How to trade and/or invest profitably --- without the Bullsh*t

[tech/a]

Its Nearly Feb and the world is trying to vaccinate in a global pandemic--- 2021 AUSTRALIA DAY.

I've been trading 30 years ---In that time I've had countless people contact me wanting to know the "Holy Grail"
The "Secret Sauce". I've traded Both Systematically eg "Techtrader" as seen in Radges book "Unholy Grails"
and Discretionary. Bought Houses from profits ---blah blah. I've worked with many successful people,
Quants and Programmers and those who dont use either.

But me I've only ever worked with a handful of people,---never for any fee--I dont want money---just time.

I've decided to put this thread together to help every newbie, and every trader who has varied success
but just cant put that consistency together. ---- to remove the BULLSH*T It will take a little time---see above.

BUT

It will be only a few pages no padding ---it will be thought provoking and may challenge some.
It is NOT what some think it will be. The last thing we need is pages of --- well stuff!!! (ing)
You WILL be able to apply it Instantly.

Here is the Crux

Markets are ruled --and so is your/our success--by.

Macro Economics
Micro Economics---and
SUPPLY.

That's it!

I have a favorite mantra.

You need to know what you dont need to know
before you can know what it is you need to know.

Its my intention to take out the first line which fills countless books
seminars,courses and threads and topics and absorb massive amounts
of time and often hard earned cash. While there is ---some--- value in most
there is precious little to most of us. Lots of Chaff. Confusion reigns.
Im going to bring it together.

In the pursuit of giving all of us more time and understanding.
I want you to know Exactly what I've found I needed to know!
I want YOU to know!

There are no secrets regardless what some would have you believe.

Ill be back (soon enough).

 

[Country Lad]

Well tech, we agree so far. Reminded me, add another year to my sig. Have I been trading that long - must getting real old.

 

[tech/a]

Well tech, we agree so far. Reminded me, add another year to my sig. Have I been trading that long - must getting real old.

Haha we both are — not liking this getting old stuff
Just another thing we can’t do gracefully!

 

[qldfrog]

Its Nearly Feb and the world is trying to vaccinate in a global pandemic--- 2021 AUSTRALIA DAY.

I've been trading 30 years ---In that time I've had countless people contact me wanting to know the "Holy Grail"
The "Secret Sauce". I've traded Both Systematically eg "Techtrader" as seen in Radges book "Unholy Grails"
and Discretionary. Bought Houses from profits ---blah blah. I've worked with many successful people,
Quants and Programmers and those who dont use either.

But me I've only ever worked with a handful of people,---never for any fee--I dont want money---just time.

I've decided to put this thread together to help every newbie, and every trader who has varied success
but just cant put that consistency together. ---- to remove the BULLSH*T It will take a little time---see above.

BUT

It will be only a few pages no padding ---it will be thought provoking and may challenge some.
It is NOT what some think it will be. The last thing we need is pages of --- well stuff!!! (ing)
You WILL be able to apply it Instantly.

Here is the Crux

Markets are ruled --and so is your/our success--by.

Macro Economics
Micro Economics---and
SUPPLY.

That's it!

I have a favorite mantra.

You need to know what you dont need to know
before you can know what it is you need to know.

Its my intention to take out the first line which fills countless books
seminars,courses and threads and topics and absorb massive amounts
of time and often hard earned cash. While there is ---some--- value in most
there is precious little to most of us. Lots of Chaff. Confusion reigns.
Im going to bring it together.

In the pursuit of giving all of us more time and understanding.
I want you to know Exactly what I've found I needed to know!
I want YOU to know!

There are no secrets regardless what some would have you believe.

Ill be back (soon enough).

Looking forward for your posts.
Especially as i am trying to systemise a BO algorithm and this is an area you excel (as well as the other domains)
I am sure many will appreciate your direct approach!
I also believe psyche in greed, FOMO and scare is a major factor in the market,and so success, and mastering these is important, but looking forward to your experience

 

[kenny]

Also looking forwards to your posts @tech/a and the ensuing discussion.

