I have given up buying a house

[crackaton]

Sounds exactly like Tasmania a 3 years ago. There was an outright buying frenzy in mid-2003 in Hobart and to a lesser extent other parts of the state. The "for sale" boards were going up with "sold" already on them and it was hard to get away from hearing real estate this, real estate that and more real estate.

3 years later and house prices in Hobart are now falling, especially if you're comparing prices for the same house rather than an "average" house which, due to renovations etc, has increased in quality over that time (but even then prices are falling slightly).

After the boom comes the bust. Not a problem for home owners not wanting to be net sellers of property but for first home buyers paying less and saving interest in the meantime is a definate advantage IMO.

Note that in all of this I am NOT wishing bad luck on real estate investors or for that matter anyone else. I'm just observing where I think the market is heading and it's not up.

What gets me are all the people saying sour grapes to those negative about property. People like this live in a world of their own and frankly I hope they get burnt big time.

 

[Realist]

I'm on the verge of giving up buying a house in Perth. Whilst east coast real estate might be in a funk, the market is crazy here. Like freaking scary crazy.

Houses are being sold within hours of being listed, the land developers have been forced to use bingo wheels to decide who out of the 100 buyers that rocked up will get the 10 lots on offer...just unbelievable. Median prices are increasing at around $10k a month.

Its got to slow sometime, but even when it does, the recent boom has pretty much priced me out of the market.
Hell even if I could afford a decent place I probably won't buy it because its too sickening to pay more than double what the property was worth 3 years ago.

Contrary to the renters here, I think decent residential, developed land close to infrastructure is going the way oil has.
I view decent real estate as an increasingly scarce commodity in the face of slow land release, increasingly tight anti-urban sprawl policies, and the continous influx of migrants.
So I want some for me - at least a primary residence.
I also want something that I can consider my own rather than having to put up with a landlord.

Oh dear.

You sound like the guy who in late 1999 thought he better buy Tech stocks before they go up much more, afterall everyone else is making money from them.

Mate you live in WA, the emptiest f'n state in the whole world, each of you could have a spare 100 square kms each and there'd still be land leftover.

If you seriously think real estate is an increasingly scarce commodity in Perth you are sadly mistaken.

Perth has had it's boom 4 years after Sydney. I suspect Perth for the next 20 years wont have a boom another like it.

DO NOT BUY NOW IN PERTH!! Show some guts and be patient. In 5 years time you'll thank me for it.

 

[robots]

hello

who's to judge prices are overvalued

surely wages are too low, and this being the real problem

sure people have been fleeced in the property market with banks/valuers tightening valuations and therefore dollars loaned

I believe all good quality "prime" real estate in each state, ie 15km radius of capital city would still be increasing and recent sales in my area indicate this.

places are getting sold in less than thirty days, there is no stock for demand

thankyou
robots

 

[Smurf1976]

Don't even bother with Adelaide, its way over-priced as well, prices here have risen over 150% in 5 years, pricing almost everyone out of the market, not unless you want to live over 1 hour out of the city

Try Hobart.

Same problem in Hobart. A house in the poorest suburbs costs more now than a house in a good middle suburb did 5 years ago and prices are high everywhere around Hobart relative to the incomes of people that live there. A recent report found Hobart real estate to be amongst the most over valued in the in the world. In Australia, only Sydney is less affordable for locals than Hobart.

As for scarcity of land, perhaps there is in Sydney etc but certainly not in Hobart. There's still plenty of land for sale in reasonable areas and it's cheaper now to build on that land than buy an existing house in the same area. That reality alone, that building is cheaper than buying, ought to ensure that existing houses don't rise in price for quite some time.

All that said, I'll be buying real estate when it's sensibly valued again. That day will come, question is when?

 

[Realist]

I believe all good quality "prime" real estate in each state, ie 15km radius of capital city would still be increasing and recent sales in my area indicate this.

You must live in WA, SA or Brisbane. Maybe Auckland?

You certainly do not live in Sydney, and I don't think you live in Melbourne either.

who's to judge prices are overvalued

Me!

Oh and another 5 million people in Sydney. Just try selling a house here at the moment. Ask my friends who had an auction on the weekend without one bid!

 

[Realist]

All that said, I'll be buying real estate when it's sensibly valued again. That day will come, question is when?

Smart man!

 

[krisbarry]

told ya this thread would be a lively one... I love starting threads that members get fired up over :

 

[crackaton]

told ya this thread would be a lively one... I love starting threads that members get fired up over :

Are you related to Bonkers?

 

[tech/a]

Who commenting on this thread owns more than 5 properties?
Who commenting on this thread develops property?

It is these people I seek out they will be the ones who will have qualified opinion.
I'm one of these but interested in others veiws.(No I dont post on Somerset and dont wish to).

Again there seems to be a great deal of Unqualified--qualified opinion.

When i bought my first home in 1975 it was $30000 if someone told me that in 30 yrs time it and every other house in that area was going to be 10X more expensive I'd have been asking the same question---how the hell will anyone be able to buy a house!! I was earning $27/week.

