How much RED for ASX 200 on Monday?

[professor_frink]

Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?

anyone looked at kitco tonight? Is the 15% fall for nickel right?

kinda glad I'm out of everything right now
and crying like a little girl coz I'm not short

 

[visual]

Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?

can someone please tell me why today of all days yahoo australia and yahoo uk shows the ftse as being about 40 points difference australia shows 40 less than the uk site ,in the red that is.

 

[wayneL]

Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?

can someone please tell me why today of all days yahoo australia and yahoo uk shows the ftse as being about 40 points difference australia shows 40 less than the uk site ,in the red that is.

Dunno Visual,

Try futuresource.com

You'll get the futures price (delayed 20 minutes) as opposed to the cash, but there won't be a big difference... unless all hell breaks loose.

 

[nizar]

Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?

Sheesh, I'm glad a few of you can laugh at the days trading (probably all selling short!)... "kill me" by Adam Sandler was all that was running through my head!!!

I'd be happy if it only slips another 40pts tomorrow!

im expecting 100pts + and the beginning of an october style 8% loss correction

thatll bring us back to around 4800-4900 on XJO

does anybody know what are the technical support levels?

 

[michael_selway]

Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?

im expecting 100pts + and the beginning of an october style 8% loss correction

thatll bring us back to around 4800-4900 on XJO

does anybody know what are the technical support levels?

really that bearish?

its really hard to say, but what makes u think that?

thx

MS

 

[ctp6360]

Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?

all the stuff I'm reading tonight scares the living **** out of me, but based on my own gut feeling and my trading plan I think everything is set to bounce back, if not tomorrow, certainly by the end of the week....but people here have a LOT more experience than me, maybe I'm about to be taught a painful lesson? I'll take back all those drinks I offered YOUNG_TRADER and use the money for food!

 

[Sean K]

Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?

Hang in there ctp!

People forget very quickly what a little correction is like. They happen a couple of times every year and this isn't even one of them yet! Another 4-6% to go!

So, hold on and be ready to grab a bargain in long term commodities bull!

 

[ctp6360]

Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?

thanks kennas, although I have never experienced it before first-hand, it is my gut feeling that this is a temporary stepping stone in an ultimately bullish market. I've noticed the tension building for a while and I think that a little bit of a sell off will actually make people MORE confident when the trend actually resumes, well that's what I hope.

I am definitely on the lookout for buying opportunities, although I'm thinking I should have listened to wayneL and started buying one day later....

 

[wayneL]

Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?

really that bearish?

its really hard to say, but what makes u think that?

thx

MS

Mick,

That's not really bearish at all. Look at the chart. I have drawn several trendline scenarios.

The market could retrace all the way to 4300 - 4400 and STILL be very bullish. We're so far from the mean it's ludicrous.

Cheers

 

[ctp6360]

Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?

The Dow Jones is in positive territory today, up only 0.19% but at least it isn't falling any more.

http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/

I think this is a good sign that this dip/correction is only temporary and it will be very interesting 1) how the Dow Jones fairs for the rest of the day and 2) if the ASX follows suit again tomorrow.

I wish you bastards didn't teach me about watching commodities prices and foreign markets, now I'm going to end up trading all of them and just never sleeping, let alone preparing for the meeting I have tomorrow morning!

 

[wavepicker]

Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?

The Dow Jones is in positive territory today, up only 0.19% but at least it isn't falling any more.

http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/

I think this is a good sign that this dip/correction is only temporary and it will be very interesting 1) how the Dow Jones fairs for the rest of the day and 2) if the ASX follows suit again tomorrow.

I wish you bastards didn't teach me about watching commodities prices and foreign markets, now I'm going to end up trading all of them and just never sleeping, let alone preparing for the meeting I have tomorrow morning!

ctp6360,
after 2 days and some 300 pts lost, the Dow is just taking a bit of a breather before the next leg down starts.

