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Imminent and severe market correction

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Blow-off top in world markets - get ready!

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Fund issues dire equities warning

By Robert Orr

Published: April 3 2007 19:09 | Last updated: April 3 2007 19:09

A leading UK fund manager has sold off about half the equities in the portfolios he oversees in anticipation of an imminent and severe market correction.

Ken Murray, the founder and chief executive of Blue Planet Investment Management, has revealed he has offloaded equities and cut the gearing on the firm’s portfolios to zero in the belief a US economic recession is set to wipe more than 20 per cent from the value of global stock markets.

Blue Planet, a specialist investor in the financial sector with $350m of assets under management, operated three of the four best performing financial funds in the UK last year, according to figures from Bloomberg. Its Worldwide Financials fund was the best performing investment trust in the UK and the world over the last three years. About 25 per cent of Blue Planet’s portfolios are now in cash.

Mr Murray warned the impending market correction was likely to be considerably more severe that either of the two most recent downturns that began in February just past and in April last year.

Mr Murray, who began the share sales two weeks ago after the latest downturn, said a consumer spending slowdown was already under way in the US. Combined with rising inflation and a slowdown in corporate earnings, this would drag the world’s largest economy into recession.

“People don’t want to believe bad things will happen but the market will correct very sharply,” he said.

“It is time to get out of the market and I don’t think it would be unreasonable to expect the market to fall by more than 20 per cent in a very short space of time”.

Mr Murray has built a reputation as one of the UK’s most successful investment trust managers. He has combined his role of chairman and chief executive with an active role as an asset allocator via his position of head of investments.

A leading figure in the Scottish financial establishment, Mr Murray founded Blue Planet in 1994. Prior to that, in 1990, he established the Bank of Edinburgh and led the move to consolidate the UK’s fragmented building societies sector.

Bank of Edinburgh bought the Heart of England Building Society before being swallowed up by Scottish Amicable.

Mr Murray said investors could ill afford to ignore warnings from the likes of Alan Greenspan. The former chairman of the Federal Reserve warned earlier this year that the US faced the risk of recession.
 
Oh no, here we go again. I anticipate another round of doomsayers claiming the world is about to implode because the market is toppy and the US housing sector looks ill. This has been going on for some time. Eventually they will be right of course.

I look forward to the bears rampaging across this thread with gusto.

(I have a foot in the bear den atm :) )
 
Blow-off top in world markets - get ready!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fund issues dire equities warning

By Robert Orr

Published: April 3 2007 19:09 | Last updated: April 3 2007 19:09

A leading UK fund manager has sold off about half the equities in the portfolios he oversees in anticipation of an imminent and severe market correction.

Ken Murray, the founder and chief executive of Blue Planet Investment Management, has revealed he has offloaded equities and cut the gearing on the firm’s portfolios to zero in the belief a US economic recession is set to wipe more than 20 per cent from the value of global stock markets.

Blue Planet, a specialist investor in the financial sector with $350m of assets under management, operated three of the four best performing financial funds in the UK last year, according to figures from Bloomberg. Its Worldwide Financials fund was the best performing investment trust in the UK and the world over the last three years. About 25 per cent of Blue Planet’s portfolios are now in cash.

Mr Murray warned the impending market correction was likely to be considerably more severe that either of the two most recent downturns that began in February just past and in April last year.

Mr Murray, who began the share sales two weeks ago after the latest downturn, said a consumer spending slowdown was already under way in the US. Combined with rising inflation and a slowdown in corporate earnings, this would drag the world’s largest economy into recession.

“People don’t want to believe bad things will happen but the market will correct very sharply,” he said.

“It is time to get out of the market and I don’t think it would be unreasonable to expect the market to fall by more than 20 per cent in a very short space of time”.

Mr Murray has built a reputation as one of the UK’s most successful investment trust managers. He has combined his role of chairman and chief executive with an active role as an asset allocator via his position of head of investments.

A leading figure in the Scottish financial establishment, Mr Murray founded Blue Planet in 1994. Prior to that, in 1990, he established the Bank of Edinburgh and led the move to consolidate the UK’s fragmented building societies sector.

Bank of Edinburgh bought the Heart of England Building Society before being swallowed up by Scottish Amicable.

Mr Murray said investors could ill afford to ignore warnings from the likes of Alan Greenspan. The former chairman of the Federal Reserve warned earlier this year that the US faced the risk of recession.

We've been hearing this so much even I got sucked in and have been shorting the market for months.Obviously losing a rather large chunk of my profits for the year :banghead:

Any sane person would be going with the market and not fighting against it.

Bound to crash now ;)
 
You know though, the market just doesn't feel like its doing the bull thing easy? Anyone relate to what i'm saying? It all feels so artificial, not like it the market felt before the Feb slide....before the market seem to move easily, almost fluidly, predictable....now its volitile, very unpredictable.

There are just my thoughts, no analysis, just an observation so don't crucify me ok.

Cheers,
 
People have been saying this for more than a year now.
Nothing new.
Markets will continue to do what they want.
Rather than try to predict (a useless excercise) what will happen, just BE PREPARED for (all scenarios as to) what may happen and have a plan as to how to trade the price action.
 
People have been saying this for more than a year now.
Nothing new.
Markets will continue to do what they want.
Rather than try to predict (a useless excercise) what will happen, just BE PREPARED for (all scenarios as to) what may happen and have a plan as to how to trade the price action.
Can't disagree with that.

Likewise if a bear, be prepared to be long if thats what the market is doing. I don't have one short stock at present... all longs. Doesn't make me a bull, just pragmatic.
 
