Realist
Billie Jean is not my lover
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I'm gonna make a Motza today - the Bull is rampaging!
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Sean K
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Good work guys.
Don't get too cocky!!!
Don't get too cocky!!!
Realist
Billie Jean is not my lover
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Only red share I have is Bluescope.... that has done me well the past 3 months I can't complain!!
Sean K
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Well, for the record I'm 8K up this am, but still about 50K down from 6 weeks ago.
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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kennas said:Well, for the record I'm 8K up this am, but still about 50K down from 6 weeks ago.
Yep i think the strategy this time, is Reduce/Sell as it gets higher
thx
MS
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There seems to be mega optimism on this thread.
Persoanlly I think this rally will persist until 4th July. The 5195Pt level is critical for the continuation of this rally. A failure to close above this level and my bull horns are going to be mouunted on the wall for a kiss goodbye to this rally. A close above this level and the horns stay on for the time being only.
Cheers
Persoanlly I think this rally will persist until 4th July. The 5195Pt level is critical for the continuation of this rally. A failure to close above this level and my bull horns are going to be mouunted on the wall for a kiss goodbye to this rally. A close above this level and the horns stay on for the time being only.
Cheers
Realist
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What year
I reckon 2019..
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No Jet,
It's 3/4 the range of the entire move down. In my experience, statistically this has acted a key resistance level for countertrends where bull hopes are rekindled. This is just an observation and not trading advice.
Although this is not good to be used in isolation but with other tools to validate the probability of it occuring. Have attached two instances of late in Gold and AUDUSD where this made good shorts
Cheers
It's 3/4 the range of the entire move down. In my experience, statistically this has acted a key resistance level for countertrends where bull hopes are rekindled. This is just an observation and not trading advice.
Although this is not good to be used in isolation but with other tools to validate the probability of it occuring. Have attached two instances of late in Gold and AUDUSD where this made good shorts
Cheers
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Wavepicker,
Mr Dow from 100 years ago would agree with you. I have been rereading some of his theory this morning and as they say the more things change ....
I think that Dow theory would be good for all of the fundamental traders out there. Even though it is slightly technical it doesn't predict but tells you when you are in a Bull/Bear market correction etc, and has been proven to add a few percentage points a year to the buy and hold type investors by saying when to go to cash and when to buy in.
My interpretation of what has happened. A secondary movement (correction) goes from 1/3rd to 2/3rds of the last primary movement (The last thrust from 4800 to the last high). As the correction went back to 4800 this means that we are not in a bull market.
However, we aren't in a bear market either as we haven't broken through 4800 either.
Although like Elliot there are cycles in cycles. If you say the start of the current bull market is 1980 rather than 2003 then this last movement down is not even large enough to be called a secondary movement as the last primary thrust was 3000 points.
Mr Dow from 100 years ago would agree with you. I have been rereading some of his theory this morning and as they say the more things change ....
I think that Dow theory would be good for all of the fundamental traders out there. Even though it is slightly technical it doesn't predict but tells you when you are in a Bull/Bear market correction etc, and has been proven to add a few percentage points a year to the buy and hold type investors by saying when to go to cash and when to buy in.
My interpretation of what has happened. A secondary movement (correction) goes from 1/3rd to 2/3rds of the last primary movement (The last thrust from 4800 to the last high). As the correction went back to 4800 this means that we are not in a bull market.
However, we aren't in a bear market either as we haven't broken through 4800 either.
Although like Elliot there are cycles in cycles. If you say the start of the current bull market is 1980 rather than 2003 then this last movement down is not even large enough to be called a secondary movement as the last primary thrust was 3000 points.
Realist
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I disagree..
Any buy and hold investor who sells because of some old technical theory is a fool.
Tax and Brokerage would reduce any gains (or avoidance of losses), if there were any.
It can't predict war breaking out, a huge uranium find in Olympic Dam, interest rates for home owners, Chinese govt policy, governments compulsory superannuation, or a hurricane taking out US oil. These things are in the hands of the gods - not in some old theory.
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Realist said:
What people want to believe without investigating is up to themselves *shrug*. It's always warm in our comfort zones.
MIT
Realist
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Like any stockmarket theory it can not work for the general public because once too many people know about it and use it, it immediately becomes redundant.
The stock market is based on emotion not science.
No-one has ever or will ever consistently pick which way it is going.
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... and Dow theory was first propounded 100 years ago and was originally published in one of the largest papers in America (the NYTimes) so I assume that its time is up
MIT
MIT
Realist
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It is like Astrology - some people will always believe it. No matter what facts are put in front of them.
Please advise what the Dow theory says about now - should I buy or sell BHP next week?
professor_frink
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Realist said:
Realist I've heard of dow theory but never really looked at it closely. What facts are you referring to?
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Realist said:
... I'll second that, what facts?
Here are some about the use of the Dow theory:
http://viking.som.yale.edu/will/dow/dowpage.html
From Yale, not a university usually associated with astrology.
.. The theory would probably say to not buy it, if you don't have it already.
MIT
Realist
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"From 1938 on the Dow theory operated mainly by taking its practicioners out at a pretty good price but then putting them back in again at a higher price. For nearly 30 years thereafter, one would have done appreciably better by just buying and holding the DJIA"
Ben Graham, Intelligent Investor page 191
However...
He admitted up to 1938 it did infact work. And took people out 1 month before the biggest crash of all in 1929 and kept them out till the bear run was over.
The fact is, as soon as Wall St. recognised and accepted the Dow theory it then did not work. Which is no coincidence. If everybody worked out petrol was alot cheaper on a Monday - everybody would start buying on a Monday, eventually service stations would cotton on, stop discounting on Mondays to make some money, and discount on other days to get buyers to come to their empty stations. Thus Monday is no longer the cheapest.
To succeed on Wall St you need to do what others aren't.
Ben Graham, Intelligent Investor page 191
However...
He admitted up to 1938 it did infact work. And took people out 1 month before the biggest crash of all in 1929 and kept them out till the bear run was over.
The fact is, as soon as Wall St. recognised and accepted the Dow theory it then did not work. Which is no coincidence. If everybody worked out petrol was alot cheaper on a Monday - everybody would start buying on a Monday, eventually service stations would cotton on, stop discounting on Mondays to make some money, and discount on other days to get buyers to come to their empty stations. Thus Monday is no longer the cheapest.
To succeed on Wall St you need to do what others aren't.
