IBG - Ironbark Zinc

[Sean K]

Sorry for being a Debbie Downer here. This is another project I can't ever see happening. I only know of one other Aussie tie-up with the import/export bank and that was Newsat... And that didn't exactly turnout very well.

Here are my thoughts on why this is a dud of a project:

• In arguably the most remote part of the world:
  • No 'Just drive to to Kal this morning and pick up that part we need'
  • The inventory they would need to hold to ensure no supply chain risk would be rather high.
  • No local community - so where does the workforce come from? Expats can go to Asia and Africa with the typical expat 'trappings' available there and it's not cold.
  • UG mining costs of $25/tonne USD?? Is that real? For example BGL is forecasting $86/tonne AUD... Not quite apples to apples but again, see above. Operating in the arctic is not going to be cheap.
• 15% IRR....And nearly a billion AUD in capex.
  • Razor thin margin in my opinion for a high risk project. If it was 10 minutes outside of Port Hedland or Kalgoorlie it would be different.
  • Mainly underground mining at around 5.0% zinc? look at all the other zinc mines in the world. I believe they are all much higher grades/margin per tonne. In 5 minutes on google I found the following:
    • Dugald River = 12%
    • Golden Grove = 4% (also have 1g/t gold, 1+ oz/t silver, 1% copper - which I think ends up as nearly 10% ZnEq)
    • Red Dog = 15% + 4% lead (also in arctic but open pit)
    • Rampura = 14%
    • Mcarthur River = 8% (and 4.4% lead and 2oz/t silver)

All very good points TT, but there's probably an argument to be made for this to be viable. I'm sure part of the plan is to build and camp and have FIFO (or BIBO) workers. Low IRR and big capex but it's a 20 year LOM and EXIM will just about cover Capex. Are there other zinc mines mining 4.5% Zn? With zinc going up and up that should change the overall financials as well.

Updated presentation here.

The company have finally provided some clearer guidance on the EXIM process and it's much longer than most have anticipated. It looks like there's not going to be a final decision until about November! ? ? ?

 

[The Triangle]

All very good points TT, but there's probably an argument to be made for this to be viable. I'm sure part of the plan is to build and camp and have FIFO (or BIBO) workers. Low IRR and big capex but it's a 20 year LOM and EXIM will just about cover Capex. Are there other zinc mines mining 4.5% Zn? With zinc going up and up that should change the overall financials as well.

Updated presentation here.

The company have finally provided some clearer guidance on the EXIM process and it's much longer than most have anticipated. It looks like there's not going to be a final decision until about November! ? ? ?

View attachment 139323
View attachment 139324

I'm sure it can be viable. If someone wanted to fund this project right now, I'm sure they could and it would make positive cashflow each year. But I personally suspect that the operation would struggle to pay back the initial capital outlay.

With EXIM involved one hopes the US have a strategic interest in Greenland and are happy to develop something there with no anticipation of actually making money.

I think by that time the funding is sorted out the cost estimates are going to be well out of date. Zinc prices might be up, but so are/will be the costs associated with building and operating a mine. EXIM would probably lean towards forcing a public company to keep diluting shareholders to keep the funding flowing. That's where our mates at places like Glencore and Trafalgar get involved. They are just as interested in the control of the saleable product as they are the value of their shares.

 

[Sean K]

While we've got a long wait for a decision on the EXIM, this latest news gives me some confidence that it's actually going to happen.

In the Fin:

IBG not mentioned, but these ones were:

Australian companies that stand to gain include Iluka, Australian Strategic Minerals, Cobalt Blue, Lynas, RZ Resources and VHM. Lithium company Ioneer is seeking funding from the US Department of Energy of about $US500 million ($665.9 million) and is currently in a due diligence process.

 

[frugal.rock]

Have been keeping tabs on zinc price. POZ
If the volumes shown on this monthly chart are correct, I would think supply is quite tight and probably will be for a while.
I know a stack of the biggest zinc mines closed because of covid (info found in NCZ reports) but not sure where there at now?
(NCZ was one of the top 10 biggest mines to stay open)

GGG recently had issues in Greenland. I believe a change of politics rendered their proposed (uranium or ree?) mining plan go be dumped.
I don't see zinc as controversial though.
If IBG SP isn't up near 10 cent by the end of the year, I'm a monkeys uncle. ???
Not held, but have noticed it ranging lately, which usually indicates to me that its likely off to the races at some point.
Some news flow expected in April by looks of it.

 

[Sean K]

Have been keeping tabs on zinc price. POZ
If the volumes shown on this monthly chart are correct, I would think supply is quite tight and probably will be for a while.
I know a stack of the biggest zinc mines closed because of covid (info found in NCZ reports) but not sure where there at now?
(NCZ was one of the top 10 biggest mines to stay open)

View attachment 139918

GGG recently had issues in Greenland. I believe a change of politics rendered their proposed (uranium or ree?) mining plan go be dumped.
I don't see zinc as controversial though.
If IBG SP isn't up near 10 cent by the end of the year, I'm a monkeys uncle. ???
Not held, but have noticed it ranging lately, which usually indicates to me that its likely off to the races at some point.
Some news flow expected in April by looks of it.

View attachment 139917

Yep, zinc has been running, but I think this may have responded to the loans being dished out for critical minerals and these guys are in the queue.

I was a bit concerned with the break through the support zone, but it seems to have recovered.

Should be an update on the EXIM process this month.

 

[Sean K]

I'm going to be in a nursing home by the time this EXIM process is finalised. Would be nice if they had have put out a detailed schedule of milestones when this process started up to mining. Maybe the US just work to their own schedule and can't put timeframes on completion of Phase 1,2,3,4,5 or however many phases there are.

 

[Sean K]

More delays in making a decision due to wars and diseases and whatnot. Stretching into 2023. I'll be out of the nursing home and into a hole by the time they get this finance sorted. If I needed the cash I'd be putting my dollars to use elsewhere as this is like watching paint dry.

 

[Sean K]

I watched the MD's Webinar tonight to explain the delays and market conditions for IBG's Citronen Project and it was a very sobering presentation. This isn't getting financed any time soon from what I heard. If at all.

 

[Sean K]

I thought this was going to go bankrupt. Still might.

$600K? That'll keep the lights on I guess. Just. Or, the MD could buy a nice new car with it.