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Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

I've been buying more FWL, I can't wait for JORC and PFS,

Am surprised that I've been able to buy so much more around the 33c level

Any other ASF'ers buying?
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

YOUNG_TRADER said:
I've been buying more FWL, I can't wait for JORC and PFS,

Am surprised that I've been able to buy so much more around the 33c level

Any other ASF'ers buying?
Click to expand...

I was thinking about the options YT...can you tell me what the excercise price please? Am I correct in thinking expiry is in 3 years. I already hold heads.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

I have an order in for the options. Yes, 3 year expiry which is very long, and a 25c ex price. I do like the fact that this one is very very tightly held. When the next announcement comes it has a very good potential to rocket very quickly as it did last week.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Hmm the opies are 25c exercise so at 35c they should be 10c but they have 3yrs to expire so thats probably why they're at 16c-18c

I intially bought options at 10c but at these levels I'm buying stock, was lucky enough to grab 120k on friday at an avg of 33.5c

Also got 100k at 30c on Thursday

I'm gonna try and get more at 33c/34c it looks like support,

I firmly believe this could be 60c+ based on my analysis once the PFS comes out,

As an exmaple check out Reward, RWD, company came out with a PFS showing Net Profit of $25m a yr for 100yrs, mkt cap has risen from $10m to $60m as a result of PFS and its deposit is Potash!

vs FWL who should have a PFS with an EBITDA of $75-$85m p.a. for 30yrs (intially) with Iron Ore/Pig Iron, I expect mkt to give FWL a mkt cap = 0.5 - 1 yr of the 30yrs EBITDA = 60c - $1

Be interesting to see how market reacts to the JORC when it comes out
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

YT, come two weeks everyone will look back and say geez, those shares were a "steel" or maybe they wont...

Ok bad jokes back in the closet, basically at the moment we're just waiting for Kobe to take a look at the concentrate and see if it plays nice with itMK3.

Brett Manning isn't the most exciting MD out there, but looks like he knows how to get the job done.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

YOUNG_TRADER said:
I've been buying more FWL, I can't wait for JORC and PFS,

Am surprised that I've been able to buy so much more around the 33c level

Any other ASF'ers buying?
Click to expand...

Looks good. Good research too YT. I'll read further into this one tonight. Based off all your figures etc it definately looks like its worth a buy..with news pending.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

YT, It's hard for me to make anything out of this at the moment. The pullback was inevitable I think after such a huge jump. Short termers were going to get out of it with a nice gain and go straight to the pub. The indicators said way overbought too. There's no decent S&R lines on this. Maybe the highs at 32/33 cents back in Jan/Feb but that's stretching it. Not enough volume to provide any real validity either perhaps. The last 2 days doji's indicate indicision between the bulls and bears, but perhaps the decreased volume while the stock came off indicates there's fewer sellers trying to get out. Or, fewer buyers chasing the stock. By definition a single doji in a pullback supposed to be a moderate indication of a potential reversal, but requires a strong follow up day for confirmation. So, two doji's? And is it an 'uptrend'? More a single spike perhaps. If the last 2 doji's were inside the real body of the big red candle, then you'd be looking at a high probability of a reversal, especially since it's formed a pretty clear pole and pennant, however these formations usually take a few days to weeks to materialise. After 3 days? Needs more of a wind up to have the energy to break strongly I feel. If it was a true pennant then the price target from a break from the formation is the length of the pole, but that just seems unrealistic in the short term. (although it probably gets close to your valuation)

So, in summary, I have no idea.

I think it'll be driven by the announcements, and short termers scalping it, and there's not enough on the chart for me to work with. I'm just a jube. Sorry. I think your fundamentals might be more relevant at the moment.

Any other views?
 

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Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Up to 44.5c now sell side so so thin, thats what happens when top 20 hold 80%, buy side, get this, opened at 36c now theres 1Million on the buy above 36c!

I think its insiders buying pre JORC, news has definately leaked, it has to have, else why the charge today?
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

yup - this one definitely gets a gold star from me for the potential breakout thread.

9 sellers now so its padding a bit, but looking real bullish.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited


YT maybe you're underestimating yourself...you've got a fanclub on HC,..and I reckon quite a few HCers have joined ASF in the last couple of days.

Didn't get a chance to pick up those options in the end. Oh well ..it happens
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Well Kennas and aaronphetamine, looks like your comments re the doji where spot on!

I can't believe the buying strength today, amazing, simply amazing, I'm going to go and have a look at HotCopper to see if its just them but I doubt it, volumes and buys are way up, way way up

I think its insiders, what do you guys reckon?
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

hahaha HC is a joke half those guys just want someone to listen to their BS to stroke their ego's.

Does anyone have an idea of when we can expect the resource upgrade they have been drilling for a while now.

I couldn't help but grab a small parcel at 45 was gonna buy yesterday but funds all tied up
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited


Had a buy on open bid in for 35c but it opened at 36c so checking it now im gutted! I personally think its just people reading these forums. Im not buying at 45c but will leave my buy in there in case it dips! Thanks YT and good luck.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited


Any idea when the report is gonna come out? this very well be insider buyer, pushed up the SP, and the rest of the market js followed on. the sellers r drying up is a good sign, definately the big players r holding on their shares for the ann.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

KIWIKARLOS said:
Does anyone have an idea of when we can expect the resource upgrade they have been drilling for a while now.
Click to expand...

UPKA said:
Any idea when the report is gonna come out?
Click to expand...

Read my posts and you won't have to ask,


djones said:
Im not buying at 45c but will leave my buy in there in case it dips!
Click to expand...

Good luck jones'y by the looks of it its not going below 38c, look at the buy depth!

I've got an order up at 41c 70k only, mind you I have been buying on the way up so my avg is probably 33c, Am happy I managed to get another 200k last week at 33c avg
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Been watching this myself.

Plenty of sellers now as of 3:30. I wonder if they were the ones that bought earlier.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

a few sellers, then the buyers piled in. A very good finish so far, and the close is looking even stronger. I amended my buy order for the options this morning and bought (thank god). I look forward to the announcement.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

juw177 said:
Been watching this myself.

Plenty of sellers now as of 3:30. I wonder if they were the ones that bought earlier.
Click to expand...

Plenty of sellers?

I think I need to put something in perspective here,

There's 55m shares on issue, of which the top 20 hold probably 44m which leaves 11m left for the mkt,

The stock opened at 36c, theres now 1m buying above that level, on the other side of the equation theres probably 180k selling from 50c down,

So theres plenty of buyers and some sellers, that being said I'd expect FWL to retrace to the low 40's but given that the JORC is due out anytime now, who knows,

All needs to be taken in perspective I suppose, it has run really really hard, I am amazed at today to be honest! absolutely amazed!
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

YT. I like the analysis.

2 questions tho:

1. where did you get the EBITDA figures from?


2. during RWD's period of performance, was there something taking place in the market that gave buoyancy to the price that it may not be now? My point is that the all ords rallied hard in March buoyed by post feb 28 optimism. I would argue that we are in a period of reduce exuberance/appetite and increasing bond yields.... would this affect your 60c share price?



 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited



Answers
Qu 1. Search through the thread, I've doen them twice and so has another memeber who confirmed them!

Qu 2. The mkt doesn't get much more exhuberant than this, FWL has run from 20c to 45c in a week!

Also RWD had no presentations was word of mouth from what I understand and the main point is their deposit/project is Potash, does anyone even know what that is? Its a type of agricultural fertiliser

FWL's is Iron Ore/Steel/Pig Iron, mkt knows what that is
 
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