Esplanade blocks were $6000 in Seaford now $400,000---you do the maths!!

Well 30 yrs later thats whats happened!
So why is $1,000,000 or more for the same home not possible in another 10 to 20 yrs??

If i wanted to live in Adelaide I sure as hell wouldn't buy there because it would only be short term.

What do you mean? Do you mean youd only be living there short term?

By the way Many Esplanade properties are owned by Sydney investors (here).
That could well be one secret to their ability to own in Sydney.

 

[crackaton]

Who commenting on this thread owns more than 5 properties?
Who commenting on this thread develops property?

It is these people I seek out they will be the ones who will have qualified opinion.
I'm one of these but interested in others veiws.(No I dont post on Somerset and dont wish to).

Again there seems to be a great deal of Unqualified--qualified opinion.

Own a block of four flats in melbourne. I know nothing about development. What's your point tech/a? I choose to live/ rent where I want. If i wanted to live in Adelaide I sure as hell wouldn't buy there because it would only be short term.

 

[suhm]

Unless your buying an investment property or you've found the house you want to live in for the rest of your life I don't see the point of buying a property which your going to sell in a few years. Who wants all the hassle of maintainace and rates, just let your landlord do it and not to mention the stamp duty and conveyancing fees especially considering how low rental yields are now in the capital cities. Though I might be a bit biased because I will be shuttled around Australia for the next decade during the next phase of my course and after I graduate for training.

 

[Realist]

Well 30 yrs later thats whats happened!
So why is $1,000,000 or more for the same home not possible in another 10 to 20 yrs??

It is possible, who said it wasn't?

Mate, you live in Adelaide, your 5 houses are probably worth about what 1 house in my suburb costs.

It sounds like you are not qualified to speak either.

 

[crackaton]

Unless your buying an investment property or you've found the house you want to live in for the rest of your life I don't see the point of buying a property which your going to sell in a few years. Who wants all the hassle of maintainace and rates, just let your landlord do it and not to mention the stamp duty and conveyancing fees especially considering how low rental yields are now in the capital cities. Though I might be a bit biased because I will be shuttled around Australia for the next decade during the next phase of my course and after I graduate for training.

Armed forces?

 

[robots]

hello

I'm in Melbourne, within 15km from GPO and as mentioned sold stickers are banged up quick as

Sydney's a big place, lets here from people with "prime" real estate as mentioned

not saying house better than share, but just representing whats happening

been looking at next property purchase, and evaluating the numbers on mortgage vs rent,

as can walk out of current place with rent=expenses

I believe the key is what you do with the difference if rent

thankyou
robots

 

[suhm]

med, clinical schools are all over the place and when you graduate you have to go where the accredited training positions are

 

[Realist]

Esplanade blocks were $6000 in Seaford now $400,000---you do the maths!!

Yep. The average house price in my area is $1.95M

So 5 of your $400,000 houses would buy 1 here.

Wait till you buy 5 here before commenting please.


(just kidding , but see how annoying it is when people say your opinion is not worth anything unless you have done such and such?? get your head in, you're 30 years older than me, I could not possibly buy 5 houses in my area in Sydney at my age - and neither could you - NOW)

 

[tech/a]

It is possible, who said it wasn't?

Mate, you live in Adelaide, your 5 houses are probably worth about what 1 house in my suburb costs.

It sounds like you are not qualified to speak either.

God why bother.

and neither could you - NOW

Hmm You presume I own only 5 houses.
I've already stated I'm also a developer.

Bullmarket challenged me once---so wanna bet!

 

[suhm]

Also stop the clock, if i had put all my money into super I wouldnt be able to go overseas to study now, I'd have to wait until I was 65, saving and investing your money is a good thing to do, but in the end your doing it so that you can spend it and since you don't want kids your probably not going to be giving it to someone else, so why quarantine your money for like the next 30-40 years?

 

[crackaton]

med, clinical schools are all over the place and when you graduate you have to go where the accredited training positions are

Don't you just get your degree and then do intern at a hospital?

 

[Mofra]

The theory of renting when the rental paid is less than non-duductable bank interest is all well and good in theory, however in practice very few people have the actual savings discipline to use the spare spending capacity wholly into a savings and/or investment plan.

As some may know I am in the mortgage industry - although have recently changed employment to an investment bank servicing "high net worth" individuals. These people by and large are only borrowing as a result of independant financial advice and the majority of these borrowings are for investment - and only a small prtion of this investment is in residential property.

Yes, houses are overpriced and by and large there will be little return on your investment in some cases - and in most cases the appreciation is pointless, as most home owners do not use their equity effectively.

Many of most financially savvy of my clients do, in fact, have a large property portfolios over more than one property asset class - and believe it or not, many of them still rent (albeit some from third parties inw hich they hold an indirect interest). It is not mortgages these people avoid, it is non-deductable debt.