ICU - Investor Centre

[jammin]

Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

From the sounds of things (FWL) sounds like a great opportunity. Thanks for the fundamental opinions on this one. From a chart perspective I am waiting for a break of the bullish triangle pattern before I enter, probably at around 75c.

Lachlan, I also like this consolidation. Just wondering about your entry signal. You mention entry at around 75c, do you also look for a close above the upper line of the triangle to confirm the breakout? From an EW viewpoint FWL may also be commencing a minor 3rd wave. I will post a chart tonight.
Thanks for the F/A input YT. Many fellow ASF members have recommended that I include some F/A in my trading decisions (which to date have been pure chart plays using SP and volume only). That extra info does give me greater confidence when trying to figure the possible reward from the trade.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Lachlan, I also like this consolidation. Just wondering about your entry signal. You mention entry at around 75c, do you also look for a close above the upper line of the triangle to confirm the breakout? From an EW viewpoint FWL may also be commencing a minor 3rd wave. I will post a chart tonight.
Thanks for the F/A input YT. Many fellow ASF members have recommended that I include some F/A in my trading decisions (which to date have been pure chart plays using SP and volume only). That extra info does give me greater confidence when trying to figure the possible reward from the trade.

I agree I looked at the chart and it looks to be consolidating for a second move,

Also the buy depth has increased substantially today, I wonder whats up? After seeing CUL I have no doubt that insider trading is rife in the ASX


Well 11 Trading days to go until PFS,

I can't wait, especially when FWL appears to be trading at less than 1 yr of 30 yrs of EBIT!

 

[Pommiegranite]

Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

I agree I looked at the chart and it looks to be consolidating for a second move,

Also the buy depth has increased substantially today, I wonder whats up? After seeing CUL I have no doubt that insider trading is rife in the ASX


Well 11 Trading days to go until PFS,

I can't wait, especially when FWL appears to be trading at less than 1 yr of 30 yrs of EBIT!

or is it 1 year of 45 yrs of EBIT? OR is it 1 year of 100 years of EBIT?

YT....good to see you are very conservative with your figures. I guess after PFS, FWL will want to drill the whole of the 27k strike length.

 

[serendip]

Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

A sample of ore from Yalgoo was sent to Kobe Steel, for testing as to its suitability for use with the ITmk3 rotary hearth process, about three weeks ago.

Have you heard whether results from this test are likely to be available in time for incorporation into the Pre-Feasibility Study? An OK on this score would be a tremendous boost, by reducing the largest single risk facing the project.

Cheers, Serendip

 

[UPKA]

Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Looks positive today, lots of buyers building up, managed to topped up a lil over the last few days when it went south a lil.

And yes the results of the sample testing is important too, bt the MD was rather optimistic abt it, so i think it wont be too bad.

 

[Pommiegranite]

Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

A sample of ore from Yalgoo was sent to Kobe Steel, for testing as to its suitability for use with the ITmk3 rotary hearth process, about three weeks ago.

Have you heard whether results from this test are likely to be available in time for incorporation into the Pre-Feasibility Study? An OK on this score would be a tremendous boost, by reducing the largest single risk facing the project.

Cheers, Serendip

Hey Serendip,

I have no idea about this. You could email Brett Manning. There is a contact form on the website.

He seems to be a very approachable person and has replied to me previously in great detail in super quick time.

 

[serendip]

Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Thanks for the suggestion, PG. I decided to just call, spoke to Daniel Bredenkamp (Co. Sec.), who was positive and direct. He understands that the test process is lengthy, and that no results are expected for another two months or so, which obviously means around end-September.

Although the first commercial plant will be that for Cleveland Cliffs, a quick search of the literature suggests that ITmk3, and its related predecessor processes (Midrex and FASTMET) have been under development for a number of years, and the technology is well-understood.

Mr Bredenkamp also confirmed that applications for additional leases, covering extensions of the orebody to both the north and the south, have been lodged, and are awaiting approval from the WA Mines Department.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

I agree I looked at the chart and it looks to be consolidating for a second move,

Also the buy depth has increased substantially today, I wonder whats up? After seeing CUL I have no doubt that insider trading is rife in the ASX


Well 11 Trading days to go until PFS,

I can't wait, especially when FWL appears to be trading at less than 1 yr of 30 yrs of EBIT!

From the look of things the buyers are competeting to get in and this maybe moving up, maybe, I'm no techie, but I think 70c was important, but I also think 75c and 80c will be important,

Techies, what do you see as the breakout/turnaround level?