@qldfrog we should also borrow the latest acronym, FUD to accompany the traditional FOMO in factors influencing market participant behaviour. It's hard for me to digest the extremes of emotions exhibited by the "Robinhood-esque" traders (don't know if they're all young or not)

 

[Joe90]

?

 

[lindsayf]

Very keen to hear your distilled knowledge and learning Tech.
I think I know a bit about what I don't need to know and a bit about what I need to know.
But I'd like to know more about both.

 

[qldfrog]

Very keen to hear your distilled knowledge and learning Tech.
I think I know a bit about what I don't need to know and a bit about what I need to know.
But I'd like to know more about both.

I know mostly what i do Not know, and took me 20y to go there ?

 

[tech/a]

Regardless

Of the countless courses,books,You Tube Videos,software packages
System formulas,and endless corporate balance sheets and projections
all YOU and I need to do to trade consistently profitably and spectacularly so is---

Find Momentum
Maximize profit
Mitigate loss

Nothing more and nothing less.
You dont need to be a certified accountant who can analyse a companies potential through their
published Balance sheets.(But you can)
You dont need to have system that has been tested over millions of trades (But you can).
Nor do you need the latest technical indicator/s (But you can).
You dont need to diversify over 20-30 stocks (But you can).
You dont need $100,000's or Millions of Dollars (But you can)

Sure you'll need to have a good plan---Im going to show you the CRUX of mine and it wont cost you a cent.

Its not about being RIGHT
Its about being profitable.
People do it everyday ---they Dumb it down and Find these (below)
AND
Its not that hard
You dont have to get ALL of the move
You dont even have to get 50% of it to be Spectacular in your returns!

Im pretty sure @Value Collector has at least 1 of these.

You can be wrong 70% or more of the time and get it right 30% and STILL have amazing returns.




Spectacular returns to me are over 100% on whatever stake you use
to trade / year. Above are 4 tickers (and there are many many more) that in 12 mths
have gained 280% to over 1000% ----Most WATCHED!

Next :-

Macro
Micro
and Supply.

Followed by:-

Finding Momentum
Maximizing profit
and Mitigating loss

 

[gartley]

As a baseline to the above it helps if first:
1/ Stockmarket has had a crash wiping off 39%
2) The stocks you are buying where pummeled in the process and where previously trading at much higher levels.

As these are probably once in 10 or 15 years events then it's highly unlikely these sorts of returns can consistently be made every year.

 

[tech/a]

As a baseline to the above it helps if first:
1/ Stockmarket has had a crash wiping off 39%
2) The stocks you are buying where pummeled in the process and where previously trading at much higher levels.

As these are probably once in 10 or 15 years events then it's highly unlikely these sorts of returns can consistently be made every year.

Damn secret’s out then!—-Macro

 

[tech/a]

Nothing stops a tidal wave

Super Macro Economics.

Think Global Financial Crisis.
Covid 19
World stimulus packages.

These move all markets and believe it or not you'll see signs of
the wave coming.

These rare outliers can do some of the greatest damage and provide some of the
best opportunities for your trading and investments.

You need to be aware of the coming Earthquakes. Have a proactive interest in your investments.
Whatever profits you have are yours. Minimizing open profit loss is more important in my view than
minimizing initial capital at risk losses.



Macro Economics

A rising tide floats all boats.

Think Government policy
Inflation
Deflation
Interest rates
Unemployment.
Taxation

All and more can have major impact on your trading and investments
Trade with the tide long or (short (indexes for me)).


Micro Economics

Strongest stock in the strongest sector
Strongest stock in an emerging sector.

Think individual company or sector decisions to increase demand
Influence production costs
Distribution costs and increasing Market share and profitability.
Filling a need better than competition.