Personally I think if this is the early stage of the decline us bears have long anticipating. If this is the case, then a long term decline possibly all the way back to 3700-3800 would not be out of the question. That is the key long term level of support. If this high is the end of a long term 3rd wave(1200-5300) which I think it is, then 38.2 % retrace would be typical.

Cheers

 

[Sean K]

Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?

Technically you might be right wavepicker, although I haven't analysed those numbers myself.

Some people will argue that the general market has gone up for a fundamental reason, not on the back of speculation. PEs are still close to the historical mean. (Except for a lot of the specie stocks which are gambled on and don't even have PEs)

Even though commodities do play a large part in the All Ords and ASX measures it's the big players (BHP, RIO, NCM, WPL) who make up a large % of the indicies and they are still on reasonable PEs. Thier fundamentals are sound.

During a correction like the one we may have started (or it could be a blip) it'll be the speculative/high PE/exploration stocks that are hammered and fall even more than the general market. The problem for a lot of new players to the market who use this site are that they are jumping on the speccies and not basing their portfolio on value.

There is every chance they'll all spring back though. Look for bargains over the next few days.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?

I'll take back all those drinks I offered YOUNG_TRADER and use the money for food!

:nono: Too late, I've already issued a margin call for those drinks, they had better be delivered in T+3 days, else your advisor account shall be suspeneded! :drink: :bier: :alcohol:

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?

On a serious note, I remember last year reading something about this pheneomenon called 'Sell in May and go away'

Ring any bells?

Also isn't this more of a cyclical thing, I could swear we had a huge sell off in May last year

 

[professor_frink]

Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?

On a serious note, I remember last year reading something about this pheneomenon called 'Sell in May and go away'

Ring any bells?

Also isn't this more of a cyclical thing, I could swear we had a huge sell off in May last year

have a look at this post from charttv- goes into performance month by month. It will give you a good rundown on the 'sell in may' theory.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3336

last year we had a selloff that went from the end of march through to mid may.

 

[professor_frink]

Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?

here's the spi monthly analysis-

 

[bullmarket]

Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?

Hi nizar

im expecting 100pts + and the beginning of an october style 8% loss correction

thatll bring us back to around 4800-4900 on XJO

does anybody know what are the technical support levels?

re technical supports, below is a replay of my earlier post describing where I see general technical support for the XJO....and with the avge market PER's I posted yesterday I think it's quite possible that XJO could trade in the 4800-5000 range at some time in the next few weeks but I would be surprised if it fell below the 4800-5000 trading range from earlier this year.....unless of course there is some major bad local or OS news.

hi ctp6360 - good luck but beware the 'dead cat bounce'

I'm not convinced it's all doom n gloom yet looking at the weekly XJO chart.

It's too early for me to say whether this is the start of something more sinister....it may or may not be

One should try to keep in mind that we have been in a roaring bullmarket since Mar 2003 and so a correction will come at some stage as I and others have said in other threads.

The way I see it, XJO had support at ~5150 in early April, so the first thing I'll be watching is whether that level is retested soon.

If it is and it fails to hold then the next level of support I'd be looking at is the ~4800-5000 trading range of Jan/Feb this year.

cheers

bullmarket

cheers

bullmarket

 

[lewstherin]

Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?

Man today aint looking good either.
Discounted sell orders are stacking on pretty much every speccie I've either bought into or have been following...

Methinks I may get out and let the dust settle before returning!

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?

Wish I had more money,

Would buy more JML, BMO, its like a Myer Bargain sale!

CBH if it drops lower as well


I'm not fussed @ all, for some reason, it doesn't seem to bother me that I'm giving back PROFITS, because the market will pick up again

So I'm right now,

I'm surrounded by lawyers who are :swear: Sell Sell, I'm losing $80k omg, sell!

I'm trying to tell them, but they don't want to listen

 

[Sean K]

Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?

All three of those stocks could be bargains right now.

Although gold and silver have paused the slide, wait for Tocoms response. There still could be more pain.

I hope not, my 42ft ketch has turned into a 36footer.