I have given up buying a house

[nizar]

lol Whose data? Where did you pluck those figures from? Over my years I have made 1000% returns on shares and about 15% on property. :

WELL PUBLISHED AND RESEARCHED DATA, MY FRIEND

I cant find a link right now, but they are well known facts

The sharemarket measures the index (not the cogidubnus return); look at XAO for the last 50 or so years, and its about 13%pa over the long term

I have made several hundred percent from the stockmarket in the last 18months and exactly 0% from property.

Does that make my stats any more valid that yours?

Funny guy...

 

[nizar]

Hmm lets say you have been using just the capital for a singular house investment let alone multiple,with 1000% returns you must be a well known trader having made Multiple Millions.?

Is that you Larry?

haha tech

Larry Williams with his futures was a genius, well at least he was in THAT year (was it 1983?)....

Entered a competition with $10,000 of your own money, see who can make the most in a year trading futures. By end of first quarter 1mil, end of the year 2mil...!! Second place guy was $40,000, still a good effort but way behind....

Then of course started his own fund money started flooding it, by the first month down 50%... he just couldnt do it, maybe coz it was too much money, hard for entry and exit, or just in the mind, i dunno...

But of course he's made several comebacks since then... trader/promotor extroadinare!

 

[cogidubnus]

WELL PUBLISHED AND RESEARCHED DATA, MY FRIEND

I cant find a link right now, but they are well known facts

The sharemarket measures the index (not the cogidubnus return); look at XAO for the last 50 or so years, and its about 13%pa over the long term

I have made several hundred percent from the stockmarket in the last 18months and exactly 0% from property.

Does that make my stats any more valid that yours?

Funny guy...

I cant find a link right now, but they are well known facts
Must be good because you can't even spell to begin with.

 

[wayneL]

I cant find a link right now, but they are well known facts
Must be good because you can't even spell to begin with.

Well we try to be a friendly forum, even if we can't spell.

Cheers

 

[nizar]

I cant find a link right now, but they are well known facts
Must be good because you can't even spell to begin with.

Hmm... yep i thought so!

Interesting how nobody on here disputed my initial remark except u

Maybe its not me with the problem then???

 

[astroboydivx]

Just cause I am a housing Bear does not mean I do not realise that money can be made from housing. All I am saying is the horse has bolted where I live, and that I believe investing in shares suits me better personally, I enjoy it more, I believe I can make more longterm, and I believe with the exhorbetent Sydney prices combined with exhorbetent taxes and poor rental yields I am better off renting and investing in shares at the moment.

I'm the same as you Realist.

I choose to rent. I'm 29 years old. I owned a PPOR (a 1 bedroom flat in Glebe) outright, made 25% or $50k on it, but sold it at the start of last year and put the money in the sharemarket.

Since then my $300k is $450k, and I'd rather buy BHP than get 4% yields renting a house to tenants or owning my own.

One day I'll own a PPOR again, probably two actually. But not before I'm financially independent and worth $2million.

 

[krisbarry]

Here is another example...my sister works in the medical profession earning between $80 to $120 per hour. I spoke with her just yesterday and she said that she would not even touch housing...both from an investing point of view, or just to purchase.

She mentioned that they are over-priced and their is simply little return in this present market.

That coming from an above average joe blow...

God help the average Jow blow and the below avergae Joe blow.

Yep even the wealthy are giving up on the great Australian Dream!

 

[WaySolid]

WELL PUBLISHED AND RESEARCHED DATA, MY FRIEND

I cant find a link right now, but they are well known facts

The sharemarket measures the index (not the cogidubnus return); look at XAO for the last 50 or so years, and its about 13%pa over the long term

I have made several hundred percent from the stockmarket in the last 18months and exactly 0% from property.

Does that make my stats any more valid that yours?

Funny guy...

Not meaning to pick on you but I do like telling people there is value in dissecting printed wisdom and forming your own judgement based on your own analysis. I note some recycled views on LW as well.

XAO 31/1/1956: 120
XAO 31/6/2006: 4880

Which is a 50 year CAGR of 7.69%

And yes we are a dividend loving nation indeed, which will add sauce to your meat pie if you are measuring an accumulation index. But how would an investor in 56 access that index return without the stock specific disasters? Betcha their PPOR from 56 is still standing though.

Gosh I spend too much time on bulletin boards.

