prawn_86
Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata
- Joined
- 23 May 2007
- Posts
- 6,637
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- 7
Man, i have thought that so many times myself in the last 6 months or so.
Such a classic book, but scary at the same time... :bad:
(NB, Why does "Nineteen Eighty Four" keep coming to mind?)
TH, If you are correct, could you please explain where the money has gone??
You know that it is zero sum game, the money goes somewhere, both sides cannot be losers unless the money goes somewhere else.
Granted that some may have spent theoretical profits they don't have, but that does not change the fact that the money is not destroyed.
This ain't true if a company defaults the zero sum game becomes one of loses all round. The margin or assets put up by both sides is gone in loses or to creditors. Not sure how you figure the counterparty only loses paper profit.
As I said, regardless of whether it was reasonable or sustainable, the assumption by those conducting the business was that it was sustainable.
Not from you I don't, I've got a big enough collection of bumper stickers already thanks.
" The market is totally unregulated and those who hold the contracts do not know whether their counterparties have adequately protected themselves. If and when defaults occur, some of the counterparties are likely to prove unable to fulfil their obligations. This prospect hangs over the financial markets like a sword of Damocles that is bound to fall, but only after some defaults have occurred.
The biggest problem which all dealers have known about since Day 1 is that there is no way to hedge a CDS."
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/soros-lambasts-paulson-call-for.html
In summary there has been a lot of focus on what is wrong with the US economy and the fear of what if this and that collapsed, but little focus on the main macro international influences that also play a part in driving or turning the USD and consequently the flight for safety in gold.
PS. Probably a lot has to do with what people see in the numbers. As an example, recently US personal income rose a healthy bit but consumer spending didn't rise in proportion. The headlines were doom amd gloom that consumers weren't spending and the economy will get worse because they aren't spending. For me it was a good sign that people were starting to save a bit more which would give them the ability to service their existing debts better and lessen the amount of foreclosures, bankruptcies etc... which would have far stronger positive impact on the direction of the economy/markets than a bit less consumer spending would have a negative effect. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=279044#post279044
Bayern LB(Germany's second largest bank) has just announced writedowns of $6.7b.This should be worth a 1-2% rise in European markets tonight as the bank has come clean.Shares to rise 6-8%?Not joking,if the market follows the script.
But dhukka, you are not getting the point. I've already said the assumption of the business owners was already flawed. The point is not what they thought, but rather an objective assessement (by a third party - conventional wisdom or text book management if you like) of the way they managed their business.
Whether or not the business lasts for 75 years is accedamic for a host of reasons including takeovers, mergers and progress... eg 75 years ago blacksmiths were common, but you will struggle to find one today. Conversely, computer programers and IT companies are everywhere today... 75 years ago they were unheard of.
I've already said the whole objective of most of the 'subsidiary' companies was to bundle up the financial products and pass them on quickly for a quick buck, but the music stopped and some were caught still holding before they were dispersed enough to minimise/spread the risk. They knew the true value and risks and that they could not hold them long term as a sustainable business model.
Yes well, you are hostile to me. Not an enviornment conducive to learning. That is why I highlighted that you will have to discover for yourself... because you have an emotional block to what I say.
On the contrary, I understand your point completely, its just that you don't have a valid one. There has been no objective assessment, just your opinion that mortgage brokers going out of business doesn't constitute real casualties of the credit crunch in which they followed the conventional wisdom that house prices would continue to rise indefintely.
It's precisely because noone knows the true value that we continue to go through this protracted process of price discovery.
That's hilaroius, I'll have to show that to my boss who hired me a couple of years ago as a learning advisor. More likely that you have an emotional block to reality.
Not conventional wisdom, I'm afraid. Certainly not held by everyone. That they followed, rests my case.
But the original mortgage brokers and companies initiating the financial products and the pass the parcel racket certainly knew at the time the mortgages were valued at 100% and then some of valuation and at that point in time were of dubiuous value.
As I said dhukka, my sparring partner mate, you have an emotional block with me. I didn't say or imply anyone else or everyone... your emotionalism misconstrued/misinterpreted what I said.
D & G re jobless claims rising a bit last week, but shouldn't have been too surprising for a little longer yet.
ISM Non-Mfg Survey came in at 52.2, much higher than expected.
I've read this garbled paragraph 4 times and still cannot make out anything coherent. You shouldn't drink and type.
There you go thinking that you're special again, you get no special treatment from me.
Rising jobless claims shouldn't be a surprise but they will be to the plethora of myopic Wall Street economists who can't look past last week's data.
Non manufacturing ISM came in at 49.6. slightly higher than expected. Time to put down the bottle Whiskers.
Remember the stock market went up in the Weimar Republic, and the fastest rising stock market in the world currently is Zimbabwe.
I only gain $1000. The clearing house gives me my margin back and my $1000 out of the other sides margin. I have not lost anything.
Thanks for that little piece of trivia RS.
I wonder what the currency conversion is now?
Ironically if Mugabbe is rolled then it most likely will fall... even though the country will be in (hopefully) better hands.
Keep at it mate... you'll get it soon.
How on earth did you get the idea I was drinking! I rarely drink for your information.
Of course I'm special. There's a book by Bert Weir, You were born specialbeautiful and wonderful - What Happened?. See if you can get hold of a copy for a read.
Yeah dhukka, sure the services sector didn't out perform, but on balance it was more good news. The business activity component rose 1.4 points to 52.2, the second consecutive month of growth and the new orders index increased modestly. A gain is a gain is better than a kick in the pants any day.
There is still a bit of a concern with rising costs. Inventories, employment and deliveries are generally running down. Thats predictable and prudent and will probably turn around sharply when the economy turns out to be in less imminent trouble than wide believed, to build up inventories again.
It would add a twist to it all , better add vodka too though .
I noted Archbishop Desmond Tutu and his rolling comments on Muganybody , stating he should be remembered for the good he did .
I didn't know he'd jumped under a bus .
I think the Archbishops on some good whoopy weed , if not something more colourful .
You are ridiculous, you state in a previous post that the Non Mfg ISM was 52.2. It was not, it was 49.6, that is the headline number. The components were:
Business Activity Index at 52.2%
New Orders Index at 50.2%
Employment Index at 46.9%
Misrepresenting data just erodes your credibility even further.
D & G re jobless claims rising a bit last week, but shouldn't have been too surprising for a little longer yet.
ISM Non-Mfg Survey came in at 52.2, much higher than expected.
Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
ISM Non-Mfg Survey
Consensus - 49
Actual - 52.2
Econoday http://fidweek.econoday.com/reports...facturing_napm/year/2008/yearly/04/index.html
ISM Non-Mfg Survey
Consensus - 49
Actual - 52.2
The business activity index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey surprisingly showed some moderate improvement in February, reaching back up into positive territory at 50.8 from January's 41.9.
New orders posted a similar gain but just falling short of breakeven at 49.5,
SFE Clearing, ASIC and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are co-regulators of the clearing and settlement facility operated by SFE Clearing.
Er hum. This is what I said.
This is what my sources said.Originally Posted by Whiskers
D & G re jobless claims rising a bit last week, but shouldn't have been too surprising for a little longer yet.
ISM Non-Mfg Survey came in at 52.2, much higher than expected.
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