From the sounds of things (FWL) sounds like a great opportunity. Thanks for the fundamental opinions on this one. From a chart perspective I am waiting for a break of the bullish triangle pattern before I enter, probably at around 75c. This pattern is very bullish after a strong rise in price and especially when supported by low volume which is the case. Watching and waiting.

 

[Pommiegranite]

Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Thanks for the suggestion, PG. I decided to just call, spoke to Daniel Bredenkamp (Co. Sec.), who was positive and direct. He understands that the test process is lengthy, and that no results are expected for another two months or so, which obviously means around end-September.

Although the first commercial plant will be that for Cleveland Cliffs, a quick search of the literature suggests that ITmk3, and its related predecessor processes (Midrex and FASTMET) have been under development for a number of years, and the technology is well-understood.

Mr Bredenkamp also confirmed that applications for additional leases, covering extensions of the orebody to both the north and the south, have been lodged, and are awaiting approval from the WA Mines Department.

Good work Serendip...adding to the researched intellectual value of this thread

YT...wish I could help you with the charts.....but I do think we will see a big run up before PFS...which could still be 2 weeks away

 

[Sean K]

Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Techies, what do you see as the breakout/turnaround level?

I remember reading somewhere that from these types of formations the distance of the widest part of the triangle is the projected target. I'll try and find a reference, but until then anyone can shoot me down!

(probabilities, not certainties )

(that's only if it breaks up, too)

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

I remember reading somewhere that from these types of formations the distance of the widest part of the triangle is the projected target. I'll try and find a reference, but until then anyone can shoot me down!

(probabilities, not certainties )

(that's only if it breaks up, too)

Hey Kennarico,

What a ramp, thats a blatent ramp, I say ban! Ban him! lol you did say "but until then anyone can shoot me down! " lol :

Thanks for the chart, so 75c looks to be the important level and we are sort paused here to, interesting ... ... especially since that target of 95c is near previous intra day high, what do you make of that?

 

[jammin]

Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Thanks for the chart, so 75c looks to be the important level and we are sort paused here to, interesting ... ... especially since that target of 95c is near previous intra day high, what do you make of that?

YT, 75c was my next pyramid point on my trading plan, as the SP passes the previous high of the 6th July. Then I am waiting for 93c to be passed.
Damn, that 50k order at .75c, on the sell side is slowing the SP rise.
I will have another vallium and meditate on the art of patience.

 

[UPKA]

Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

YT, 75c was my next pyramid point on my trading plan, as the SP passes the previous high of the 6th July. Then I am waiting for 93c to be passed.
Damn, that 50k order at .75c, on the sell side is slowing the SP rise.
I will have another vallium and meditate on the art of patience.

overall, i think most ppl r holding, everyone knows that the PFS is coming out in matter of weeks or even days, so hardly anyone selling. i think there will be alot of dumping when PFS is released, so better to get in position early.

 

[Sean K]

Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Hey Kennarico,

What a ramp, thats a blatent ramp, I say ban! Ban him! lol you did say "but until then anyone can shoot me down! " lol :

Thanks for the chart, so 75c looks to be the important level and we are sort paused here to, interesting ... ... especially since that target of 95c is near previous intra day high, what do you make of that?

Here's the background to an ascending triangle:

Ascending Triangle (Continuation)

The ascending triangle is a bullish formation that usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when ascending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of a downtrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, ascending triangles are bullish patterns that indicate accumulation.

Because of its shape, the pattern can also be referred to as a right-angle triangle. Two or more equal highs form a horizontal line at the top. Two or more rising troughs form an ascending trend line that converges on the horizontal line as it rises. If both lines were extended right, the ascending trend line could act as the hypotenuse of a right triangle. If a perpendicular line were drawn extending down from the left end of the horizontal line, a right triangle would form. Let's examine each individual part of the pattern and then look at an example.

Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. However, because the ascending triangle is a bullish pattern, the length and duration of the current trend is not as important as the robustness of the formation, which is paramount.
Top Horizontal Line: At least 2 reaction high reaction highs are required to form the top horizontal line. The highs do not have to be exact, but they should be within reasonable proximity of each other. There should be some distance between the highs, and a reaction low between them.
Lower Ascending Trend Line: At least two reaction lows are required to form the lower ascending trend line. These reaction lows should be successively higher, and there should be some distance between the lows. If a more recent reaction low is equal to or less than the previous reaction low, then the ascending triangle is not valid.
Duration: The length of the pattern can range from a few weeks to many months with the average pattern lasting from 1-3 months.
Volume: As the pattern develops, volume usually contracts. When the upside breakout occurs, there should be an expansion of volume to confirm the breakout. While volume confirmation is preferred, it is not always necessary.
Return to Breakout: A basic tenet of technical analysis is that resistance turns into support and vice versa. When the horizontal resistance line of the ascending triangle is broken, it turns into support. Sometimes there will be a return to this support level before the move begins in earnest.
Target: Once the breakout has occurred, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the pattern and applying it to the resistance breakout.