By lining up as many of these ducks as you can you are working WITH the market not against it.
Discretionary traders should be aware of what phase their market and investment is as viewed
in all of the above. For BOTH long and short opportunities-- Eyeing Risk all the time!! Liquidating a
deep in profit long term hold to re purchase at a far lower price can be massively advantageous to
your portfolio. In ALL Economic shocks.
Systematic Traders who ignore the above will find they struggle to find a consistently profitable method
or are for ever looking for the holy grail. Thinking that surely they have missed something---they have!
Building a long system which performs in well outlier situations will be one that can be liquidated during
shocks. One size CAN'T fit all



Next
SUPPLY

 

[tech/a]

Ok -----Now that we know that the main drivers of any Market or stock generally are
We can get into the MEAT of TRADING

SUPPLY

Supply is the driver of price. In just about anything.
Too much supply and Price will stagnate at best and Fall at worst.
If supply withdraws the if in demand then buyers will pay more to purchase.
Its evident in Housing,Commodities,Indexes and of course the stock market.

Often we wont IMMEDIATELY know the driver but there will be a reason why
Supply increases or supply withdraws.

* We need to be able to recognize with drawl of supply where buyers are happy to pay more
as early as possible so we can ride the increase in price.
* We need to know (On various levels due to various holding time frames) when Supply increases
and is willing to accept lower and lower pricing---so that we can get off the bus with as much
profit as we can within the trading Plan and time frame we are involved in.

I have found that I can do this very consistently reading Volume and Price bars and patterns on Charts.

***All analysis can do is give us an INDICATION of possible future price action so we can ANTICIPATE it.
It is up to us to place ourselves at the least risk---if proven in correct with the maximum potential---if proven correct

So here is MY meat of trading
Indication of a sustained move can in the direction of which Im trading (or NOT) can come from a very wide range of
sources. An Announcement, a disaster, a Gap in price ,An expansion in the range of price, A with drawl of Supply within a pattern,
an increase in supply in a breakout OR and up move, and so it goes on.

Im a visual guy I can see things particularly if repeated time and again automatically. I dont have to sit there and ponder for
minutes or hours over my decision---I see it its instant. If I cant see it and It hits---all of us are likely to miss it unless we are
fortunate enough to preempt it.

I trade Various Time frames and use predominately two trading ways---Discretionary --Very short (Minutes at a few Hrs --Futures)
To a day or so more or less (stock) To longer term System trading --- (Which I will speak on later) for now the discretionary ideas Ill present for the basis of finding/entering and exiting stock in a number of systems I/we use (No I wont be disclosing them but a variant of Tech Trader in Radges book "Un Holy Grails" is one.

I want Momentum and I want it to continue NOW. If I think I have a strong indication and I buy I want it to move away from my buy price instantly -- I dont want it to stall and I definitely dont want it to reverse!!
I have no emotion--if it stalls or reverses it either move my stop UP or Sell out
Im no stranger to being off on my timing ---I can do something about that if Im trading Discretionary but if trading a system I have to ride it out according to my proven system rules.

So lets look at some examples of indications of Momentum and how we can anticipate it both entry and exit. Ill use daily and weekly but similar is true for All time frames. There are some nuances which go with very quick moves and looking at 5/15/60 min charts but I wont muddy the water---

Below is a running Commentary on ERA a past trade. Only looking at how I read Momentum and Supply through a couple of trades.
In 1 move------Im sure you'll see it as clearly as I did.



NEXT

More chart examples of Momentum /Supply/Indication and Anticipation.
In small caps,Mid caps and Blue caps.

FOLLOWED BY

Minimizing Risk
Position sizing
I want Proof!
Stops
How I move stops--UP never down!!
Getting it right AND wrong!

Do you prefer full size charts or Thumb nails?

 

[Austwide]

Full size charts please, it allows me to quickly refer to previous charts

 

[samuilk]

I'm looking forward to your next post. I will re - read thread multiple times. Question which broker do you trade with?

 

[qldfrog]

Ok -----Now that we know that the main drivers of any Market or stock generally are
We can get into the MEAT of TRADING

SUPPLY

Supply is the driver of price. In just about anything.
Too much supply and Price will stagnate at best and Fall at worst.
If supply withdraws the if in demand then buyers will pay more to purchase.
Its evident in Housing,Commodities,Indexes and of course the stock market.