** Hmm I should add that anyone making several hundred percent in the market over any 18 month period with anything other than a lunch money account needs to attempt to quantify the lucky fool ratio in their results.

I have plenty of time on my hands at the moment.

 

[YChromozome]

I'm the same as you Realist.

Since then my $300k is $450k, and I'd rather buy BHP than get 4% yields renting a house to tenants or owning my own.

Good to see I'm not alone. I was looking for a house to buy. I'm 28, got just a little over 400k in my portfolio (Shares/Cash) and as of June/July given up on looking - Too expensive. I've been looking for a while. The warning bells (beep, beep, beep) went off in 2003, the evacuation tone (Woop, Woop) went in June/July this year. I evacuated quickly and am now waiting outside the housing market and looking in waiting for the smoke to dissipate.

Oh, and my BHP shares are doing well.

Not to mention those CCP Credit Corp ones too. Just hope there are not too many bankruptcies as debt is harder to recover in these cases. Otherwise business is booming.

 

[WaySolid]

Good to see I'm not alone. I was looking for a house to buy. I'm 28, got just a little over 400k in my portfolio (Shares/Cash) and as of June/July given up on looking - Too expensive. I've been looking for a while. The warning bells (beep, beep, beep) went off in 2003, the evacuation tone (Woop, Woop) went in June/July this year. I evacuated quickly and am now waiting outside the housing market and looking in waiting for the smoke to dissipate.

Oh, and my BHP shares are doing well.

Not to mention those CCP Credit Corp ones too. Just hope there are not too many bankruptcies as debt is harder to recover in these cases. Otherwise business is booming.

I recently heard Peter Spann complaing about gen Y being the laziest, most spoilt and over educated generation in history. But us oldies complaing about youngsters is nothing new in the course of human affairs.

Personally I have no such views, though I wish I had the toys and trips my nephews and nieces seem to always have!

Perhaps the Gen Y's will be very reluctant to become home owners in the future? In Europe it's quite an acceptable idea to rent for life. Who knows?

I would note that the median price for housing rarely takes a dip (ever?) in places like BrizVegas, yes you can't buy a median specifically but it does illustrate the idea that people will tend to hold onto their houses rather than sell at a substantial loss; bank willing. Excellent time to be on the hunt for a PPOR presently I estimate, well at least I am

 

[barnes]

Was a property investor, made good fortunes, but not anymore. Not worth it.

 

[Smurf1976]

I would note that the median price for housing rarely takes a dip (ever?) in places like BrizVegas, yes you can't buy a median specifically but it does illustrate the idea that people will tend to hold onto their houses rather than sell at a substantial loss; bank willing. Excellent time to be on the hunt for a PPOR presently I estimate, well at least I am

Just because you don't sell in a downturn doesn't mean you haven't made a loss at the time.

Same with shares. If you buy XYZ at $5 and it drops to 50 cents then continuing to hold the stock doesn't mean you haven't made a loss. You may well recover that loss if the price goes back up or through dividends, but it's a loss at the time no matter what happens in the future.

"You can't lose with property" is only true if you can be absolutely certain of holding for at least a full market cycle. Given that bubble peaks seem to be about 15 years apart, you can't be certain. Property is thus risky as an investment as are shares - hold the S&P/ASX-200 long enough and that too is "certain" to make a profit. The problem is that you can't be certain of being able to hold long enough.

Not that I'm against investing in property. Just pointing out that it IS possible to lose. Those who bought 2 or 3 years ago in Sydney (and I would argue Hobart too) have done just that so far - lost. They'll probably make a profit eventually, but cash in the bank and delaying the property purchase would have been a lot more profitable over the past 2 years.

 

[clowboy]

astroboydivx, you can't own two PPOR

 

[cogidubnus]

I recently heard Peter Spann complaing about gen Y being the laziest, most spoilt and over educated generation in history. But us oldies complaing about youngsters is nothing new in the course of human affairs.

Personally I have no such views, though I wish I had the toys and trips my nephews and nieces seem to always have!

Perhaps the Gen Y's will be very reluctant to become home owners in the future? In Europe it's quite an acceptable idea to rent for life. Who knows?

