Imminent and severe market correction

[nizar]

Speculators can only influence the market in the short term. Sooner or later, usually sooner, the law of supply and demand takes over.

While what you say is true, speculators can move prices quite significantly in the short term.

Look at what the Hunt brothers did to silver in the late 1970s.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

While what you say is true, speculators can move prices quite significantly in the short term.

Look at what the Hunt brothers did to silver in the late 1970s.

Livermore in Cotton. not only did he control the market he owned it all.

 

[nioka]

While what you say is true, speculators can move prices quite significantly in the short term.

Look at what the Hunt brothers did to silver in the late 1970s.

Silver is a different kettle of fish. You can store it and you can easily reduce the usage. Oil is produced and used quickly and it is hard to reduce usage. Small reductions in it's use in one place is being offset by larger increases in other places. With the high cost of fuel, even the storage at individual service stations is below normal levels. My local servo often has some pumps out of fuel and last week was out of unleaded for the day. I doubt that the arabs will let speculators take profit that they could have themselves. i think the arabs are setting the price and are happy to see the USA squirm. Those speculating in oil will soon get caught and we will see another "sub prime" of the oil variety. It is not as though the oil is there to be bought and stored anyway. The main problem is peak oil. We are there.

 

[Whiskers]

The pressure is going to be on congress to do something about high oil prices this week.

This report is set to be tabled on thursday.

http://businesstravelcoalition.com/campaigns/consolidation/beyond_$2_coke.pdf

 

[wayneL]

"Free enterprise" at the crossroads?

(Actually, free enterprise has been under assault for some time.)

 

[theasxgorilla]

Any technies out there who got into videoconferencing back when the writing on the wall was still quite faint?

 

[explod]

Any technies out there who got into videoconferencing back when the writing on the wall was still quite faint?

Dont' know about the conferencing, but I mentioned a couple of books that I read last year and almost got howled off the screen. One published in 02, called it a bit early but has been spot on with the dynamics. For those keeping out a weary eye so far is just a walk in the park.

 

[sassa]

But what if the economy doesn't pick up steam in the second half of the year and the stock market continues lower? What if more banking problems materialize? Bank stocks are making new 52-week lows and have been falling fast this month. They do not seem to be forecasting an end to the credit crunch. And really they shouldn't, because there is no sign of a bottom in real estate and all indicators I follow suggest that we won't see one into at least the second half of 2009.

I think we are likely to see a Fall shock hit the market. Last year we saw the Fed do a 180 degree turn from talking about inflation to cutting rates like a mad hatter. This year I believe we will see the Fed abandon its talk of fighting inflation to once again intervening to bail out some bank, patch up the leaky economy, or in response to a stock market mini-crash. I think the situation right now is like it was a year ago - everyone is worried about inflation, but the bigger problems lurk in the cooked books the banks are carrying. In fact we are more likely to see more problems emerge and the stock market go lower as that is the primary trend right now.

In essence the Fed is playing a game of poker. It is bluffing when it says it is fighting inflation. It has no chips left and has bet everything on the slim chance that the economy has already bottomed. If something happens to make the Fed intervene again then it will be faced with a choice of fighting inflation by raising rates, which would have the effect of blowing up the banking system, or intervening to save the banking system, the economy, and the stock market, which of course would mean more inflation, a falling dollar, and falling bond prices. The Fed has proven that if it gets trapped into such a corner it will side to help the banks and the stock market a stable currency be damned.

If this is what we see happen in the Fall then the Fed will lose all of its credibility when it comes to maintaining a stable currency

http://www.safehaven.com/article-10581.htm

 

[ithatheekret]

Agreed, however no amount of manipulation is going to solve the medium term shortages of oil and food. We need new wells to come online and good agricultural seasons. It is stated that the new oil fields that Dubya was speaking of last week will take years to come online and will require $US200 to make them economic.

Certainly the futures markets can work wonders to ballance the books (and profits) but have we perhaps hit the perilous edge to those plays too.

Will be a very interesting week, I thunk

There's also the clean water shortage globally that has added to costs in food , it's not just a seasonal thing either , look deep into that and realise that water is an expensive resource , especially when it takes so much to get the basic needs of growing nations . They say oil is in everything , but so too is water .

Then oil users have to understand that we are in a new economic reality , that is making itself known to the world , the policy problems evolved partly due to administrations lack of response to this new reality and partly due to not wanting to acknowledge the fact in their terms in office .
Add military actions to it all and the tug of war gets to the stage where movements in price don't always mirror the dynamics in the fundamentals , chuck in speculation to the mix and bingo you get higher prices again .

But to top it all off , if the Persian Gulf gets locked up , then we'll see prices get extremely uncomfortable . The Iran problem would bite the middle easts exporters harshly , even the Saudis would find it impossible to ship their product . So much so that the new global dance would be the squirm !

 

[dhukka]

http://www.safehaven.com/article-10581.htm

The stockmarket is starting to come round to the reality that a second half recovery is looking less likely and that credit problems are here to stay for the rest of the year and well into 2009. Much is made of the transports as a leading indicator of the economy, UPS dropped this bomb after market last night;

UPS slashes its profit outlook due to fuel, economy

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- United Parcel Service Inc. said late Monday that it was slashing its second-quarter profit outlook, squeezed by soaring fuel prices and a sluggish U.S. economy.