Often we wont IMMEDIATELY know the driver but there will be a reason why
Supply increases or supply withdraws.

* We need to be able to recognize with drawl of supply where buyers are happy to pay more
as early as possible so we can ride the increase in price.
* We need to know (On various levels due to various holding time frames) when Supply increases
and is willing to accept lower and lower pricing---so that we can get off the bus with as much
profit as we can within the trading Plan and time frame we are involved in.

I have found that I can do this very consistently reading Volume and Price bars and patterns on Charts.

***All analysis can do is give us an INDICATION of possible future price action so we can ANTICIPATE it.
It is up to us to place ourselves at the least risk---if proven in correct with the maximum potential---if proven correct

So here is MY meat of trading
Indication of a sustained move can in the direction of which Im trading (or NOT) can come from a very wide range of
sources. An Announcement, a disaster, a Gap in price ,An expansion in the range of price, A with drawl of Supply within a pattern,
an increase in supply in a breakout OR and up move, and so it goes on.

Im a visual guy I can see things particularly if repeated time and again automatically. I dont have to sit there and ponder for
minutes or hours over my decision---I see it its instant. If I cant see it and It hits---all of us are likely to miss it unless we are
fortunate enough to preempt it.

I trade Various Time frames and use predominately two trading ways---Discretionary --Very short (Minutes at a few Hrs --Futures)
To a day or so more or less (stock) To longer term System trading --- (Which I will speak on later) for now the discretionary ideas Ill present for the basis of finding/entering and exiting stock in a number of systems I/we use (No I wont be disclosing them but a variant of Tech Trader in Radges book "Un Holy Grails" is one.

I want Momentum and I want it to continue NOW. If I think I have a strong indication and I buy I want it to move away from my buy price instantly -- I dont want it to stall and I definitely dont want it to reverse!!
I have no emotion--if it stalls or reverses it either move my stop UP or Sell out
Im no stranger to being off on my timing ---I can do something about that if Im trading Discretionary but if trading a system I have to ride it out according to my proven system rules.

So lets look at some examples of indications of Momentum and how we can anticipate it both entry and exit. Ill use daily and weekly but similar is true for All time frames. There are some nuances which go with very quick moves and looking at 5/15/60 min charts but I wont muddy the water---

Below is a running Commentary on ERA a past trade. Only looking at how I read Momentum and Supply through a couple of trades.
In 1 move------Im sure you'll see it as clearly as I did.

View attachment 119667View attachment 119668View attachment 119669View attachment 119670View attachment 119671View attachment 119672View attachment 119673View attachment 119674View attachment 119675

NEXT

More chart examples of Momentum /Supply/Indication and Anticipation.
In small caps,Mid caps and Blue caps.

FOLLOWED BY

Minimizing Risk
Position sizing
I want Proof!
Stops
How I move stops--UP never down!!
Getting it right AND wrong!

Do you prefer full size charts or Thumb nails?

Full size please,not easy on phone but so much better on the big screen.
Thanks again as i was actually working on a BO system.so far so good compared to your approach for entry

 

[tech/a]

I'm looking forward to your next post. I will re - read thread multiple times. Question which broker do you trade with?

Interactive Brokers ——IB

 

[lindsayf]

Hi Tech

Can you explain or reword this sentence pls?

“If supply withdraws the if in demand then buyers will pay more to purchase”

 

[tech/a]

Charting (The Ducks way)

Im looking for Extremes.
Reactions to Extremes
Testing of Extremes.
Patterns that form after an Extreme.

This is where Opportunity is found.

 

[tech/a]

Hi Tech

Can you explain or reword this sentence pls?

“If supply withdraws ----- then---- if in demand buyers will pay more to purchase”

So If Holders of anything decide to keep their supply and not release it
to others then Buyers will offer more in the hope of purchase.