The crux of the post was that here was obviously a very successful fund manager taking a fairly decisive stance due to fundamentals of the US housing market, which cannot be glossed over by vested interests - it's a timebomb ready to explode with global implications.
I agree with Canaussieuck about the market 'feel', it just doesn't feel right. We are becoming used to daily ranges of up to 50 to 60 points, whipsawing on every bit of news.
On Monday the market tanked because of interest rate fears, Tuesday took the opposite view, Wednesday traded on the fact, so now we have 4 weeks leading to an even higher probability of an increase.
Great for daytraders, but may be hiding a deeper message about global liquidity excesses about to be reigned in in spectacular fashion maybe.

Nizar, I agree also, but I don't have investments anymore, I only do short term trades, the rest in cash. Maybe predict is not the best description, rather trying to ascertain if the global economy is getting better or worse based on the latest data and trends. To me it's turning, only the time scale is unknown.
 
The crux of the post was that here was obviously a very successful fund manager taking a fairly decisive stance due to fundamentals of the US housing market, which cannot be glossed over by vested interests - it's a timebomb ready to explode with global implications.
I agree with Canaussieuck about the market 'feel', it just doesn't feel right. We are becoming used to daily ranges of up to 50 to 60 points, whipsawing on every bit of news.
On Monday the market tanked because of interest rate fears, Tuesday took the opposite view, Wednesday traded on the fact, so now we have 4 weeks leading to an even higher probability of an increase.
Great for daytraders, but may be hiding a deeper message about global liquidity excesses about to be reigned in in spectacular fashion maybe.
Agree with this too.

It must be pointed out as well that large funds are forced to take a much more strategic view. They cannot whip in and out of positions like a private trader.

Hence, if Blue Planet's view is of imminent danger, then they are right to exit. But we here can micromanage.

:2twocents
 
And since they have sold half their stocks, they are bound to tell everyone to try to ensure a correction ensues.
 
The crux of the post was that here was obviously a very successful fund manager
Didn't the article say he was managing $350m. That's not really that much is it? Successful? Is he?

Just amplifying a point that this is just but ONE dude trying to get his name in the paper, touting his OWN analysis. I just wish we could all get an objective and GENERAL opinion on the state of the world/US economy without some (potential) upstart (with lots of shorts on) encouraging punters to sell with articles like this.

I look forward to reading contrary articles over the next few days written by investors who are all long.
 
And since they have sold half their stocks, they are bound to tell everyone to try to ensure a correction ensues.
No different to the bulls ramping the market on bubblevision all day long Knobby:2twocents
 
People have been saying this for more than a year now.
Nothing new.
Markets will continue to do what they want.
Rather than try to predict (a useless excercise) what will happen, just BE PREPARED for (all scenarios as to) what may happen and have a plan as to how to trade the price action.

Laughing out loud Nizar....Ratchet up those stop losses and batten down the hatches. It could be true.:badsmile:
 
I'm piling into oilers, 75% in OEL, CVN and EMR.
One other gold and one iron/gold.

No base metals or uranium as of today:eek:

12 month hold on all

non illigitamus carborundum:cool:
 
Didn't the article say he was managing $350m. That's not really that much is it? Successful? Is he?

Just amplifying a point that this is just but ONE dude trying to get his name in the paper, touting his OWN analysis. I just wish we could all get an objective and GENERAL opinion on the state of the world/US economy without some (potential) upstart (with lots of shorts on) encouraging punters to sell with articles like this.

I look forward to reading contrary articles over the next few days written by investors who are all long.

I'm not sure he's an upstart Kennas -

http://www.blueplanet.eu/blueplanet_investment_trust_uk.184.html

Shorts on? Encouraging punters to sell??
 
I wonder how long it will take for markets to truly forget setbacks that occurred quite recently. More likely that we are going to be hit again and quite soon. Outlook does not look any different from when we had the last slide, imho, and so it's stay with 80%+ cash for the time being.
 
and I know not much more than the difference in a shiraz from the Coonawarra compared to the Hunter.... :)

Love to hear your analysis on this Kennas....maybe in the 'poison' thread?

Cheers,
 
I wonder how long it will take for markets to truly forget setbacks that occurred quite recently. More likely that we are going to be hit again and quite soon. Outlook does not look any different from when we had the last slide, imho, and so it's stay with 80%+ cash for the time being.

Totally, totally, totally agree with you!

Cheers,
 
Well you don't to go to very many extremely well respected Financial Web Sites to see the warning bells ringing out everywhere.

As far as Blue Planet is concerned I'd invest with them purely due to the fact that they have obviously been paying attention enough to see that things could get bad and were prepared to act on what they have seen. As opposed to most other that Funds that mostly just shrug their shoulders and send you a statement with -20% balance plus some fees on it.
 
I am one to listen to the price and not other onions, no matter how good there evidence is until I see it I wont act on it or agree with it.

But I agree with this and I also believe in what a few other members are saying.

There is a mayor possibility that we will see a massive correction and soon.

I have attached a chart of the XAO monthy time frame.

You can all see it for yourself if you believe in anything Gann has taught.

Now from what i know about Fan if the price is above the 45 degree line it is bullish.

Gann said that the perfect harmony between price and time is 45 degrees and when price moves away from that angle it's unstable and will return to it.

Our market is way off that line and has no real correction on a monthly chart!

So for a healthy retracment of 33 - 36% is a return to around 5000 or little under.

That is something to think about and with the fundamental of what UF posted about the weak US economy, it does line up with what a healthy trend should do.

Will it be the end of our history breaking bull market? I hope not, just a healthy correction that we need!:)

SEE ATTACHED PDF

Gann followers please tell me if I am wrong.:)
 

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