HST - Hastie Group

[ParleVouFrancois]

I'm not sure what kind of an answer/response you're looking for pedalofogus, reassurance that you're buying at the right time? Or reassurance that you're buying quality?

I've had a look through their recent presentation to Southern Cross Equities and their declining business segment revenues and profits look concerning, and along with their Q1 prediction that "business convictions remain difficult" I would hesitate to put money into this atm.

However there might be an opportunity as most other punters probably think similarly, if HST can stop it's decline it'd be a nice buy at these levels (16 cents per share earnings, 9 cents dividend or about 9%) and if it can even manage to start growing again it'd be a brilliant buy.

That all being said I can see other companies with more exciting potential/value, but if you're a fan of HST I suppose now would be an alright time to get in (I don't really have any knowledge of TA so Technically it might be good to wait until a base is formed, or something).

 

[pedalofogus]

Yeah, that's exactly it. If a base can be formed, then technically it looks pretty good.

The fundamentals look pretty good also, in that the 'forecasted' EPS and DPS are very attractive at these levels.

However, this is a company that has produced profit downgrade after profit downgrade, for a long period of time! And that is the concern i was expressing. How do we know that the profit downgrades have finished?

I am a fan of HST and have been for a long time. I know people who work for HST's underlying businesses, and each business has a very good business model and individually would be attractive businesses. But for some reason, the management of this company (and the company as a whole) seem to be continuously going backwards. Eventually the quality of the underlying businesses will show through in the EPS and DPS of the group as a whole, wont it?

 

[Noddy]

Hastie has formed a solid base in the 90 - 95 c region, an all time low for the company.
Maybe due for a bit of a leg up now that it has resolved it's debt issues for the moment.
Chart looks good after the price has formed a double bottom recently, and has started to ease upwards, albeit slowly.

 

[skc]

Hastie has formed a solid base in the 90 - 95 c region, an all time low for the company.
Maybe due for a bit of a leg up now that it has resolved it's debt issues for the moment.
Chart looks good after the price has formed a double bottom recently, and has started to ease upwards, albeit slowly.

Yes awesome looking chart indeed... or just bullish bias?



Fundamentally... recent bank negotiation to relax some debt convenants until 31 March only. This may be an indication that HST's problems are short term (if you are optimistic sort of person), or that the banks are giving them only a very short leash so they can take another review soon.

Actual result is due late Feb with possible update before that. I would think if they have turned things around, there will be plenty of time to buy after the announcements and before the price moves too far north... imho.

 

[Noddy]

Hello skc

Thank you for your response.
Interested in the chart you have posted on the thread as there is no identifying info on it. Can't relate it to the HST chart.
Must be missing something.

 

[tech/a]

Hello skc

Thank you for your response.
Interested in the chart you have posted on the thread as there is no identifying info on it. Can't relate it to the HST chart.
Must be missing something.

Because its not HST chart.
This is HST chart.
One for the bottom pickers.

 

[skc]

Hello skc

Thank you for your response.
Interested in the chart you have posted on the thread as there is no identifying info on it. Can't relate it to the HST chart.
Must be missing something.

Because its not HST chart.
This is HST chart.
One for the bottom pickers.

LOL.

That's the HST weekly chart turned upside down!

If my upside-down chart looked like breaking up then perhaps there is an upward bias in one's reading of the actual HST chart.

 

[sptrawler]

It is the same old story Australian company doing well, get taken out to dinner by U.S or U.K company get fed a load of $h!!!!!!t and end up buying a crock of it.
You would think they would wake up U.K companies and U.S companies don't sell unless it's a lemon. Just look at B.H.P attempt to buy decent overseas company.
We are the only country that can't wait to get rid of our valuable assets.
Just look at Oz minerals, they were prepared to offload everything for a pittance until the Government said no, then they ended up falling on their feet. It wasn't good management it was just pure luck.
I just hope management can trim costs and overheads and cull loss making divisions. Things don't appear to be getting better an upturn may be awhile comming.
I hold them and I am worried. No smiley faces here

 

[skc]

Cap raising coming up. Looks like a relatively large one. So the chart will probably break to the downside.

Macquarie-advised Hastie is likely to launch an entitlement issue priced at a discount of more than 15 per cent to the stock's last close of 92.5c.

The issue will raise almost half the company's current market capitalisation. Hastie and its advisers have been trying for a month to nut out details of the raising that will help reduce debt.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-capital-markets/story-e6frg8zx-1226022823374

 

[skc]

What a mighty thump today! Down 70% after trading resumed.

Personally I think that's an over-reaction. This company has revenue of $2.5B in revenue and a market cap of ~$70m. This is just about priced at liquidation...

I think someone will take them over if share price stay this low for much longer.

