to Do to Survive This Market: "It's hard to time the market, so stay in and benefit from the inevitable turnaround"

Snatching Bargains From Bear's Jaws (WSJ)
Market Update: For Stocks, the Worst Is Over (Kiplingers cover via NYT)

Have Swaps Overdone the Gloom? (WSJ)

To those of use who have spent decades studying contrary indicators, this stuff is laughable -- and quite dangerous. At least Barron's has an interview with Peter Schiff -- as penance for their disastrous June 2nd 2008 "Buy GM" cover story a month ago

Most people assume that 1929 was when all the damage was done; it wasn't -- the rally and subsequent collapse was the most dangerous period. Trying to buy cheaply all-the-way-down is where nearly all the pain came from...

http://www.bigpicture.typepad.com/

Trembling Hand · 29 June 2008

Sassa are you short? Long? or just collecting news?

explod · 29 June 2008

Trembling Hand said:
Sassa are you short? Long? or just collecting news?

Pretty tepid analysis in this. Not speaking for Sassa, but the trumpet blowing confirmes my being out the right one at the moment. The long have crook backs and the shorts make big noise. (The short man syndrome)

ithatheekret · 30 June 2008

Aww whiskers , you must be a legal , you have completely spun the " facts " around .

1/Which is the worst aspect of our dependence on oil?

The fact that we are virtually powerless to do anything about it , we're oil junkies , policy after policy has set the markers out for this . Then along comes the ratpack of slumbering oil companies , who have direct links with anything but the consumer and more lobbyists than flies on a rotting carcus , hedging themselves to Boolaroo and back whilst snuggling up to anyone with a Saudi cut of an oil lease and a Presidents ear .

2/The stimulus sends personal income surging... (albeit maybe only for a short time), and

Whoops , sends what surging ? Misprint , misprint .
The only thing the stimulus has sent surging is the inflation rate period !

3/Consumers increased their savings rate

That's a beauty , all I can say about that is . They'll have to , they're saving up for petrol !

Whiskers · 1 July 2008

ithatheekret said:
Aww whiskers , you must be a legal , you have completely spun the " facts " around .

Noo,no,no, ithatheekret.

Actually, that's a bit of a back-handed compliment. ...because 'legals' tend to see what's important to get the job done.

Let me explain my context a bit more thouroughly.

1/Which is the worst aspect of our dependence on oil?

The fact that we are virtually powerless to do anything about it , we're oil junkies , policy after policy has set the markers out for this . Then along comes the ratpack of slumbering oil companies , who have direct links with anything but the consumer and more lobbyists than flies on a rotting carcus , hedging themselves to Boolaroo and back whilst snuggling up to anyone with a Saudi cut of an oil lease and a Presidents ear .

That little survey was just following on from a point TH made to illustrate how the yanks and probably many of us see the impact of the price of oil. As I mentioned earlier It hardly affects me personally.

But it's worth noting how people perceive the high price of oil. With surveys like that I am just making an observation and a judgement that although a degree of demand destruction is starting, the yanks would prefer to drive the price of oil right back down to maintain their lifestyle if they can. Something to keep in mind when that oil speculation bill becomes law to see if they invoke any new or extra powers to keep it down.

2/The stimulus sends personal income surging... (albeit maybe only for a short time), and

Whoops , sends what surging ? Misprint , misprint .
The only thing the stimulus has sent surging is the inflation rate period !

Well you said it, not me. Your giving the stimulus package credit for doing a lot more than the doomsdayers were anticipating... what, killed off the recession and kick started inflation

3/Consumers increased their savings rate

That's a beauty , all I can say about that is . They'll have to , they're saving up for petrol !

Well, isn't that a good thing too... just in case oil prices stay high... and if oil falls they'll have a bit extra to throw into the markets to pump them up again. Win, win, isn't it!

Whiskers · 1 July 2008

Since I've been carrying on about the impact of oil lately and the possible, even very probable collapse of the oil bubble, I thought it opertune to highlight the current good position of an evening star formation.

I know it's still early in the week, but if it holds around these prices for the rest of the week and given the pending course of the oil speculation bill to the senate and Bush, it makes for a good setup for a spectatular fall in a week or so and I would imagine that would spell quite a decent recovery for the economy and the stock markets.

explod · 1 July 2008

Whiskers said:
Since I've been carrying on about the impact of oil lately and the possible, even very probable collapse of the oil bubble, I thought it opertune to highlight the current good position of an evening star formation.

I know it's still early in the week, but if it holds around these prices for the rest of the week and given the pending course of the oil speculation bill to the senate and Bush, it makes for a good setup for a spectatular fall in a week or so and I would imagine that would spell quite a decent recovery for the economy and the stock markets.

There is an old saying, "do not try to catch a falling knife" I am going to introduce a new one, "Rising crap is b...s.hit. if it was the bull behind it. If it was the deputy, or the injun chief, stand aside Pal or you will be thunk" I think.

Whiskers, I love you for your enthusiasm. Just wish we could meet on the fundamentals of reality. But at this time of night I could very well be wrong. In fact my wife says., or intimates that I am wrong allthe time. Hope your not the missus in disguise.

Whiskers · 1 July 2008

explod said:
There is an old saying, "do not try to catch a falling knife" I am going to introduce a new one, "Rising crap is b...s.hit. if it was the bull behind it. If it was the deputy, or the injun chief, stand aside Pal or you will be thunk" I think.

Whiskers, I love you for your enthusiasm. Just wish we could meet on the fundamentals of reality. But at this time of night I could very well be wrong. In fact my wife says., or intimates that I am wrong allthe time. Hope your not the missus in disguise.

Just posting a 'keep an eye on this spot' notice, explod... cos the POG came off the boil in a pretty big way with just this setup, an evening star.

It's not a certainty, but I know there's a lot hinging on the price of oil and a lot of political and consumer resentment around the world, so I'm just keeping a close eye on it and what the US regulators will be doing with the new legislation.

It just stands out to be the perfect tool and oppertunity for them to improve their economic and political prospects, help the USD and the stock markets all in one 'foul' swoop.

explod · 1 July 2008

Whiskers said:
Just posting a 'keep an eye on this spot' notice, explod... cos the POG came off the boil in a pretty big way with just this setup, an evening star.

It's not a certainty, butI know there's a lot hinging on the price of oil and a lot of political and consumer resentment around the world, so I'm just keeping a close eye on it and what the US regulators will be doing with the new legislation.

.

The US regulators are not kin to GWB, so I think it will be fairly useless all round. Those that follow by all means. Gold well thats a long term thing, not worth speakin of really, its up more than 40% this last 12 months, nice to watch the grass grow my Dad used to say in the 60's as the herefords fatterned for the market. Whiskers wish I could reach ya, but some you just cant' But by Geroge if you got the Lord with ya then no worries I say. And My Dad (rest him) was a great believer.

explod · 1 July 2008

Yeh, bit sorry bout the last Whisker, cause while I was writing it up gold went up the same way by $5,. jeeess, interesting times. Funny oil bout the same, but US dollar down. Anyway, just hold them gold blocks and dont' think too much.

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