That's not to say that this is the perfect ascending triangle, or even if a breakout will occur. It's probably too short a time frame, and too many day traders in and out. (sorry if you disagree Niz

My tip is it will crash now.

However, recently, I seem to be getting it right. Or, the charts are getting it right.

 

[jammin]

Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

i think there will be alot of dumping when PFS is released, so better to get in position early.

Upka, I also believe the saying "buy the rumor, sell the fact". Though, on a quick review, I am not seeing any short term correlation between the SP surges and release of announcements for FWL. You make a good point though. I will be watching/preparing for the SP to drop post announcement.

 

[Fool]

Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

hey guys, does it look like someone is capping it at 75cent to accumulate ?
seem to be some large orders that have been changing alot to day, any thoughts??

 

[Pommiegranite]

Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

hey guys, does it look like someone is capping it at 75cent to accumulate ?
seem to be some large orders that have been changing alot to day, any thoughts??

I don't know about that.

There's more showing on the buy side above 70c than there is on the sell side below $1.

It would take a lot more than 96k to cap this stock.

 

[UPKA]

Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

ok the some js took out about 100k shares, so definately no capping, js lots of accumulation. the rate this is going, looks like the FPS is js around the corner!

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Many on here are talking of a buy the rumour sell the fact situation, however after talking with my broker I on't believe this is so for the following reasons,

If we compare FWL to its 3 peers, AXO, IDO and GRR again


FWL
Share Structure 55m shares + 30m 25c 1/6/2010 Options
Mkt Cap @75c = $41.25m undiluted or $63.75m fully diluted

Project
NPV = $1 Billion based on EBIT of $75m p.a. for 30yrs

CAP EX = $330m including a 20% blow out

Infrastructure = Excellent on the main highway to the main Gerladton Port, major gas pipeline runs through the deposit, town of Yalgoo only 14kms down the major highway

Ore = Good although low grade, its coarse and testing has shown "This sample produced a very good iron recovery coupled with a low silica return at a coarse (and therefore cost effective) grind size"


IDO
Share Structure 80m shares

Mkt Cap @$1.25c = $100m fully diluted

Project 70% Only
NPV = $800m Pig Iron like FWL!

CAP EX = $750m

Infrastructure = Poor Its in Indonesia, and given huge Cap Ex I'd say Poor!

Ore = Poor Its an Iron SANDS deposit grading 10% Fe so will be difficult IMO to beneficate etc



AXO
Share Structure 172m shares + conv notes + 11m 20c 20/10/2007 + 16m in the money unlisted opies

Mkt Cap @$1.30c = $225m undiluted or $260m fully diluted

Project
NPV = $500m Ferro Vanadium production

CAP EX = $500m

Infrastructure = Avg requires alot of Infra

Ore = Good for Vanadium production, but unsure how easy it will be to produce Ferro Vandium




GRR
Share Structure 110m shares

Mkt Cap @$2.50 = $240m fully diluted

Project70% Only
NPV = Could be huge $2Billion ? Iron Pelletss

CAP EX = $1.5Billion

Infrastructure = Poor needs to build power plant, then build power lines, needs to build a slurry pipe line that goes 100kms, needs to dredge the port to make it deep water etc, clearly alot of work here, but rewards could be exceptional

Ore = Excellent for Iron Pellet production, the high grade ore keeps operating costs down




So the point I'm trying to make, is aguably GRR is the most advanced and most likely to get into production the soonest, IDO seems risky and requires a large CAP EX, AXO seems cheap when compared to PMA and GRR but I don't know what the operationl risk is with beneficating Ferro Vanadium,

But now AXO has also been repriced,


Bottom line is that FWL even at these levels seems undervalued at $60m, the peer comparison suggested $50m to begin with which it has now convincily held, but I still think given the PFS expected EBIT of $75m p.a. for 30yrs-50yrs this should hit that $100m mkt cap = $1.20

Thoughts?

 

[Pommiegranite]

Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

YT, undoubtedly there will be some profit taking...such as your sell order of 250,000 options at 0.99c



...and as Serendip found out, the potential is relatively untapped. So if there is any retracement after PFS, on the long term chart, it ill appear as the tiniest of blips.

"Mr Bredenkamp also confirmed that applications for additional leases, covering extensions of the orebody to both the north and the south, have been lodged, and are awaiting approval from the WA Mines Department."