 

[kingkev]

massive correction today...........the downgrades continue and now a bit of a standoff.

Agree, this company could be in someones sights as a takeover target because the slides continue. The reaction today is viscious and hopefully it is a bit of an over reaction

 

[skyQuake]

What a mighty thump today! Down 70% after trading resumed.

Personally I think that's an over-reaction. This company has revenue of $2.5B in revenue and a market cap of ~$70m. This is just about priced at liquidation...

I think someone will take them over if share price stay this low for much longer.

Breaching debt covenants too. Predators would wait for a fire sale when banks are forced to move in imo

 

[skc]

Breaching debt covenants too. Predators would wait for a fire sale when banks are forced to move in imo

They have a 3? Month standstill I think. If PGA and NMS can survive I think these guys have a business that has a chance to turnaround.

I hold a tiny position as of today just to get into any future cap raising.

 

[sptrawler]

What a mighty thump today! Down 70% after trading resumed.

Personally I think that's an over-reaction. This company has revenue of $2.5B in revenue and a market cap of ~$70m. This is just about priced at liquidation...

I think someone will take them over if share price stay this low for much longer.

It all depends on the margins on the work in hand and how well the tender costing was done. I am so fed up with everyone saying how well Australia is going. Take out the miners getting record prices then see how well Australia is going.

 

[poppytom]

My first attempt at this - so hope I get it right.

Of the numerous stocks that I hold, HST is the only DOG - and has caught me by surprise. One thought to bale out around a dollar, for no obvious reason it seemed, other than the price going backwards. Then the company calls for a trading halt and subsequent debacle is now history. Management seems to be an expert in Spin and really should be taken to task, or the market has over-reacted. There seemed to be a strong glimmer of hope from all that I have read, but but perhaps I am being naieve?

Has anybody got a real clue?

Cheers - PoppyTom

 

[sptrawler]

Hello poppytom. Great first post, HST your only dog, look forward to your further posts. LOL

 

[So_Cynical]

My first attempt at this - so hope I get it right.

Of the numerous stocks that I hold, HST is the only DOG - and has caught me by surprise. One thought to bale out around a dollar, for no obvious reason it seemed, other than the price going backwards. Then the company calls for a trading halt and subsequent debacle is now history. Management seems to be an expert in Spin and really should be taken to task, or the market has over-reacted. There seemed to be a strong glimmer of hope from all that I have read, but but perhaps I am being naieve?

Has anybody got a real clue?

Cheers - PoppyTom

Ok so its now clear that you paid too much for your HST shares, assuming you brought in the first place cos you liked the business im wondering will you take this opportunity to average down? buying the same size parcel of shares will lower your average price to about 40 or 50 CPS?

After-all you didn't sell thru the SP slide so were either in complete denial or wanted to hold :dunno: anyway to average down or not? bite the bullet and sell or bite the bullet and buy. :dunno:

This is why i only buy stocks that im willing to keep on buying.

 

[sptrawler]

Ok so its now clear that you paid too much for your HST shares, assuming you brought in the first place cos you liked the business im wondering will you take this opportunity to average down? buying the same size parcel of shares will lower your average price to about 40 or 50 CPS?

After-all you didn't sell thru the SP slide so were either in complete denial or wanted to hold :dunno: anyway to average down or not? bite the bullet and sell or bite the bullet and buy. :dunno:

This is why i only buy stocks that im willing to keep on buying.

Great call So_Cynical if its worth keeping you should buy more, if it's not you should fff it off.

 

[Country Lad]

There was a slight increase on the 2 days after the announcement but then all was digested and it fell further over the next 4 days. The market has made its assessment.

It is not logical that there will be any increase until they can prove the corner has been turned. Buy more and average down? Sorry that to me is up there as a critical rule never to do. It is a dog until proved otherwise and that may very well be a fair while off.

If it were me, I would sell and put the money into others going up, not leave it in something which is languishing and could do so for quite a while.

Cheers
CL

 

[poppytom]

Great to hear from you guys out there.
Yes I did buy to hold LT. I liked the actual business and the stock was recommended strongly, originally at higher prices, by a couple of what I consider to be reputable newsletters. My own analysis about 12 months ago, was compatible.
So, I did average down as suggested - but was about to pull the pin primarily due to gut instincts, when the trading halt was called.
Hastie management has been clever at talking the company and prospects up and at the same time presenting the financial information in a manner possibly hiding the inevitable truth. While I might be naieve, I don't see that as being ethical, or complying with due governance.
We are all to believe it seems that the plight of the business is purely due to external factors? I do know that many share-holders theatened to pull the bin and dump the stock in anger as trading recommenced - and apparently must have.
Does HST still have a business or not???
Cheers.