I would note that the median price for housing rarely takes a dip (ever?) in places like BrizVegas, yes you can't buy a median specifically but it does illustrate the idea that people will tend to hold onto their houses rather than sell at a substantial loss; bank willing. Excellent time to be on the hunt for a PPOR presently I estimate, well at least I am

Yes I can see that sitting on aproperty that is making no income and costing me money makes a whole lot of sense. Interest rates are not going up again anytime soon, so all is good on the good ship lolly pop. Actually I would compound those loses by buying another property!! ->

 

[cogidubnus]

Just because you don't sell in a downturn doesn't mean you haven't made a loss at the time.

Same with shares. If you buy XYZ at $5 and it drops to 50 cents then continuing to hold the stock doesn't mean you haven't made a loss. You may well recover that loss if the price goes back up or through dividends, but it's a loss at the time no matter what happens in the future.

"You can't lose with property" is only true if you can be absolutely certain of holding for at least a full market cycle. Given that bubble peaks seem to be about 15 years apart, you can't be certain. Property is thus risky as an investment as are shares - hold the S&P/ASX-200 long enough and that too is "certain" to make a profit. The problem is that you can't be certain of being able to hold long enough.

Not that I'm against investing in property. Just pointing out that it IS possible to lose. Those who bought 2 or 3 years ago in Sydney (and I would argue Hobart too) have done just that so far - lost. They'll probably make a profit eventually, but cash in the bank and delaying the property purchase would have been a lot more profitable over the past 2 years.

What is certain in life is death and taxes, and if you are really lucky a death tax. lol ---------------->

 

[juddy]

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=143258

Borrowers lose homes at record rates
Sunday Sep 10 08:08 AEST
In 2002, there were 2,189 home repossessions in NSW following default by the borrower, said a report. (Getty Images)

Borrowers are losing their homes at record rates because of climbing petrol prices and high personal debt, according to the latest NSW Supreme Court figures.

Fairfax quoted figures from the 12 months to March showing repossessions by financial institutions climbed to 4,873 - more than double the number of three years ago.

In 2002, there were 2,189 repossessions in NSW following default by the borrower, it said.

Real estate agents told Fairfax the trend in mortgage repossession sales was gaining pace alarmingly.

 

[Smurf1976]

From the article

"The Reserve Bank has said there are serious bottlenecks in the economy," he said.

"Identified prominently among them are two things: first, a lamentable collapse in training in relation to trade skills, and the second has been a lamentable lack of national leadership on infrastructure issues."

Emphasis mine. Yet another massive cost of privatisation and outsourcing. You pay more for power, water, road maintenance etc and then you pay again through broader effects on the economy through lack of training of apprentices, lack of long term infrastructure planning and so on. At least those with the assets and contracts make a profit...

Real estate agents told Fairfax the trend in mortgage repossession sales was gaining pace alarmingly.

Sounds like the sinking prices etc in the US isn't confined only to that country. Some other reports on this story suggest that houses that were bought for $400K in Sydney are now lucky to get $300K. Taking account of inflation over the past 3 years, that's getting pretty close to a genuine crash IMO, at least in "real" terms.

Whilst I do genuinely feel sorry for anyone losing their home, I disagree absolutely with the notion that the overall trend of an increasing number of repossessions is anything other than one of the most easily foreseeable events of the past decade. It would be truly amazing if such outright market euphoria combined with easy credit didn't end in tears.

I note that politicans are preparing for the inevitable, with John Howard now seeing high house prices as a "bad" thing. That's part of the conditioning process to prepare the public to see falling house prices as "good". Something you wouldn't do if the market were expected to rebound any time soon.

 

[astroboydivx]

astroboydivx, you can't own two PPOR

The wife and I plan on dividing our time between Sydney and Byron Bay

Mind you, early retirement and two houses is a big call for someone who is worth less than half a mill...

 

[Julia]

The wife and I plan on dividing our time between Sydney and Byron Bay

Mind you, early retirement and two houses is a big call for someone who is worth less than half a mill...

Are you kidding???

How could you possibly retire early and own two properties with a net worth of less than half a million?

There must be some other factor you've not mentioned????

Julia

 

[noirua]

You could all try building your own house, and there will be no need to look around or even give up buying. Plots of land come really cheap and with a bit of effort, well errr, "a lot of effort", and then you could post the progress on ASF.


Half price land, here's your big chance: http://www.escapeartist.com/efam/71/Property_In_Australia.html