It marks the second straight quarter that the company has warned it would not meet prior profit expectations. Its stock fell 4% in late trading.

The package-delivery giant cut its second-quarter profit forecast to a range of 83 cents to 88 cents a share. In late April, UPS had expected to earn between 97 cents and $1.04 a share. Since then, crude prices have surged from $110 to $136 a barrel.

On average, Wall Street analysts are expecting UPS (UPS) to earn 99 cents a share in the second quarter, according to a FactSet Research. The shipper will issue earnings July 22.

UPS said slow U.S. economic growth has slowed package volume in the United States and curbed sales of its premium air-delivery services. Shipments into the United States also have been affected, hurting its international-business unit.

Last week, rival FedEx Corp.also issued a profit forecast well below Wall Street expectations.

Stocks of both companies have performed in line with the broader market. UPS shares are down 6% so far this year, while FedEx is down 10%. By comparison, the S&P 500 Index is off 10%

 

[sassa]

This post could be controversial.

much more analytical traders like Barry Ritholtz do it too. Do what? Resort to "technical analysis", which is the art of drawing lines on charts and extrapolating from them what the market is going to do next.

Whenever you hear words like "overbought" or "oversold" or "momentum" or "support" or "resistance", it means that whatever you're hearing is garbage. But it also means that the person you're listening to has no idea what's about to happen, and is therefore resorting to the financial equivalent of astrology. In such cases, it's worth ignoring the message completely, but it's also worth having some serious thoughts about the messenger, too.

If you don't have any bright ideas about which way the market is going, there are two roads you can take. The smart and sensible route is to say "I don't have any bright ideas about which way the market is going". The dumb route is to get out your charts and start making predictions on the strength of technical analysis. So the next time you see someone doing that, ask yourself why they don't simply admit that they don't know. It would be much more honest, and much more useful

http://www.portfolio.com/views/blog...ures-in-technical-analysis-jim-cramer-edition

 

[Whiskers]

This post could be controversial.


http://www.portfolio.com/views/blog...ures-in-technical-analysis-jim-cramer-edition

Sounds like a simpleton, making simplistic assertions, simply demonstrating how simply dumb he is and simply vilifying anyone simply smarter than him who has a little more than a simple knowledge of technical (or fundamental) analysis and can use it more smartly than this dumb simpleton. :

 

[sassa]

Sounds like a simpleton, making simplistic assertions, simply demonstrating how simply dumb he is and simply vilifying anyone simply smarter than him who has a little more than a simple knowledge of technical (or fundamental) analysis and can use it more smartly than this dumb simpleton. :

Whiskers,what great alliteration.Be careful of the "this" in your last line.I suspect you are referring to the author of the quote,not yourself.A better word would have been "the."Cheers.
I thought it might cause some discussion.All healthy,of course.

 

[Whiskers]

Be careful of the "this" in your last line. I suspect you are referring to the author of the quote,not yourself.

Oops... yes indeed... although some may dispute.

 

[professor_frink]

This post could be controversial.


http://www.portfolio.com/views/blog...ures-in-technical-analysis-jim-cramer-edition

Not really. Someone who thinks that the dribble that comes out of Jim Cramer's mouth is technical analysis isn't really worth paying attention too

 

[explod]

Oops... yes indeed... although some may dispute.

Dont' worry, some one has to take the wrap. To be a blockhead is at least a form of support.

But a blockhead is not going to help the markets I suspect. Perhaps the saviour are the eyes and ears.

 

[Whiskers]

Dont' worry, some one has to take the wrap. To be a blockhead is at least a form of support.

Thanks for the consolation, explod... I think...

Moving on to something else undesireable... consumer confidence took a decent hit...

but congress is going to perk them up again by getting a posse after those oil price speculators and half the cost of fuel.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A key measure of consumer confidence dropped in June to the fifth lowest reading ever, as Americans grew more concerned about their jobs and more pessimistic about business conditions.

The New York-based Conference Board said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 50.4 from a revised 58.1 in May. The reading was the lowest since February 1992, when it was 47.3.

Economists had expected the index to decline to 56, according to a consensus compiled by Briefing.com.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/24/news/economy/consumer_confidence/index.htm?postversion=2008062410

 

[kingbrown]

Re Chinese Goverment propping up market ?

In a little more than six months, the benchmark Shanghai composite index doubled, passing the 6,000 mark in October. Since then it has nosedived to less than half that level - yesterday closing at 2941. Many analysts believe it would have sunk further by now had the government not intervened.

Small shareholders have been badly hit; some have lost their life savings. A few have even killed themselves in despair as their losses mounted.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/19/stockmarkets.investing

Any comments and some research on this would be welcome ?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Any comments and some research on this would be welcome ?

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9746

RIO & BHP killing the golden goose?

Australia's nest egg in the Chinese basket?

Can the world afford China?

 

[Aussiejeff]

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9746

RIO & BHP killing the golden goose?

Australia's nest egg in the Chinese basket?

Can the world afford China?

Well, ultimately the WORLD will have to pay for the resulting massive future hikes in the price of Chinese iron and steel .... what's good for BHP and RIO in the short term ain't gonna neccessarily be nice for your common Joe Blow in the long run!! (owww!! no pun intended Joe!)



AJ