Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

IEL - IDP Education

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Market Matters afternoon report:
  • IDP Education (IDP) -7.44% said they expect international education student volumes in the markets they operate to fall 20-25% in the year ahead.
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Market Matters view on IEL:
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IDP Education (IEL) $13.69
The International student placement and English testing company has come back a long way from the lofty heights of 2021 when shares were trading above $40, with the stock testing 4-year lows following commentary at their AGM yesterday.
CEO Tennealle O’Shannessy said “We anticipate international education student volumes in our markets will decline 20-25% in the year ahead,”. That’s a significant headwind, and it’s understandable that the stock continues to slide. Tennealle took the reins at IDP in February 2023 when the stock was trading at $32, so it’s been a tough ride so far. That was also true at her last gig as the CEO of Adore Beauty (ABY) with the stock listing at $6.70 in October of 2020, trading around $1 at her departure.
While the performance record of a CEO is always important from a shareholder perspective, the fate of IEL for now at least is being dictated by the restrictive policies in key markets, including Australia, the UK and Canada. Unfortunately, the headwinds here are not new, and have persisted for several years. However, the market was looking for a base in earnings in FY25, providing a platform for growth to return in FY26. We now expect further deterioration in FY25, with the recovery in outer years coming from a lower base.
  • IEL is still trading on a growth multiple of ~30x, and while we’re confident things will turn at some point, the headwinds over the coming 12-months remain in play, and we expect IEL to remain under pressure.
IEL​
MM is neutral/bearish IEL
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IDP Education (IEL)
LAST UPDATED 16/10/2024 09:01​
 
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